The Russian Grand Prix Forecast

The Formula 1 community is still in shock after the horrible accident that has left Marussia’s Jules Bianchi with a severe head injury confirmed as a diffuse axonal injury which usually comes from the effects of rapid deceleration of the head and affects the nerves in the brain.

No new information about Bianchi has been reported for the past few days, but one can only hope that good news will emerge soon, but as with Michael Schumacher’s skiing accident it seems likely that any more information will take time and patience.

F1 also suffered a loss as former F1 driver Andrea de Cesaris lost his life in a motor bike accident. He had several shots a winning a race but was largely known for crashing a lot and being Schumacher's first team mate in a race where de Cesaris could have won if it weren't for an engine problem. But he must have had some talent as he competed in 208 races, the most without winning one.

It’s been a  tough few days just to get the show back on the road, especially with Typhoon Phanfone slowing down the packing up process in Japan and then shipping it off to Russia for the first Russian Grand Prix based at the Sochi Olympic Park which held last year’s winter Olympics. 

There’s been a fair amount of discussion on whether Formula 1 should even be in Russia with the conflict in Ukraine still happening but as always the FIA policy is not to get involved in politics so if there’s no safety reason not to go, then Formula 1 will go. It’s a market many of the big company names also want to be seen in.

Let's focus on the racing though. The track winds its way through the Olympic stadiums and first impressions seem to show that this will be a pretty spectacular track. Of course the teams will have prepared themselves to the extent of having a baseline set up aided by their simulators, although they haven’t been able to map the track as significantly as others as Williams chief technical officer wrote in his preview for F1 Racing magazine, it’s ‘difficult to obtain permission for LiDAR scanning in Russia’ which helps map the topography.

But it doesn’t really matter how well prepared you are, racing for the first time on a brand new circuit is always going to throw up some surprises that weren’t accounted for. It looks to have a few high speed sections and Sebastian Vettel, who has driven a road car around it, has said there’s some technical challenges too. It’s not quite a step into the unknown but it is a foot into a puddle you’re not sure of the depth of.

There are two DRS zones, one on the start finish straight and the other between turns 10 and 13 which might give you a small indication that that piece of track isn’t exactly straight. Pirelli have brought their medium and soft tyre and are expecting the track to be quite abrasive so it could be a three stopper but if the teams get on top of any issues quickly it could be a two. There doesn’t look like any chance of rain, all three days are forecast for bright sunny days with temperatures averaging 23C, so after the racing it’s a nice day for the beach situated on the coast of the Black Sea.

Nico Rosberg won’t be thinking about the seaside though, he’s aware he has to turn the tide against Lewis Hamilton this weekend. After suffering three defeats in succession he really has to win this weekend to not lose any further ground. He scored a fine pole position in Japan but yet again in wheel to wheel combat Lewis was better and able to get ahead.

When Rosberg has been in that position such as in Bahrain or Spain he has not managed to find a way through hence why the incident in Spa happened. He wanted to show Lewis he wouldn’t be pushed around, but perhaps Spa has now made even more apprehensive about taking on Hamilton in battle.

Whatever it is, he needs to show he can beat Lewis this weekend, he can start that by simply being quicker and driving off into the distance but the last three races have shown they’re going to be neck and neck. Rosberg is going to have to fight hard to claw any points back.

For some reason as much as the tension is rising as we enter our last four races of the year, I can’t help but feel that the final double points round in Abu Dhabi is taking some of that excitement away. The likelihood is that Lewis won’t manage to get a 50 point gap to Nico by then, so the significance of the rounds before is diminished.

We all know it’s going to the final round, who cares if Lewis eeks out another seven points to make a 17 point advantage, this race despite the present gap is not a make or break round for Rosberg. I think that’s a shame. However in terms of momentum it is significant and he has to strike back now.

The championship battle may be the major talking point after concern for Bianchi but there are plenty of other matters to get excited about, many of them off track especially as regards the driver market.

It seems like Vettel and Ferrari outplayed Fernando Alonso last weekend. Although the Scuderia has not officially confirmed either Vettel’s arrival or Alonso’s departure this transfer is likely to take place. Vettel will line up alongside Kimi Raikkonen, at least for now. Kimi struggled again in Japan and will be desperately hoping for something to go right for him soon.

Alonso seemed quite happy with his situation last weekend and so the rumours go a deal with McLaren Honda for next year might well have been signed. Or it’s being delayed because he wants just a one year deal in case Honda don’t bring the goods and so he’ll be available should a seat arise at Mercedes in 2016. Hamilton wants to stay, Mercedes want him to stay but should he leave for whatever reason then Mercedes boss Toto Wolff hasn't backed away from saying they'd have Alonso but I'd say that is unlikely.

It all looks like he might be backing himself into a sabbatical and as Autosport.com pointed out, potentially leave him unable to get back into the sport should Mercedes, McLaren and even Williams retain their 2015 driver line ups. It’s unlikely but could this be an ignominious end for the career of a driver regarded as the best for the last eight years.

Jenson Button did himself no harm at all with a brilliant driver in Japan for McLaren as his team mate Kevin Magnussen floundered, while also doing a good job was Jean-Eric Vergne, looked over by Red Bull once again beating his senior team bound team mate Daniil Kvyat. Both Button and Vergne need to maintain this form if they want to be in Formula 1 next year while Kvyat will look to get back on track at his home race.

Back to the racing, you can only assume that Mercedes will be leading the field with Red Bull, Williams and Ferrari in pursuit. I don’t expect any surprises with the result, it’ll be a Mercedes win, but I do expect the battle behind to be close again.

McLaren were good in the wet of Japan but in the dry of Russia they’ll be scrapping for lower end points as they hope to leap ahead of Force India finally. Toro Rosso will be tagging along in that battle while unfortunately once again, Lotus, Sauber and Caterham will find themselves on the fringes.

Marussia are reported to be preparing two cars for this weekend, but it’s not yet known if or when they’ll announce another driver for the second seat alongside Max Chilton. All the drivers have shown great concern for their colleague Bianchi, but once the visor comes down they’ll be focused only on being fast. The best thing they and the world of F1 can do now is put on a great show. #ForzaJules

all photos taken for autosport.com except title picture from skysports.com/f1

Can Bianchi's crash improve F1 safety?

Jules Bianchi crashed at yesterday’s Japanese Grand Prix, striking a digger that was recovering Adrian Sutil’s Sauber after it had crashed at the same turn 7 a lap previously. He suffered a severe head injury that has been operated on and is currently in intensive care at the Mie General Medical Centre in Yokkaichi. The world of Formula 1 is now reflecting on what could have been done better to prevent such an accident happening again. They must analyse but there also must not be knee jerk reactions that affect the sport in a detrimental way.

Formula 1 has not suffered a death at a Grand Prix for over twenty years now. Since 1994 the sport has had a few broken legs, a couple of concussions and the dreadful accident of Felipe Massa during the Hungarian Grand Prix weekend in 2009 where he fractured his skull from which he made a full recovery. It has come so far in terms of safety but there is always room for improvement. But first of all would we even be discussing safety if Bianchi had missed the recovery vehicle? Probably not but we should have been as regards recovery vehicles on track.

When rain is pouring down and getting stronger and a car has already gone off with light fading should there be an immediate safety car? There are many instances where if one car has gone off another might follow. Look at the 2003 Brazilian Grand Prix or the 2007 European Grand Prix where cars only just missed a recovery vehicle. Only a few weeks ago for the American round of the World Endurance Championship, over 10 cars went off at the first turn on the same lap because the rain had become too much. These warnings were not taken on board but such is hindsight.

Yesterday the original Sutil crash was covered by double waved yellow flags, which means slow down and be prepared to stop. It alerts the drivers to the presence of machinery and marshals on or near to the track. However as much as drivers might lift off, they’re still going at speed. Perhaps in future in these sort of conditions, and even in the dry, before a digger or other safety vehicle can come on track a safety car must be called to neutralise the race.

Martin Brundle almost had a similar accident in 1994 at the same circuit, just missing the recovery vehicle but striking a marshal, he has been advocating something being done about this for years.

Another option if possible would be to make circuits have more cranes so as to pluck the cars off the track without the need for a recovery vehicle, although it wouldn’t always be possible. Therefore we can eliminate the use of a safety car to slow racing after every accident which is what 1997 world champion Jacques Villeneuve has said today.

I’m not sure all incidents need to be covered by the safety car, in the Formula 1 world where we have increasingly sanitised race tracks with large run off areas, it’s not always necessary. It’s no coincidence that Suzuka is a favourite amongst the drivers because it’s a challenge but it’s also one of the more dangerous with limited run off, it gives them an extra thrill. However, maybe in the aim of prevention it is time to deploy the safety car if ever there’s a car on track that needs a recovery vehicle, especially in the rain.

There are also questions about whether the race should have been moved to an earlier start time because of the impending typhoon approaching the area. In the end as the drivers have admitted, conditions weren’t too bad. I think it should have been moved as they had advance warning of possible torrential rain, but purely because the 3pm start time doesn’t leave a lot of room in case a race is delayed as dark descends at 5.30pm at this time of year in Suzuka. The FIA asked if circuit owners wanted it moved but it was deemed unnecessary because of ticket holders getting to the track on time. I don’t think it had anything to do with TV coverage especially as the FIA were the ones asking if it should be moved.

Further to that it was wet all day, the Bianchi accident could have happened at any time of day such were the conditions affecting Suzuka so in the end when the race started had no on the accident and the organisers were right in the end. After scouring the F1 press, there was another call from the Guardian newspaper for canopies covering the cockpits.

The head is the most exposed part of a driver in single seater racing and there have been times when you wince as a car comes near a drivers head such as Vitantonio Liuzzi launching near to Michael Schumacher's head in Abu Dhabi 2010 or Romain Grosjean going over the top of Fernando Alonso's head in Belgium 2012. Recent tests regarding them are ongoing. In Bianchi’s accident I don’t think a canopy would have made much difference, in fact it could have made things worse. It looks like his car went partially underneath the digger, if it had gone headfirst a canopy might have trapped him in the cockpit, or caused more damage to his person.

A canopy might be good for preventing wheels or other pieces hitting the head at speed, but in an accident when striking a large vehicle such as this, which should never happen, but its debateable whether it would have made any difference. And my personal view is that covering the cockpits takes away part of the drama of Formula 1, it’s a step too far. With wheel tethers in place and helmet safety constantly being improved I don’t think there’s a need for canopies. Next they’ll want guards over the wheels which might as well make them look like small LMP1 cars from the WEC, you just need to cover the suspension.

Formula 1 and single seater racing in general is open wheel and open cockpit, I think it’s part of the essence of the sport. Pick the right spot at a race track and there isn’t something more impressive than seeing a driver battle with his machinery.

I think as long as Formula 1 learns from this accident then they can keep the sport at an acceptable danger level because Grand Prix racing is inherently dangerous, it’s never going to be completely safe when you strap a man or woman into a 200mph car and ask them to push it to the maximum. It of course has to be an acceptable risk for the drivers to participate, although if things hadn’t become so safe, I don’t think there’s a single driver out there who wouldn’t still be pushing for all their worth.

I often think of F1 drivers as modern day gladiators. Their arena is the race tracks of the world, their weapons the machines they drive to the limit, sometimes beyond. It’s hard to grasp just what kind of skill they possess to keep their cars on the limit of adhesion as they battle wheel to wheel for the glory of winning. It’s as true now as it was when the sport started.

For many drivers that danger is like a drug, the thrill, the surge of adrenalin as they push the fastest cars in the world in their pursuit of victory. It’s like no feeling in the world to them dancing on the line between life and death. Obviously they want to race in the knowledge that everything is being done in regards to safety but you know it can’t be completely safe, I think many of them like it that way, witness Kimi Raikkonen, foot flat to the floor in Spa ploughing through a cloud of smoke at the top of Eau Rouge which he had no idea what it was covering. Foolhardy or impressive?

For us mere mortals watching from the comfort of our sofas it’s an admiration that these supremely fit athletes push their machines and bodies in conditions that we would immediately wilt in. Theirs is a sport that can take them to the edge of life as they confront extreme heat, battle the rain, the g-forces, and they do it willingly to feel alive, to be the best, to live their dreams. They are singularly focused people who will not give up on what they want. Most drivers who reach Formula 1 have been craving a desire to be in the ultimate sporting combination of man and machine since they were children.

They’ve pushed themselves, fought hard, never backed down and maintained their passion and drive to succeed through all kinds of sporting setbacks, but they’ll pick themselves up and continue to push to achieve what they set out to do.

Even the drivers at the back of the grid are exceptionally gifted. Bianchi is one such driver, meant for greater things than the brilliant two points he took for ninth place driving for back of the grid Marussia. A Ferrari Academy driver, he seemed destined to move up the grid and go for glory.

At Suzuka he was once again leading the Marussia and Caterham battle pushing hard in a car that in general terms is not a match for the midfield bunch let alone the top cars. But he was doing something he loved, pushing to the maximum. Hopefully he can make a full recovery from his injuries and continue his rise up the Formula 1 ranks. 


all photos taken from autosport.com except canopy picture from formula1.com

Lewis Hamilton wins in Japan

It hardly seems to matter as we learn that Jules Bianchi has suffered a severe head injury following his accident at the Japanese Grand Prix. After surgery he will be transferred to intensive care. There are more details here. But there was a race today that got underway on time behind the safety car. It was then stopped after two laps and restarted behind the safety car before finally racing commenced after nine laps.

The conditions were not good but were safe to race on despite the uncertainty surrounding the event because of the approaching typhoon. In fact as racing got going properly the rain had relented and it was only towards the end that it came back in force.

Nico Rosberg led for the first 28 laps including a switch from full wet tyres to intermediates. Lewis Hamilton tracked his Mercedes team mate for all those laps never letting him get much further than two seconds away. He again ignored advice from the team to hang back and attacked Rosberg as he sensed the German’s tyres were wearing quicker than his own.

Hamilton began to push harder, even too hard as he had to catch a slide into turn one sending him wide but he was still in the race. Only a few laps later he was right behind Rosberg again coming into the final chicane at the end of the lap. Rosberg’s car squirmed under acceleration out of the final corner and across the line into lap 29 Lewis had the DRS open. Nico couldn’t see in his mirrors and went straight to the inside for the first corner.

It opened the turn for Hamilton and judging the grip to perfection he went around the outside of Rosberg and was through into the lead. He quickly opened a gap and through another pit stop for more intermediates he led until the race was slowed by a safety car for Bianchi’s accident and then finally stopped with seven laps to go and the result declared.

It was another telling statement from Hamilton to Rosberg about where this title could be heading as he opened a ten point gap in the drivers championship. It was great to see the silver cars battling wheel to wheel once again.

It was his eighth victory of the year, four more than Rosberg has managed. It’s beginning to look like Lewis now has the decisive edge. Having said that Rosberg did take pole position this weekend and he’s always there to take second. To be suffering an 8-4 victory deficit and only ten points behind, Rosberg is a man of consistency and that could still pay off especially with the double points round.

Behind the title contenders Sebastian Vettel produced a great drive to finish third, although he was fourth on the road behind his team mate Daniel Ricciardo when the race was stopped but in a red flag situation the result is taken from two laps before.

Despite a trip through the gravel he made a couple of good moves on the Williams cars before pitting early for his second stop and jumping a heroic Jenson Button to be in third. He was only lying behind Ricciardo as the Australian had yet to stop, although it wasn’t sure if he would.

Ricciardo followed Vettel for most of the race despite out qualifying him and was never far behind, making brilliant moves on the Williams cars in the esses  as he kept up with the current world champion. But this is two races in a row Vettel has beaten him. He’ll want to rectify that especially with Vettel moving on from Red Bull and Ricciardo becoming team leader. He won’t want people believing that once Vettel got on top of his issues with the car he would have been consistently beaten, although that’s highly unlikely after the season he’s enjoyed.

Jenson Button ended up fifth after suffering a problem at his second pit stop but he was my star of the race. When the safety car pulled in to let the race get underway he immediately pitted for intermediates. When everyone else pitted a few laps later he had judged it brilliantly to end up in third place, lapping at the same pace as the Mercedes pair.

When he came in for the second time only an electrical problem that resulted in a change of steering wheel and which his McLaren team mate Kevin Magnussen also suffered from dropped him behind Vettel. The Red Bull’s had compromised their qualifying by going for a full wet set up and Button really had no response to that once they were close.

He did manage to remind people just how good he is in the mixed conditions and it was timely too with his drive and career under threat after the recent driver moves. A fifth place finish doesn’t sound wonderful but as the rain came down harder towards the end he was one of the first to pit for full wets again, it was then that the race was brought to a premature end, so you never know, it could have been a podium.

The Williams boys held a second row lock out after qualifying but ended up sixth and seventh with Valtteri Bottas ahead of Felipe Massa. Their car hasn’t looked good in the wet all year so it was no surprise to see them drop back a bit, but they held on to take some solid points and tighten their top three position in the constructors ahead of Ferrari.

This was helped greatly by Fernando Alonso retiring with an electrical failure while behind the safety car. Such a shame as I think he could have been a podium threat. Kimi Raikkonen failed to score and ended up 12^th after being nowhere all day. It stops Ferrari’s run at 81 consecutive points finishes. After two successive failures I’m sure Alonso can’t wait to be out of there.

Force India just about held on to fifth in the constructors ahead of McLaren with Nico Hulkenberg getting eighth and Sergio Perez tenth. Despite a grid penalty leaving him 20^th on the grid Jean-Eric Vergne seemed to come from nowhere to claim two points with ninth beating his team mate and the new Red Bull graduate Daniil Kvyat once again.

Sauber had Esteban Gutierrez in 13^th, Magnussen eventually got home in 14^th with the Lotuses 15^th and 16^th, Romain Grosjean ahead of Pastor Maldonado. Marcus Ericsson headed the Marussia Caterham battle ahead of Max Chilton and Kamui Kobayashi.

But it is Jules Bianchi who our thoughts are with. Adrian Sutil’s crash the lap before meant a safety vehicle was brought onto the track covered only by waved double yellow flags. Perhaps the conditions warranted a safety car, Sutil explained that as the rain got harder he was experiencing aquaplaning.

It seems Bianchi suffered a similar accident; it was just unfortunate a safety vehicle was already at trackside which the Marussia struck. I wish Jules Bianchi a speedy recovery. 

all photos taken from autosport.com and bbc.co.uk/formula1