Belgian Grand Prix preview

The break is over and Formula 1 is back to continue the show at the fantastic Spa-Francorchamp circuit in Belgium. The few races before the break saw an order beginning to form, or at least a more consistent establishment of teams challenging for the podiums; Red Bull, McLaren, Lotus and Ferrari are our contenders as we begin the run in to the finale.

The weather forecast at the time of writing is mainly of rain on the official F1 site, but cold and dry on the BBC site. This is no great surprise for Spa, it’s always a bit of a mix there but if and when it rains and how much of it could decide the outcome of the race. I would make a confident prediction, but despite the big teams beginning to stretch their legs ahead of the plucky midfield challengers, that old chestnut of tyres is likely to prove decisive.

Let’s lay down the general basics of what we know about the top four teams and those balls of rubber. Lotus seem to like hotter temperatures and are ok in the rain. McLaren like cooler temperatures and are good in slippery conditions but if it rains hard they can’t maintain their tyre temperatures.

Red Bull have been pretty much on the pace everywhere, but some places they’ve been that bit more on the pace than others. Ferrari seem to have a wide operating band in all conditions, at least with Fernando Alonso at the wheel.

So what does that tell us? Not much, because we’ve not had a completely wet race this year on these tyres and on full fuel loads. In Malaysia we had a race of mixed conditions in which Sauber and Perez starred but Ferrari and Alonso won. Alonso also took pole position in appalling conditions at both Silverstone and Hockenheim; logical conclusion? Alonso wants it to rain this weekend.

Otherwise I think he could be in for one of his damage limitation weekends as I just don’t see them having clawed back the down force over the break they still need to be right at the front at a place like Spa. McLaren with Lewis Hamilton and Jenson Button could be a force if it remains cooler but dry. McLaren definitely made a step forward before the break and Lewis will want to use Spa to kickstart his challenge for the title, but as I said if it rains hard they could struggle.

The sweeping corners of Spa should fit perfectly with Red Bull, I can see Sebastian Vettel getting on pole here in dry conditions; he was utterly brilliant last year and desperately needs a win. Remember he had a slight wobble coming up to last years break and hadn’t won for a few races, he came here and blew them all a way. If he can do that, his championship charge will ignite.

Mark Webber too is pretty good in Belgium, his pass of Alonso around the outside into Eau Rouge was jaw dropping. 

I think Lotus are in for good times over the coming weeks. Kimi Raikkonen is their main title challenger despite no win yet, Romain Grosjean hasn’t quite got the consistency of Kimi, but he’s certainly not lacking for pace and either one could take a win especially if their new passive F-duct/double DRS works which should enable them to stall the rear wing even without DRS, definitely a benefit during the race. Belgium and the next race in Italy should be ideal for such a technology.

Kimi is a master around Spa whatever the weather, if Lotus have managed to sort out their qualifying issues and he can get up near the front there’s no reason why the win they should have had ages ago can’t finally arrive.

If the race is mixed conditions look out for the Sauber’s. Their car seems to be especially capable in using the tyres in those conditions and would be a good outside choice for victory if all the stars align especially with Perez.

Williams continued their good form in Hungary with both cars qualifying in the top 10. Bruno Senna was quick last year in the Renault, and if Pastor Maldonado doesn’t crash into anyone, they’ll be hovering around the top 10.

Force India will be looking to stay with them, the only midfield team not to have a truly impressive result, at Spa though anything can happen. Nico Hulkenberg has certainly proved before that he’s good in mixed conditions and Paul di Resta too can generally handle anything.

Mercedes have struggled of late. Michael Schumacher has kind of deflected it a little bit in qualifying with two thirds in recent meetings, but come the race they just can’t keep up with the leaders as they still don’t have a handle on how to use the tyres consistently.

Schumacher is generally brilliant around Spa, he put in a great drive last year to charge from last to fifth to celebrate the 20^th anniversary of his debut race. This time round he’s knocking up 300 Grand Prix, so watch out for him to put in a decent performance especially if it rains.

It's still difficult to predict anything for sure this season, but here are a few options for whatever the weather. If it’s hot, Kimi; if it’s cool and dry Lewis or Vettel; if it rains Alonso; if it’s mixed conditions Perez or Schumacher. I think the bases are pretty much covered there but trying to predict anything with these tyres is still very random.

But Formula 1 2012 is unpredictable and after five long weeks away it’s finally time to get back on the track and see who looks likely to be king; let’s get racing.

all photo's from autosport.com

Nine to go; who can beat Alonso?

Finally after nearly five weeks the Formula 1 summer break is almost over. There are just a few days until battle recommences for the five drivers still in with a realistic shot at the title and what a place to start at; one of the most exhilarating tracks in the sport; Spa-Francorchamps in Belgium.

Truth be told the teams and maybe even viewers needed a break before 12 weeks of Formula 1 overload with 9 race weekends scheduled until the end of the season.  It’ll hardly seem like there’s a break worth mentioning with the relentless onslaught of races taking us to a championship showdown on November 25^th in Brazil.

That is of course if there is a showdown at all. Currently Fernando Alonso leads the pack by 40 points, that’s over a race win ahead of the chasers. If he can maintain the consistency we’ve seen from him so far and grab another opportunistic win or two, then there’s plenty to say that the party will be over a little sooner than expected despite the previous unpredictability of the 2012 season.

Alonso has performed better than we’ve ever seen him but as Mark Hughes in the latest edition of Autosport pointed out the Ferrari has a much larger operating window with the tyres than other teams come rain or shine, hot or cold, and since the fifth round in Spain have largely been hovering near the front. Of course it’s not as simple as that at all; the Ferrari still isn’t the quickest car, it’s a lot better than it was at the beginning of the year, but a world beater it certainly isn’t. McLaren, Lotus and Red Bull pre break were all quicker at the last race in Hungary. Development is still needed.

We also have the fact that Alonso has moulded Ferrari into a Schumacher style squad. He is now a clear number 1, probably has been for some time. The focus is almost entirely on him, Felipe Massa, if he ever gets ahead will not be there for long as the radio crackles into life. Ferrari now live and breathe Alonso’s title assault.

Massa had been getting on Alonso’s pace in recent races, he’ll need to maintain that if he wants to keep a drive for next year and more importantly for Ferrari, to enable him to knick points off the Spaniard’s nearest rivals. It’s definitely not a situation where it’s Alonso’s title to lose, but …

Leading the charge are the Red Bull’s of Mark Webber and Sebastian Vettel. I’ve got a strange feeling about Red Bull, mostly they’ve been one of the quickest cars on the track, but for some reason I just don’t see them mounting a sustained title charge. By that I don’t mean they’ll not be there at the end, I just don’t think it’ll be quite enough.

With Webber once again challenging Vettel, there is currently no consistent leader of the team. They’ll both continue to be up there fighting for the big points, but world champions? I don’t think so, unless you’re talking about the constructors title, in which case I think that is a done deal for them.

Webber has shown 2010 form again when he challenged for the title all the way up to the last race, now the blown diffusers are supposedly outlawed the car has suited him. However, the evidence from the last couple of races isn’t exactly encouraging accruing just two eighth places.

Vettel has on occasion looked frustrated. When the car hasn’t been bang on the pace he hasn’t been able to produce the form we became used to last year. However when it does go right, he’s capable of perhaps more than anyone else, just look at the way he was dominating Valencia before an alternator failure robbed him of victory.

Red Bull have been pushing the regulations this year, and they’ll continue to push them, so far they’ve not done anything wrong enough to be disqualified so I won’t be surprised to see them dominate a few races, but this season is too mixed up for them to go on a roll and what with two drivers up there, something I don’t see changing, I think Vettel’s time as champion is up, at least for now but I think he'll put up a strong fight all the same. 

Lewis Hamilton currently lies 47 points behind Alonso, and just 7 from Webber in 2^nd. It’s not gone swimmingly for Lewis by any means, but if I was going to pick one driver who will certainly give Ferrari a run for their money it would be him.

Hamilton had huge issues last year, but he got his head together and set upon a plan of attack and by and large has stuck to it. The aim of the game has been consistency, and despite being only fourth in the standings he has been second only to Alonso in the way he has driven.

Pit stop problems, tyre issues and Pastor Maldonado’s poorly timed move in Valencia have given an artificial result to just how well Lewis has been doing.

McLaren’s updates in Germany have pushed them back into the frame with one of the quickest cars, while the win in Hungary should have given them impetus to continue down the same route with their development of the car and they’ve always been good at that.

Button still thinks he has a chance at the title too, but let’s face it, he doesn’t. With over half the season gone it’s time for McLaren to give Lewis the helping hand he might just need. It’s all well and good letting them fight if the drivers are equally paced and have similar points totals like Red Bull, but by this stage of the season McLaren emphatically do not have that.

Button’s form suffered after the first few races but he’s had a resurgence recently and could be put to good use. McLaren should use him for the good of the team. Lewis is their chance, they should take it.

Kimi Raikkonen is the dark horse of the title race. He sits just one point back from Hamilton with perhaps the most consistently front running car of the season despite the lack of a win. I think that’s all about to change though in the next couple of races.

That’s not to say it’ll be Kimi doing the winning, but if they want a title shot it should be. Romain Grosjean has been mighty in qualifying, leading the Finn 8-3, but he’s lacked a little consistency in the races but when he’s been on it he’s looked as good a bet as Kimi to take their first victory.

However, the points margin between them is just one different to that of Lewis and Jenson, so you’ve got to again ask whether or not it would be in their interests to start supporting Kimi.

More importantly though, their car has maintained a front running pace pretty much throughout the season so far. Their most recent development which they’ve been testing at the last few races helps to stall the rear wing like a Mercedes double DRS to increase straight line speed. However this works without the DRS needing to be open, like a passive f-duct with no driver contribution so legal, the next two fast tracks could prove to be decisive for their title tilt.

If all works as expected they could be on a charge to the top and I’ve no doubt Kimi will step up further given half a chance to take the title, it’s not out of the realms of possibility.

With teams such as Mercedes, Sauber, Williams and Force India all still eager to make cameo’s near the front this is going to be an intense road to the finale with plenty of ups and downs for all but who will be the winner you ask? I think it’s between Kimi and Lewis as to just who will end up second behind Alonso.

all photo's from autosport.com

Hamilton holds off Kimi for Hungarian glory

Lewis Hamilton took a brilliantly controlled victory in Hungary today. In many ways it was reminiscent of how Fernando Alonso won in Germany a week ago.

He always had that slight edge as potentially quicker cars behind him tried to have a go at grabbing the win from him. It was in the final sector where Hamilton was just able to keep enough of a gap so no one could touch him in the DRS zone down the start finish straight.

Leading from pole position he immediately got a gap out to Romain Grosjean’s Lotus, but it was never more than a few seconds. It was a hot day in Budapest, conditions that were ideal for the Lotus cars. Grosjean pegged that gap then started to close, getting to within a second.

But Lewis never had to defend from the Frenchman, and as they completed the second pit stops on lap 40 he was three seconds to the good. The challenge was over, well at least from that Lotus.

Ahead of him Kimi Raikkonen was finally into clear air and charging. The Finn, never happy this season without a win shot straight in to the 1.25s as he sought to build a gap.

He had started in fifth and lost a place to Alonso, but through the first pit stops he managed to jump the Ferrari and tagged onto the back of Sebastian Vettel’s Red Bull. He was obviously quicker, but despite the Pirelli tyres and the DRS zone this race would not be an overtaking fest.

Unless it rains in Hungary there’s unlikely to be much chance of overtaking. As soon as Vettel pitted Kimi was unleashed and started taking seconds out of everyone else as they battled through traffic.

He got the gap up to 14 seconds, but after 5 laps Lewis had got his tyres working as Kimi’s degraded and the gap began to fall. He boxed instantly and had done just enough to get ahead of his team mate Grosjean.

Exiting alongside, he locked up his right front pushed Grosjean wide into turn one and was through. It was crucial. Three seconds behind Lewis, he pushed as hard as could. With five laps worth of fresher tyres he caught the McLaren easily, but as he admitted over the radio he needed Hamilton’s tyres to fail.

They didn’t, Lewis looked after them superbly as when he needed to, he pulled out a quick lap just to show the Lotus that he still had some pace there.

Hamilton crossed the line less than a second ahead of the Lotus, but the pace that McLaren’s updates have brought was finally demonstrated with his second victory of the year.

He’s still a long way off championship leader Alonso, but took a significant 15 point chunk out of the Spaniard’s lead. Hamilton isn’t out of the title equation yet, and as they head into the summer break he’ll be optimistic having taken pole position and victory in a very assured manner.

The top three in the championship

The top three in the title chase had quiet afternoons. I think Alonso will be quite happy with his afternoons work after finishing fifth and actually extending his lead in the championship over second placed Mark Webber to 40 points.

He’d already said his main focus was to keep Webber behind him, but after they’d made their second stops Webber had turned out in front. Red Bull however, didn’t believe they’d make it to the end on those tyres and pitted Mark with 13 laps left dropping him to eighth and while he was quick at first he became stuck behind Bruno Senna’s Williams and just couldn’t get by.

Sebastian Vettel was urging his team to find a way past Jenson Button, in the end McLaren did it for him by converting him to a three stop strategy which dropped him from challenging for a podium to 6^th by the end, tucked up behind Alonso. Anyway, it was doubtful he’d have stayed ahead of Kimi.

Vettel too went with a three stopper but by the time he made his final stop he was able to come out ahead of Alonso still, and cruised up to the back of Grosjean for third but didn’t have time to make a move, despite lapping 2 seconds quicker than those in front.

The rest of the top 10

Senna came home in seventh in a fine drive. He was always on the pace during the race, in fact for the entire weekend. It was a good performance, and one he needed as we enter the break as he’s been under pressure. Despite being out qualified by his team mate Pastor Maldonado again, he had actually over shadowed him for most of the weekend, and as Maldonado fell down the field due to another penalty Senna maintained position and actually went forwards.

It should be noted that Senna has actually had more points winning results than his team mate, it’s just that Maldonado had that great win in Spain. Senna needs to up his qualifying form and get himself a shining result to keep his seat because he’s in danger of falling off the radar despite his consistency.

Felipe Massa had a bad start, falling from seventh to ninth by the end. He didn’t do much wrong and was actually fairly close to Alonso by the end of the race, but the start cost him and he couldn’t make any passes to progress, much like everyone else.

Nico Rosberg moved up from 13^th on the grid to grab the final point on another disappointing day for Mercedes. After qualifying only 13^th and 17^th their race day turned worse for Schumacher. As they lined up for the start, the lights flashed to abort the start and he switched off his engine.

Everyone else went round for another parade lap as he got pushed into the pits. He then speeded in the pit lane as he took up his position, made an early stop for tyres, got a drive through, tried to go on a one stop but eventually retired after making progress passed the newer teams but little else. Mercedes have a lot of work to do If they want to get anything else from this season.

After the impressive showing in Germany, Sauber had an utterly anonymous day at the races. Neither drive made much progress from a poor qualifying, they just didn’t have the pace.

The title battle

And so now there is a five week break until the next race at Spa in Belgium. Fernando Alonso has built up almost a two win advantage over Mark Webber, but he’ll be slightly concerned, because in full dry conditions, the Ferrari still doesn’t seem to have the pace of at least three teams.

Alonso will work for every point and no doubt grab the odd win along the way, he’s also an expert in damage limitation, but despite his elevated position he knows there’s a marathon of a fight to come.

Red Bull head the constructors championship by a significant margin as their two drives are separated by just two points. Webber has been a bit lacklustre since his Silverstone win and Vettel gives the impression of becoming increasingly frustrated.

But despite this and the various allegations of stretching the rules that have been thrown at them, they are still probably the quickest car in all conditions. With Adrian Newey pushing the envelope at every given opportunity they won’t let Ferrari rest for a tenth of a second.

Two good results later and McLaren are not being written off anymore. At Silverstone they were down and out, now they’re right back in it. Hamilton is only seven points away from being second in the championship and this win will give a lot of encouragement for the rest of the season. He's been mostly brilliant this year and as McLaren develop well, if they can get Button up there consistently too, they’ll have a lot of words to say as the script is written for the title chase.

Despite not having a win to his name this year Kimi Raikkonen remains the dark horse in the championship. He’s only a point behind Hamilton, and actually has the joint second highest amount of podiums this year.

He could have had at least two wins this year, possibly three. If he can get his act together in qualifying, the wins will come easier. He’s certainly driving well, as is Grosjean, Lotus will win a race this year and it could come from either, but for the championship, they’d wanted it to be Kimi who’s a bit more consistent at bringing the car home, they just need him to qualify like Grosjean.

The win could come at Spa, last time Kimi visited there in 2009 he took his fourth win in Belgium. With nine races left it’s still all to play for, the top teams may have more certainty and control over the tyres but there's a lot more story to be told in this epic 2012 season.