The British Forecast

Silverstone approaches this weekend and as ever the British racing media will hype it up as one of the great races of the year. Unfortunately as much as the results can be quite interesting a lot of the time the actual racing isn’t overly wonderful, unless the weather fancies spicing up the action.

Last year produced a good close competition but I think it needed it a bit of the inclement weather that had soaked the circuit for the two days before resulting in most unpleasant conditions for the spectators.

This year the forecast is for more rain, but light showers on the opening two days so qualifying might be effected. Race day is due to be cloudy with sunny spells, so it’s looking good for a dry race.

Anyway my first prediction for this year is that we’re going to get some decent racing. We’ve got two DRS zones now separated by about half a lap, the first on the Wellington Straight and the second on Hanger Straight. It’s about time there was a second DRS zone, this track hasn’t been known for easy overtakes so if ever there needed to be a second zone it was here.

Of course how can we preview a race meeting without mentioning the Pirelli tyres? After all the criticism they’ve faced they’ve decided to go conservative and are bringing the medium and hard compounds to Silverstone. This should result in something like a 2-3 stop race.

This displeases Lotus who are complaining that Pirelli are now not being adventurous enough, but these tyre choices and this track should suit Red Bull’s down force generating aero. In fact I already think it’s Sebastian Vettel’s race to lose and another step towards his fourth world title.

Only Mark Webber can stop him I think. He is brilliant around the Northamptonshire track, winning in two of the last three years, I expect Webber to be a major contender for the win and could out qualify Vettel for the first time this year. Well maybe … I'm afraid even Webber at Silverstone might not be enough to stop Vettel in his current form.

Now I know I said this track should suit Red Bull, but Mercedes will be a threat, especially on the Saturday, maybe just on the Saturday actually as there are a lot of fast corners at Silverstone meaning a lot of energy goes through the tyres. Mercedes themselves don’t think they have got their tyre issues fully under control, just the last few tracks haven’t had high degradation. I still think Hamilton will be on pole position, and even though he might fade out of winning contention a podium might be on if Pirelli’s conservative tyre choice helps them out. Rosberg will also be up there, but I don't think he can beat Lewis at home.

Of course Mercedes are lucky to be racing at all after their rather dubious punishment from the international Tribunal regarding their testing incident. They’ve been banned from the young driver test but as much as they did it in good faith, I think they’ve got away with something here. They wouldn’t make their drivers wear plain helmets if they weren’t trying to get away with something.

Anyway that’s been talked about to death and will only be talked about more as Red Bull now threaten to test seen as they’ll only receive a reprimand. I think it’s all talk though.

Now back to a few quick fire predictions. Ferrari could have won the last two British Grand Prix with Alonso, he’ll be strong again this year. If Alonso can qualify well it could be an epic dual with the Red Bull’s for victory.

If Lotus don’t have a good weekend, they’re out of the title battle. That’s a longer term prediction but after looking strong, two horrible weekends where Kimi Raikkonen has only scored 3 points means he’s dropped well off the pace. Needs to be strong here, although they weren’t wonderful in 2012, this years car is a lot stronger but Pirelli’s choice of compounds means they will have less of an advantage when it comes to the race.

Force India could get a podium with Paul di Resta. They’ve been getting stronger all year and I feel sure they’ll get one at some point this year. Also I’ve predicted it the last two races I can’t give up now. However, they are in a similar predicament to Lotus as regards the tyres so perhaps their chance has gone.

McLaren have done some straight line testing and are hopeful the updates they bring will give them a step forward. I don’t think McLaren will be in the leading back but they could be on for a strong points finish. A British podium will again be elusive for Jenson Button.

Toro Rosso will get another car into Q3 while if it rains on Saturday lets look to Valtteri Bottas to lead the Williams charge. The midfield battle is extremely tight at the moment but the title race is in need of spicing up, Vettel is being brilliant, I can only see this race being an extension of Canada if all goes according to plan, only an Alonso genius moment or the spice of rain can stop this being a Red Bull day.

all photo's taken from autosport.com