The Monaco Forecast

Here is a new column which will be put out every Wednesday before a race weekend. It will offer brief predictions for the event ahead in a sort of serious fashion. So here we go.

First of all, it will be bright and Sunny on race day according to the latest weather reports. Only 18C so quite settled conditions and nothing too hot for the tyres, which is always nice to know. Saturday looks cloudy, maybe a chance of rain which could make qualifying interesting.

Of course tyres are a tiring debating point, and no doubt we’ve done them to death. I believe my last three blog entries have been about them. Certainly we will have some chat about them especially as Pirelli’s proposal to go back to the 2012 tyres has been blocked by the FIA. But, I expect the Monaco weekend to not be such a major tyre talking point for the actual race. Monaco isn’t high on degradation, so hopefully we can put the tyres to one side for once this season and just go racing, Pirelli are predicting a 2 stop strategy which is enough on the streets.

Of course if tyre degradation is low, this could work for Mercedes, the team who love a good pole position but love it even more when they drop hopelessly down the field. Well they don’t like that bit but if often happens. If they can maintain their good one lap pace then, Mercedes stand their best chance so far of winning a race in 2013. Michael Schumacher set fastest Q3 time and it was one of Nico Rosberg’s best races last year, finishing a strong second place so there is a precedent set. Rosberg or Lewis Hamilton though? Too close to call, although I will call it and go with Lewis.

Rosberg finished behind Mark Webber last year, and it’s time for Webber to out-qualify his Red Bull adversary Sebastian Vettel and beat him. A winner here for two of the last three years, I see no reason why Webber can’t win again, and he needs to, he’s only 6^th in the a title race his team mate is leading and if he qualifies well he can even protect his predictable poor start fairly easily. Tyres shouldn’t be an issue, so it’s time for Mark to kick start his season.

Monaco is a place where a driver can more easily make a difference. You often hear how it’s in the slow stuff where drivers can make up the most time, and there’s plenty of slow stuff on these streets. I think McLaren will finally have a stronger weekend, both cars at least into Q3, and from there anything can happen. Watch out for Jenson Button in particular. They’ll also have to answer a lot of questions regarding their new partnership with Honda from 2015 and how that affects their current lover Mercedes. Designer Paddy Lowe has now been allowed to join Mercedes earlier than planned since the Honda link up was announced.

Williams also need to grab some points, being one of only three teams not to have scored this year. Pastor Maldonado is good around the Principality so he’s another one that could spring a surprise result.

Talking of surprises, this one wouldn’t be as Force India have produced a strong car so far this season and are one of the main beneficiaries from the tyre situation right now. If they can qualify well perhaps a podium for Paul di Resta or Adrian Sutil? I’m not just plucking this out of the air, they’ve had two 7^th placed finishes the last two years and are in much stronger shape this year, it’s certainly not inconceivable.

We all know Monaco is very confined, over taking is hard, there’s often queues on the opening lap especially down to the famous Fairmont/ Loews/ Station/ whatever hairpin. You’ll know it. We haven’t had a safety car yet this year, surely one is due and where more obvious than here. There have been 14 safety car periods in the last 10 years, so I think I’m fairly safe with this one.

So now we come to the championship trio of Vettel, Fernando Alonso and Kimi Raikkonen. Of these three who will have the best chance of adding to their Monaco tally’s? I’ve got to go with Fernando to be the most likely winner, he always goes well here, and despite the Red Bull domination of the past three years, I think he’s about to emerge as the possible dominant force over the next few races. 

I’m probably wrong, but I definitely expect Alonso to be winning a lot more than last year. Ferrari haven’t won here since 2001, they could have won in 2008 when Felipe Massa was leading (Massa would be a good outside tip for pole, he’s done it before and is good around Monaco) and 2010 when Alonso looked a level above everyone before he crashed in practice. I think this is the year for them.

Vettel will always be up there, but as I said I think Webber may be the lead Red Bull this weekend. Kimi will be somewhere on the podium and don’t rule him out for the win either. Lotus believe they may be able to unlock some more one lap pace to go with their brilliant race pace. However, wherever he ends up Kimi will be disappointed, such is life.

LAT, Sutton and XPB photo's taken from autosport.com, all others from planetf1.com