The Italian Forecast

The last European race of the year has already arrived, and it’s always a fantastic time to return to the home of Ferrari and the fastest track in Formula 1. It's also the shortest race of the year with the race often taking 80 minutes or less over it's 53 laps.

As the season got underway again two weeks ago in Belgium there was hope that the championship battle was about to be reignited as the combined forces of Mercedes, Ferrari and Lotus battled to push Red Bull down the order.

That hope was quickly put down by the sheer ease with which Sebastian Vettel won at Spa-Francorchamps, one of the two tracks Red Bull had spoken about as an Achilles’ heel. The other was Monza, so on that evidence are we to fear that Vettel is about to crush any remaining optimism?

There is hope of an interesting race this weekend that could upset the odds. There are two DRS zones again, with the Red Bull notorious for not quite having the top speeds, they’ll be even more vulnerable to attack. The tyre compounds being brought to the track are the medium and hard which should present minimal problems in terms of overt degradation, but that may well be irrelevant. The weather is for a sunny Friday, a cloudy Saturday and then a storm looks to be brewing for the main event. Could we have our first wet race of the year?

It would be nice to get the wet weather skills out, it always creates an exciting spectacle with so many drivers with great feel in the rain it would be the most open race of the year, and perhaps the most likely chance of a McLaren victory; both Jenson Button and Sergio Perez have shown their prowess in slippery conditions and what a result that would be on the teams 50^th anniversary.

That’s one possibility for defeating the Red Bulls. The other is that Monza is very different to Spa. Italy may be a low down force track like Belgium but Monza it is all about the long straights and mostly slow corners whereas Belgium is full of fast corners which bring out the best in the Red Bulls aerodynamics.

Ferrari looked stronger in a low down force set up and without the fast corners, any advantage the Red Bulls have shouldn’t show up as much. Mercedes too will be looking to put there pace in a straight line to good use. In fact I wouldn’t be surprised to see two silver and two red cars make up the first two rows this weekend.

I don’t think Red Bull won’t be competitive but I do see their rivals’ managing to string out the belief this title is still up for grabs for just a few races longer. Vettel will no doubt be a podium contender by the end of the day though, it’s just how this seasons going. Having said rain could mix it up, let’s not forget Vettel’s first victory came at Monza in the pouring rain when he just drove away from the opposition in his Toro Rosso. If Red Bull do struggle for speed in the dry then rain could be just what they need.

So let’s make a few other quick predictions for the weekend ahead:

Lewis Hamilton to take pole position; that’s an easy one I think, five in a row isn’t unlikely at the moment, but Nico Rosberg is surely due to remind everyone that he can be just as fast too.

Fernando Alonso, come what may, will be fighting for victory this weekend. I expect him to qualify higher up and he makes things happen and will be determined to drag it out just a bit longer. However, once the season moves back to medium and higher down force tracks we’ll see if there improvement is sustained for real.

Kimi Raikkonen’s potential title tilt will come to an end this weekend. It already looks highly unlikely after his Belgian retirement but I don’t see Lotus managing to grind out a victory at a track where Mercedes and Ferrari should come to the fore. They are bringing a longer wheelbase car which they hope will help, but it’s doubtful that’ll be enough. They will be encouraged though that their lead driver looks set to stay.

Daniel Ricciardo will put the performance of his year in. He’s finally been confirmed as the next Australian to partner Vettel at Red Bull for 2014. The pressure is off for now, he can still fly a little under the radar for the rest of the season; it’s time now to show everyone just why they hired him. Hopefully he won’t do what Perez did last year when he was confirmed at McLaren and not score for the rest of the year.

Force India to sadly fall further back. Spa was meant to be their track, but after a great opportunistic qualifying they fell back in the race and didn’t look competitive. If the Toro Rosso’s hadn’t qualified out of position they wouldn’t have scored any points.

Look out for Esteban Gutierrez as well. The final result in Belgium didn’t show it, but he showed a great turn of speed and looks to be improving.

Final prediction is I believe this could be the most open race of the year. Red Bull is always competitive, Mercedes and Ferrari should be up there, Lotus could always throw up a surprise and if it rains, then it could just be magic for someone else. We need a good race, just to keep us fooled that this championship isn’t sewn up already.

all photo's taken from autosport.com