In the words of Jenson Button after he won in 2009 ‘Monaco
baby, yeah’! It’s the race all the drivers want to win; the claustrophobia of
the barriers needs levels of concentration that make it a true test for drivers
as they wind their way past the many famous landmarks that scatter the circuit,
the often used cliché of it being the jewel in the crown of Formula 1 is
certainly a very apt one.
This year it’s a race that almost all the drivers can
actually genuinely go there and believe they have a hope of winning as the form
book has been ripped up, spat out and stepped on before being tossed in the Mediterranean.
The gripping tyre debate
There has been no real form set in 2012, it makes predicting
anything rather a hard task. The Pirelli tyres, for better or worse, have made
Formula 1 a lottery. I think in terms of entertainment in the races they’ve
been a great success.
However, even with Sebastian Vettel winning all the time last year,
many of the races were fantastic spectacles, but you at least had a consistent
run of form for people to latch on to. This year it hasn’t been like that at
all with almost any team coming to the forefront, and the thing is they don’t
even know why, which gives it all a slight artificialness.
Certainly as I wrote in my Spanish race report many drivers
are baffled and frustrated with why they can’t make the tyres work for them on
particular occasions. I’m not sure it’s particularly a good thing.
For all the technical wonders that Formula 1 teams possess
they have been left flummoxed by the tyres to such an extent that they don’t
even know how their car will perform one day to the next. For instance Lotus
was extremely fast in race set up mode on the Friday of Spain. Two days later
and a 10C drop in temperature and they couldn’t compete with Ferrari and
Williams until the end.
As Mark Hughes wrote here for the Skysports website, it’s
about maintaining a consistent approach with the tyres on a given occasion
which many a driver can do, but how many can really sustain full on attack for
lap after lap? Well none at the moment as that skill is no longer required,
something you feel many drivers miss.
Is Formula 1 now just an entertainment lottery show or is it
still a sport of technical skill and driving to the edge? My bet is you’ll see
a slight adjustment of how Pirelli go about constructing their tyres for 2013
to give a little bit more consistency so that teams can go on the attack again
and satisfy the drivers a bit more.
Who will win on the streets?
So as the teams set up in Monaco for tomorrow’s practice
they’ll be desperately searching for that all elusive sweet spot while coping
with differing temperatures and a street track surface which no one will really
know where they stand, probably until Sunday evening.
Well having said that let’s try and work out who Pirelli
would like to win this weekend? I’ll start off with a bold prediction that
perhaps, just maybe we could pick up our sixth different winning driver and
team and you’ve got to believe it’ll be Kimi Raikkonen and Lotus.
When you search for a consistent theme from 2012 perhaps the
most obvious one is that Lotus have been there abouts all year long. If they
were a graph they’d have more of a straight line than anyone else.
If anything they’ve been moving up, they could conceivably
have won the last two races, Kimi certainly thinks there’s been missed
opportunities. If the tyres hadn’t have died so comprehensively in China while
in second he’d have been leading the championship, it has to be his turn to
shine soon.
I’m not forgetting Romain Grosjean though, he’s been very
impressive with his second bite at Formula 1 especially in qualifying. His race
performances have left him getting a bit battle scarred, but Bahrain and Spain have
marked a turnaround but at present Kimi just has the edge on Sundays.
Apart from Lotus making it six from six, as we enter our
second quarter of the season it becomes more likely that someone will double up
their race wins. There’s many who could but it’s not outlandish to suggest
Pastor Maldonado could get back to back victories.
Providing Williams have recovered their equipment after
their garage fire I think they’re a reasonable choice. Maldonado was unlucky
not to finish sixth last year in a terrible car after he got bumped by Lewis
Hamilton. So with a winning car and that extra bounce from victory… Bruno Senna
won in GP2 so let’s not rule him out either.
Ferrari’s updates appeared to at least work for Fernando
Alonso in Spain, he is joint leader of the championship and really he has no
right to be. But he’s been fantastic and the team have worked hard to improve
the car, but to be in a position where he is, is entirely down to him. With an
improving car I think it’s looking ominous for the rest, he’s always there
waiting in the wings, but how long before he’s flying far above?
Realistically, although you never know, McLaren, Red Bull
and Mercedes will be the other challengers for victory. McLaren still probably
have the quickest car, tyres corrected, especially in Lewis Hamilton’s hands.
Hamilton has been held back by team mistakes, he’s another
one who has cause to think he should be leading the title hunt, but he’s kept
his head and he should be well up there in qualifying. But it’s Sunday where
there’s the question mark. McLaren have faded in the last few races, if they’ve
understood why then I’d expect Lewis to be heading Jenson Button who is
increasingly confused by the way the tyres work for him.
Never discount Red Bull, Vettel and Mark Webber will be
around, but after a resounding victory in Bahrain they were nowhere in Spain. Vettel
looked disappointed, but if anything it’ll make him more determined than ever
and he’s still leading the championship. He took a great Monaco victory last
year while conserving the tyres and holding off Alonso and Button so he’s got
recent form, if that counts for anything.
Mercedes too have dropped back after their win in China and
with Michael Schumacher restrained by a grid penalty they’ll be looking to Nico
Rosberg to lead the charge, but I think they’ve dropped down the pecking order
for now at least.
But these are just predictions, nobody really knows what the
Pirelli gods have in store for us in the principality and whatever you may think
about how the racing is going this year, it’ll still be a lot of fun finding
out.
photo taken from autosport.com
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