If you watched the end of the last pre-season test you can’t
have failed to get excited. Practically all the cars were out on track, some
doing late race simulations, some doing a qualifying run, some piling into the
pits for pit stop practice.
This was their last chance at getting track time before the
teams ship out to Australia for the first race of the 2013 season. Yes in a
week and half, 16 weeks since Sebastian Vettel secured his third straight title
the lights will have gone out and they’ll be racing on the edge for the 64th
Formula 1 world championship.
So which teams seem to have used their winter down time the
best? Most teams appear to have gone for an evolution of their 2012 car, what
with the dramatic rule changes that 2014 will bring, this seems to be the most
sensible option rather than opting for a whole new design concept.
Testing is never going to give you a clear picture of who is
doing what. Most teams will run variable fuel loads. Even when fitting the
softest tyre compound for a short run, you don’t actually know just how much
they’ve filled up the car, no one wants to reveal their hand too early; secrecy
is everything in testing.
Tyres are going to be a big talking point again, Pirelli
have brought a new construction of their compounds and in the colder
temperatures of winter testing degradation has been high. In warmer conditions
they should last a bit longer, but still expect a few extra pit stops. Anyway
after keeping a beady eye on proceedings and scouring the F1 press, I think
there are a few assumptions that can be made.
Red Bull lead the way
First of all, it’s looks like it’s going to be close, very
close. Last year’s champions Red Bull look like they might have the edge and
they’ll certainly start this year more competitive than last, despite Vettel’s
assertion that they still have a lot of work to do and cannot be sure just how
good the car is as the tyres are making definite conclusions difficult.
When running though, the car just looks bolted to the road
like no other. Technical director Adrian Newey will always be the first to the
find the last ounce of down force and I don’t think you can look past Red Bull
as the team to beat at the moment. There were suggestions that after the effort
spent on grabbing the title in 2012, they may have taken their eye off the ball
this year. I don’t think so, they’ll be there, they already had a good package
and I think they’ll fly. Expect Vettel and Mark Webber to be near the top of
the time sheets in Melbourne.
Ferrari start stronger
Ferrari is way ahead compared to where they were this time
last year. They were shocking at the start of last year but things look to be
coming together for them better this year. It still doesn’t seem like they’ve
solved all their problems. In their test coverage Sky pointed out that the
Ferrari seemed to be suffering a few tractions problems which won’t help them
with looking after their tyres.
But as last year proved Fernando Alonso just needs a car
near the pace to get involved in the title battle and they’ve made a much
better start for 2013. Alonso himself feels confident and has said he’ll be
better than last year. That’s enough to send shivers down the spines of his
rivals. Felipe Massa looks confident too, he’ll be hoping to put Alonso under a
bit of pressure, and when it’s from a team mate the Spaniard doesn’t always
take it too well.
The closest
challengers
However, the closest teams to Red Bull at the moment appear
to be Lotus and Mercedes. Again analysis from Sky seemed to suggest that they
might be slightly off Red Bull’s qualifying pace, but in race pace simulations
they’re more than a match.
That bodes well for both teams. Kimi Raikkonen was arguably
the most consistent of all drivers last year despite two years off, so with one
year of experience back I expect him to be even quicker and lead the team to a
few more victories.
Championship challenger? It remains to be seen, but I wouldn’t
not back him to be in the hunt. Romain Grosjean has one lifeline left, too many
crashes at the start of the season and it’ll be game over, but he’s quick
enough to win, and so is the car. At the moment the black and gold cars look to
be the main challengers to Red Bull victory.
Lewis Hamilton has to be pleased with the work done so far
on his Mercedes.
Certainly the car looks quick over one lap, and fairly
consistent over a race run. There still seem to be issues with tyre degradation
though, which after last year is something you’d have thought they’d have
corrected.
Still Lewis said he’d be happy with points but I’d be
surprised if both he and Nico Rosberg aren’t fighting for wins on occasion and
perhaps more consistently than that.
McLaren looking
inconsistent
McLaren are the only team to have started with a new design
concept. Strange really as they pretty much had the fastest car last year, and
definitely ended the season quicker than anyone else. You would have thought
continue along that theme, but apparently not.
It was quick out of the box, but Jenson Button has pointed
out it is quick one lap, not so quick the next. They seem to be having trouble
working out just how to get the best out of their new car. It is also taking
them a while to alter set up due to having changed their suspension layout from
a push-rod to a pull-rod, copying Ferrari along this line of thinking. But it
does result in extra time needing to be taken to make changes.
McLaren will be near the top, they always are but I have a
feeling it’ll be a bit hit and miss. They also need their drivers Button and
newcomer Sergio Perez to lift their game in qualifying, both often
underperformed in 2012. However, Australia is an odd track and often doesn’t
lay out the definitive pecking order so don’t be surprised to see Button win as
he has done for 3 out of the last 4 years.
Tight in the midfield
The midfield pack looks close again. With only minor changes
to the regulations we could be in line for a few more surprise results from the
lower order teams as they have far more to gain than the bigger teams who will
already have pushed these rules to the limit.
I believe Williams head the pack here, Pastor Maldonado and
Valtteri Bottas are exciting by the gains made by the Oxfordshire squad. Really
they should have been probably sixth in the constructors last year instead of
eighth given their pace most of the year, but some drivers will crash a lot!
I think if they’ve gone the right way, they could again
pluck out a victory. Force India I think lead Sauber, who look a bit unsure of
themselves. With Adrian Sutil back for Force India together again with Paul di
Resta, I see this team developing far quicker than Sauber who have a rookie in
Esteban Gutierrez and Nico Hulkenberg who is a star, but can he alone moved the
team forward.
Don’t really see why he left Force India to be honest, if
anything he might have dropped down the pecking order. Toro Rosso look like
they’ll be more of a challenger this year, they’ve set some impressive times
and look consistent.
At the back
No change at the back really apart from the loss of HRT and
Marussia looking much quicker than Caterham who say their main new package will
come for the 5th round in Spain. So a little change then.
Marussia will also be running KERs for the first time this
season, sourced from Williams. It’s already making a difference. Both teams
though are running pretty much all rookie drivers with the exception of Charles
Pic who has one years worth of experience. I know times are tough but the loss
of Timo Glock for Marussia and Heikki Kovalainen for Caterham is surely going
to be a big blow if they want to develop further, but when you need money I
guess. Points? No, I don’t think so.
Rash title
predictions
So there it is; the main point to make is that it will be
close. Early title predictions would be stupid so here are mine. A Vettel and
Alonso battle to the end would be great as their rivalry intensifies. I think
we can safely say these two will be involved in some way. So that’s not rash
that’s just predictable.
A more reckless forecast I think is Kimi. He hasn’t had the
best of testing seasons, but he’s a no nonsense kind of guy and this won’t affect
him. I think he is a realistic contender, no not even that, he will be a
championship challenger. Lewis Hamilton is the quickest out there and despite
the softly softly approach and how poor Mercedes got last year, they look to
have made giant strides in performance; Hamilton as an outside optimistic bet.
No one from McLaren? Jenson Button hates an uncertain car,
he needs confidence so if they are unsure of how to access its potential, that’s
not a good sign. However, if they do and they had the foresight to build it
more for Button, then he can be great.
Testing is over, next stop Melbourne, Australia where the
lights go out and Formula 1 2013 is go and the answers revealed, it’s going to
be awesome.
all photo's taken from autosport.com
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