Musical chairs for 2013 not over yet

There were two major players in the driver market this year and it was all about waiting for them to make their mind up.

Michael Schumacher couldn’t make a decision on his future quick enough, much like when he brakes, so Lewis Hamilton took the decision and made the jump to Mercedes which instigated the move from Sauber to McLaren for Sergio 

Perez. So where does that leave the driver market?

Well it means that most of the top table seats have gone for 2013. Lotus have all but confirmed Kimi Raikkonen and Romain Grosjean to remain for next season, so the only seat remaining is Felipe Massa’s at Ferrari.

Other drives which look open are both seats at Sauber, which judging from this year would actually be quite attractive for many drivers.

Force India will probably confirm both current drivers if they don’t get a better option. Paul di Resta had been rumoured for a move to either Mercedes or McLaren but has obviously missed the boat. I imagine Toro Rosso will have to keep faith for at least one more year with their current incumbents.

Williams have had the pace this year, and despite his many incidents Pastor Maldonado has displayed a huge amount of speed, which if he can learn from his mistakes can be harnessed better next year; he’s also got a bunch of Venezuelan money. Bruno Senna has been the more reliable driver but unfortunately has not had the spark that Maldonado has had. The likelihood is that their third driver Valtteri Bottas will be promoted.

That leaves the three new teams with only Timo Glock at Marussia and Pedro de la Rosa at HRT pretty much certain.

Ferrari

As great a story as it would be I can’t see Schumacher going for the Ferrari seat alongside Fernando Alonso. No it would be much more worthwhile getting a younger driver who’d be willing to learn from the Spaniard such as Nico Hulkenberg. He’s the main person being linked to the drive, but it’s most likely to be Felipe Massa.

So the rumours go, Sebastian Vettel may already have signed a pre-contract with Ferrari for 2014, and I think if that’s the case Hulkenberg wouldn’t go for just a year. Heikki Kovalainen might, he was adequate back up to Hamilton at Mclaren, but he’s grown a lot since leading Caterham so I’m not sure he would want to accept a subservient role.

No, the most likely scenario seems to be to keep Massa for one more year and then see what the options are, after all he is gradually improving, and you’d hope Ferrari would make an easier car to drive next year for Massa to sit on the tail of Alonso.

Sauber

So the seats at Sauber are when it’ll get really competitive. Sauber traditionally have helped younger talent develop so it might not be a surprise to see a GP2 star get a seat, they have 3^rd in the 2012 championship Esteban Gutierrez on their books, but I’ve a feeling they won’t hire him as he seemed a bit erratic this year. Perhaps they might take a chance of the top 2, champion Davide Valsecchi and runner up Luiz Razia.

Kamui Kobayashi should be allowed to stay, but the team seem to have gone cold on him, with a lot of rumours in the F1 press persisting that his drive was under threat. Perhaps they’ll have a change of heart now Perez has gone, so they at least have some continuity.

The main players for these seats seem to be Jaime Alguersuari and Heikki Kovalainen. Of those drivers I see Heikki eventually remaining at Caterham with Vitaly Petrov. He’s come too far with them to give up on it now, although if there’s no progress next year, he’d be well within his rights to jump ship.

Alguersuari has to be a favourite for a seat at one of the high end midfield seats. I thought he played a starring role in the Toro Rosso during 2011, often making strategies work on less stops like Perez has been doing this year.

He was pretty unceremoniously dropped, he was just about to get off the learning curve and was really developing. He’d have made a good bench mark at least for one of the two current Toro Rosso drivers at least who have no one to learn from and so far have been fairly unremarkable.

However, this situation has allowed him to be Pirelli test driver, so he has the inside scoop on the new compounds for 2013, and according to his twitter account is very hopeful of securing a drive. I think he’s going to be at Sauber next year.

Schumacher

The interesting story from the Hamilton fall out was that Schumacher has not instantly announced his retirement. In fact there's been no mention whatsoever. 

His representatives were seen at Sauber in Singapore and it is known he's still weighing up the options despite the loss of his drive. It would be like going full circle in a way as he was at the Sauber Mercedes sports car team when he got his opportunity in Formula 1.

I’m not sure that would be the most dignified of career ends for a driver of the calibre he once had but he loves to race so maybe he’s not quite done with it yet but he'd surely know that he'd have no chance of another title or probably a win despite this seasons Sauber form. Would he really have the motivation to not be working towards a higher goal than points finishes? 

At least at Mercedes there was that belief of a title challenge, at least to start with. It'll be interesting to see his choice. However, Brawn has said there would be a place open for him at Mercedes in an as yet unspecified role.

The remaining seats

This then leaves us with the final ‘new’ teams as it were. As I said I think Kovalainen will end up staying at Caterham and Petrov might get another year.

There seems to be a revolving door concept for the second drive at Marussia, so a new GP2 star could take the place of Charles Pic, such as their current reserve Max Chilton, or Jules Bianchi who’s been in the third driver role at Force India.

Meanwhile at HRT I can see them potentially employing the Chinese driver Ma Qing Hua who’ve they’ve given some practice run outs too. Of course he would come with some money, and there’s the other thing, especially with these new teams, budget does play a part. Actually it plays a part for most teams these days.

So here’s some of the options for next year.

Ferrari – Alonso and Massa/Hulkenberg as an outside possibility.

Red Bull – Vettel and Webber

McLaren – Button and Perez

Lotus – Raikkonen and Grosjean

Mercedes – Hamilton and Rosberg

Sauber - Alguersuari/Kovalainen/Kobayashi/ Gutierrez/Schumacher/Razia/Valsecchi

Force India – di Resta and Hulkenberg/Bianchi/Alguersuari

Toro Rosso – Ricciardo and Vergne

Williams – Maldonado and Bottas/Senna

Caterham – Kovalainen and Petrov

Marussia – Glock and Pic/Razia/Valsecchi/Chilton

HRT – de la Rosa and Hua/Karthikeyan

all photo's from autosport.com

Lewis Hamilton chooses Mercedes

Today Lewis Hamilton made one of the biggest decisions of his career when it was announced that he has signed a three year contract to join Nico Rosberg at Mercedes from 2013; thereby leaving McLaren, the team he’s been with for half his life.

Is it a crazy decision? It’s certainly not the most expected decision despite the rumours, but we’ve all got to leave home sometime I suppose and stand on our own two feet, and in a way I think that’s exactly what Lewis has done. 

It’s a very brave decision to leave a team with the history and success of McLaren, but with Ross Brawn heading up the Stuttgart squad it’s surely only a matter of time before they’re consistently challenging for wins.

It’s an opportunity to create something that Michael Schumacher had with Brawn at Ferrari, an era of dominance. Whether Hamilton is as patient as Michael was to build a team up to sustain that success is another matter and one I’d question.

Of course you also have the image rights that seemed to crop up when people were weighing up the pros and cons of both teams. McLaren are notoriously strict concerning their drivers personal sponsors and the many days of PR has to do, whereas Mercedes will let Lewis’ IXI management exploit his marketing potential to earn him extra millions although the actual monetary offers to drive ended up being fairly similar.

Whether that was the tipping point to leave I don’t know but for someone who’s said many times he just wants to win, it’s a curious decision. 

Admittedly since Lewis’ brilliant first two years in Formula 1 when he ended up as World Champion, he has suffered some frustrating times.

McLaren couldn’t provide him a car to put up even a half decent title defence in 2009, and again in 2010 and 2011 the car has not been of the same calibre as the Red Bull, he’s had to watch as Sebastian Vettel took away his youngest ever world champion record from him, then rack up the poles and wins on his way to a dominant second title.

This has not sat well with him, because he knows his talent deserves more success than he’s been able to have. Lewis is almost certainly the fastest driver out there and his relative lack of success was evidently frustrating him. 

Coupled with off track issues he’s had and the fact he doesn’t seem to really get on with McLaren boss Martin Whitmarsh quite as well as Jenson Button, he has at times seemed like quite a beleaguered figure.

This year started off nicely with pole position, but pit stop mistakes and unreliability have again cost him to the extent that with six races left, it’ll be a hard ask to win this years title when they’ve actually had a very competitive car. It’s not going to help their challenge either, there may be tension in the team now the decision has been made, and also any new parts and advancements for next year will be shielded from Lewis.

However, McLaren are great developers and Lewis has managed to win races every year he’s been in the sport. Mercedes have 1 win since they returned as a factory squad. Since their previous guise as Brawn, they haven’t looked anywhere near being consistent challengers.

But they do have Ross Brawn, they are a factory squad and in 2014 when there are major rule changes, especially to the engines when we get Turbo’s back, Mercedes would seem like the place to be, they make strong engines, and McLaren by then will be a customer team. They’ve also been strengthening their design departments over the last year and half, that’s got to come to fruition at some point.

So has Lewis made the right call? Only time will tell, but a Brawn project has rarely failed and if it goes right there’s no reason why he can’t aim for the success that Schumacher achieved at Ferrari. Hopefully he made the choice for the right reasons, but good luck to him, it’ll be quite the challenge, which is possibly just what he wanted.

Sergio Perez joins the top table

Of course that means there was a space at McLaren to fill, and Sergio Perez is that man. I think it’s a good choice, of the up and coming drivers he’s certainly been one of the best, his three podiums this year have been fantastic.

Ferrari still apparently deemed him to inexperienced for them to replace Felipe Massa, obviously McLaren think otherwise, but I think the Italian team may have missed out here, and privately they must be a bit annoyed after helping him with their young driver program.

It’ll be interesting to see how he copes in the top team environment. I think he’ll do well but I also think McLaren will be fairly devastated to lose the likes of Lewis as evidenced by them saying they think he's made a mistake to leave. Perez has room to develop but right now, they're lacking one of the top three drivers in the sport, the others being Alonso and Vettel.

Perez has been great in the races more often than not, but his team mate at Sauber Kamui Kobayashi has out qualified him a fair amount, and Jenson Button isn’t exactly renowned for being super fast on a Saturday.

However, they’re both great on a Sunday, it’ll be an interesting battle between Perez and Button, I can actually see Button thriving as the senior member of the team, and if he can get the car designed around him to give him what he wants more often, Lewis leaving could be the best thing ever for him.

What now for Michael Schumacher?

Of course this decision means a certain seven time champion has been pushed to the side lines. This wasn’t what was meant to happen, and it’s really quite sad that Schumacher’s career could end like this. I can imagine Mercedes coming good soon, and it’s a shame that he won’t be there to potentially reap the rewards, as despite silly crashes this is the fastest he’s been since his comeback, regularly as fast or faster than Rosberg.

He’s not announced retirement though, and rumours say he might go to Sauber. It would be strange for someone with his success to lower himself to Sauber, despite their fairly successful 2012. Then again, it would a completion of some weird circle as just before he drove in F1 he was driver for the Sauber-Mercedes sports car squad.

Ferrari haven't confirmed Massa yet, but a move there is highly unlikely.

According to Autosport, Mercedes started to pursue Hamilton when Schumacher couldn’t make a decision whether to continue driving or not, so in effect his indecisiveness has cost him his seat, but he was aware of what was happening, and perhaps his lack of announcement so far means he really is considering driving for another team.

So, that was an exciting day of Formula 1 news, first major change at one of the top 3 teams since 2010, it’ll be fascinating to see how it all works out next year. Meanwhile there’s still a championship to decide in 2012, McLaren and Lewis still have six races to pull this back.

all photo's from autosport.com

Vettel back on track after Hamilton woe

Lap 23 Lewis Hamilton comes down the gears leading into turn 1, suddenly the engine is revving erratically, the gears momentarily hovering between 3^rd and 4^th before falling into neutral, forward momentum is rapidly decreasing. He urgently flicks the paddles behind the steering wheel looking for a gear, hitting the steering wheel in frustration as he sees his championship hopes depleting; Vettel is already through into the lead and more crucially, Alonso has passed and on his way to another podium.

Under the lights Sebastian Vettel kept his hopes alive of a third consecutive drivers title after taking his second victory in Singapore after a gearbox failure thwarted Lewis Hamilton’s charge to the top.

Behind, Jenson Button kept up McLaren’s points tally but once again, Fernando Alonso got his Ferrari up to a podium slot to keep his advantage a win away from anyone else. It’s looking rather ominous for his rivals as no one can keep up the consistency the Spaniard is producing.

That won’t matter to Vettel tonight though, against the backdrop of the lit up Skyscrapers and Marina Bay he threaded his Red Bull through the streets to take what ended up being a fairly comfortable win that hit the time limit of 2 hours after safety car interludes.

He was fastest in all three practice sessions, but couldn’t manage pole position and he was visibly down about it after qualifying. Finding himself third on the grid he leapt up to second almost straight away, tucking in behind front row starter Pastor Maldonado into turn two and cutting to the inside into turn three to set him up for a long time studying Lewis Hamilton’s rear wing.

For the next 20 laps or so Hamilton and Vettel exchanged lap times, with only Button and Maldonado just about able to keep up up to the first pit stops. A few times the Red Bull closed, but you always got the feeling Lewis could pull out a gap when he needed.

Lap 23 it all changed for Vettel, Lewis slowed and the Red Bull flew into the lead and from then on it was a game of reversal as this time a Red Bull kept the McLaren of Button at bay. Jenson didn’t get close enough to have a go, apart from a wince inducing moment during the first safety car period where Vettel braked suddenly and Button just missed smacking into the back.

By the end Vettel had opened up a 6 second lead as Button’s tyres faded. It was a good drive from him, passing Maldonado was important to keep him in touch with Lewis, and he made some incisive passes after his first pit stop to not lose much time at all as the field behind delayed their stops.

After the disaster at Monza it was crucial for Vettel to score some big points, and he now  becomes the main challenger once again, 29 points behind, as he and Alonso fight it out to see who’ll be first to grab a third world title.

Hamilton’s gearbox woe as Button takes second

That closest challenger probably should have been Hamilton who said he was comfortable in the lead and just maintaining a gap. If he continued to the end he’d probably be sitting just 24 points behind Alonso, as it is he’s 52 behind with just 6 races to go and 150 points remaining.

He couldn’t really afford anymore retirements now he certainly can’t. It must have been gut wrenching for his McLaren team when on lap 23 Lewis came down the gears into turn 1 while leading, suddenly the engine is revving erratically, the gears momentarily flickering between 3^rd and 4^th, before falling into neutral, forward momentum rapidly decreasing.

He urgently flicks the paddles behind the steering wheel looking for a gear, hitting the steering wheel in frustration as he sees his championship hopes depleting; Vettel is already through into the lead and more crucially, Alonso is passed and on his way to another podium.

His engineer came on the radio telling him they did everything they could yesterday, so it seems like McLaren had a ticking time bomb in the car and they were rather hoping it wouldn’t explode until after the race.

A great shame for Hamilton who produced an outstanding lap on Saturday to claim pole by half a second, but he’s not out of the title fight yet, he’s in probably the fastest car at the moment and looked to be on his way for his fourth win of the year. He’ll still have something to say in this title fight yet.

Button made sure McLaren were still on the podium with second place. He’s now three race wins behind Alonso, any chance of a comeback is surely gone now. Still, he was a close contender all race and he’ll be looking to continue his good recent form in Japan.

Alonso in good fortune shocker

Alonso is just always there isn’t he? He knows his Ferrari team need to keep up the development pace, they’ve now fallen behind McLaren and Red Bull and they will eventually string some results together and come at him.

But yet again Alonso is on the podium after starting 5th, his eighth of the year. He didn’t look to have much pace in the opening stint, but once he’d switched from the super soft tyres to the softs he was easily capable of matching the and sometimes beating the pace of the leaders.

He had an intense fight with Maldonado which so many times looked like it might end in tears, but Pastor just 

about gave him enough space, and when the Williams pitted for a third time during the first safety car and then retired from hydraulic failure after an impressive race and qualifying, Alonso was safe in third to keep him well on top of the title chase.

His team mate Felipe Massa drove a stormer to end up 8^th after starting 13^th, but contact and a resulting puncture dropped him to last at the end of the first lap. From then on in clear air he was outpacing the leaders, admittedly the safety car helped him close up, but he put his Ferrari right on the edge as he climbed into the points.

Nothing shows this more than when he squeezed passed Bruno Senna, it looked like he’d lost the back of the car but he squirmed through and put another decent move on Daniel Ricciardo to end up with 4 points.

di Resta puts in impressive showing

Perhaps the star of the race was di Resta who at one point looked like he could be on the podium. He was 6^th in qualifying and maintained that in the early stages of the race, managing his tyres carefully.

His second stop came on lap 33 as the Safety Car came out for Narain Karthikeyan’s HRT to be picked out of the wall at turn 18. That was four laps after Alonso had pitted and now he was right behind the Ferrari with fresher tyres.

The race restarted on lap 39, but immediately the Safety Car was back out after Michael Schumacher collided with Jean-Eric Vergne, this unfortunately meant Alonso had more opportunity to rest his tyres, so any critical drop off was never going to come.

But it was a great afternoon for the Scotsman and it will have increased his exposure to the top teams should they come calling for next year, well once Hamilton and Schumacher sort out their lives.

Safety cars once again in Singapore

Talking of the safety car incidents, Karthikeyan’s was a simple case of hitting a wall, Schumacher and Vergne’s seemed more like the Mercedes drive was trying to use the Toro Rosso as a launch pad. It didn’t work very well.

Obviously the immediate thing the media do is question whether Michael’s too old for this as he looked to have made a major misjudgement. However, mistakes are made by everyone and he’s more than proved this year that he’s capable of still getting very good results.

More importantly he feels something may have gone wrong as he’d already slowed for the corner before he locked up as it wouldn’t decelerate. Not sure the team thought the car had a problem as they came on the radio with a rather exasperated “what happened there?” The stewards also have kindly awarded him a 10 place grid penalty for Japan.

Lotus lack the leading pace

One driver who was probably quite pleased Schumacher got so spectacularly out the way was Kimi Raikkonen who’d been sitting behind him for the entire race. The fact Schuey got rid of Vergne too and caused a second safety car which meant he’d definitely be close enough to jump ahead of the two stoppers who still needed to use both compounds such as Nico Hulkenberg and Sergio Perez, and three stopping Mark Webber was even better.

After this he only had to have his team mate Romain Grosjean move out the way and he ended up 6^th after running a long time just outside the top 10. It wasn’t a great weekend for Lotus, they never seemed to have much pace to be near the front. The dark horse for the title needs some development quickly if it’s not to be put back in the stables.

At least they should introduce their double DRS/passive F-duct in Japan, we’ll see if that revitalises them, but for now Kimi has dropped off the pace in the championship, but is still remarkably third in the standings.

Grosjean came back after his race ban and kept out of trouble to come home with  a decent 7^th place.

Rest of the top 10

Nico Rosberg cheered the Mercedes team after his team mates crash with a very good 5^th place after starting 10^th. Both Mercedes had chosen not to set a time in Q3 so they could choose which tyres to start. Surprisingly they just went with what the other top 10 runners did, the super softs, albeit brand new sets.

However after running solidly in the opening stints and coming out ahead of Grosjean in the first stops, the safety car ensured that Rosberg, like Kimi would gain a few places as those around him stopped for fresh boots. Hulkenberg and Perez’s days were scuppered by the safety cars as well as eventually running into each other and Kamui Kobayashi. Sauber didn’t have a good day.

Ninth was Daniel Ricciardo who put in a great drive. As others fell and pitted around him, he kept it on the track and defended well when Mark Webber hounded him for the final few laps.

Webber couldn’t get through and he continues a poor run of form, that was compounded when he gained a 20 second penalty for passing Kobayashi off the track. I think that’s harsh myself but it sees him fall far behind his team mate, I think any realistic shot at the title has gone for him. Strange that since he won at Silverstone he’s hardly looked like getting near the podium again.

Sergio Perez is eventually awarded the final point, but major congratulations to Timo Glock and Marussia who take 12^th place, their best result ever, and it moves them ahead of Caterham in the constructors table.

Despite ‘kissing’ the wall, Glock put in a great drive and while all around him got in trouble, he managed to still bring the car hume in a fantastic result for the team.

In two weeks Formula 1 will be in the far-east for a double header; Japan then a week later Korea. Can Alonso keep getting on the podium? Will McLaren win then not retire that car a race later? Will they and Red Bull actually string together results to catch the Spaniard? And will Kimi ever get a win this year? We’ll find out in two weeks.

all photo's from autosport.com