This time next week, we’ll know which teams got it right and which ones got it not so right. But for now, we’re staring into the unknown. With just a week to the start of the season, testing has given us a picture of the relative strength of each team that’s really rather muddy.
With fuel loads and various tyre compounds it’s been difficult to get a proper read on the situation, but that’s not to say I won’t give it a go, there’s enough information to make a fair if not accurate prediction for the season ahead.
Red Bull
Didn’t go for times, and tested for ten out of twelve days with a different exhaust layout which was upgraded with two days to spare, probably to prevent others from copying it in time for Australia. With the blown diffuser now banned which was integral to the design of the previous car, Red Bull have the most to lose, so their design is being closely watch to see how they’ll grab the downforce back.
They ran relatively reliably and consistently, and rival teams have suggested they are still the team to beat. Mark Webber looked sharper than he has done for a while, I didn’t think the style of driving needed for the blown diffuser ever really suited him, I think he’ll be a bigger threat this year. Sebastian Vettel is still the man to beat.
McLaren
They’re certainly doing better than this time last year when reliability scuppered them. All is looking well with the Woking squad, certainly not far away from the Red Bull’s and you can definitely expect them to be fighting from the start, and it is certainly the prettiest car on the grid, the only one not to suffer from a stepped nose so it's already a winner. Over long runs, they were consistent and didn’t seem to suffer too badly from tyre degradation.
The strongest driver line-up on the grid; Jenson Button appears confident, but Lewis Hamilton seems happier. If he can maintain that frame of mind for the whole year I expect him to be Vettel’s closest challenger for the title.
Mercedes
Look to have taken a significant step forward this year, no real headline times, but consistent running, and very reliable too although tyre degradation may still be a problem for them. They’ve bolstered their design team over the past year, and they’ll be hoping to challenge for podiums from the start, with maybe a lucky win.
Nico Rosberg is likely to be the teams main qualifier, but Michael Schumacher has looked better and better and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get the best result. I think they’re quietly confident.
Lotus
The headline team in winter testing for good and bad reasons; topped the times in Jerez, construction failure and withdrawal from the second test, then back to top the times in the third test. When the cars been running, its looked good. Certainly they seem to have done more low fuel running than the big guns, but they’re long runs haven’t looked bad at all which bodes well for racing.
Kimi Raikkonen has returned to Formula 1, and he looks sharp, I don’t think he’ll have trouble readapting at all. Romain Grosjean, looks quick after his abortive attempt a few years ago. I think he’ll push Kimi during the year, but especially at the start of the season, these guys could be the surprise.
Ferrari
The Italians led by their new British Technical director Pat Fry went for an adventurous concept in an attempt to challenge Red Bull. Unfortunately they seem to have got a bit lost, looking quick at times, but also woeful at others, and they admit they don’t really know why. There’s a lot of potential in the car but whether they can untap it is certainly not a given. I think good in qualifying and then dropping back through the race to begin with.
How long Fernando Alonso will put up with this, remains to be seen, because if he’s not winning, it won’t be his fault. Felipe Massa looked stronger in testing, I think he’ll be better than last year; he needs to be to keep his seat.
Force India
They’ve had a decent winter testing season and look to have made a step forward. But then again, so have most other teams. I think they’ll challenge about as consistently as they did last year, but I don’t see them cracking the top four, they may have a chance to scalp Ferrari in the early races.
Paul di Resta and Nico Hulkenberg are an exciting driving line-up, each more than capable of producing strong results. We’ll see how friendly they remain as the season goes on.
Toro Rosso
Another team to come out of winter testing looking fairly impressive, Red Bull’s junior squad look very eager to move to the head of the midfield. They’ve run reliably and looked quick throughout, but I think they’ll need to capitalise on this in the first few races. Daniel Ricciardo and Jean-Eric Vergne are two young chargers with their sights on a Red Bull drive, there could be fireworks.
Sauber
Same as Toro Rosso really, looked quick at times, how that’s transferred to a competitive situation remains to be seen, but I imagine it’ll be fairly similar to last year. That’s the kind of team they are. Kamui Kobayashi is always impressive but whether he’s top line he’ll have to prove this year as Ferrari affiliated Sergio Perez seems to be getting stronger.
Williams
The once giant of Formula 1 is on its knees. Winter testing hasn’t gone badly, but it’s not been great either, punctuated with either fast times, or plain slow and reliability hasn’t been brilliant. Bruno Senna finally gets a proper chance to establish himself as Formula 1 regular, Pastor Maldonado needs to build on his occasional flashes of speed if he doesn't just want to rely on his cash to get a drive, although it helps.
Caterham
Started off fairly disappointingly, it looked like another year of trailing behind the midfield, but I think they may just have latched onto the back and might even sneak a first point this year. Heikki Kovalainen has been fantastic over the last few years, will want a return on his investment. Vitaly Petrov is lucky Russia has got a race soon as he secured this drive late.
HRT
Not much to say, they’ve only done a day’s filming with the car, but at least it’s built and it’s turned a wheel before the first race which is better than last year. They have the oldest driver line-up on the grid in Pedro de la Rosa and Narain Karthekeyan , both with little potential to improve, another year at the back.
Marussia
The team formally known as Virgin aren’t much better than HRT. Only one testing day after failing crash tests, will hopefully manage to qualify for the race. Timo Glock soldiers on, Charles Pic shouldn’t be any trouble for him.
It’s going to be a much closer season than last year, that much should be fairly certain. At the moment it looks like a two horse race for the title between Red Bull and McLaren, with Mercedes and Lotus snapping at the heels with Ferrari still a very unknown quantity. The midfield will be tight so any drop in development will see an instant fall. This should be extremely competitive and I wouldn’t like to predict who’ll come out on top, but I will and it’s Vettel. It’ll be a hell of a battle though.
All photo's taken from autosport.com
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