Thursday 9 April 2015

The Chinese Grand Prix Forecast

Round 3 - China, Shanghai International Circuit

Laps - 56

Pirelli compounds - Medium and soft. With lower temperatures than Malaysia a fortnight ago, will Ferrari be able to use their gentle caress on the tyres to the same effect? Pirelli predict an easy two stopper.

DRS Zones - Two, on the start finish straight and between turns 13 and 14.

Weather - Looks to be a dry weekend with maximum temperatures of 22C, but it is meant to be cloudy rather than full on beaming sunshine.

TV - Live on Skysports F1 with highlights on the BBC (UK 7am lights out)

Pick a winner - Despite the recent Ferrari victory taken by Sebastian Vettel, it remains to be seen whether they can do it again, on this basis I'm going with a Lewis Hamilton victory to reassert his dominance.

Hot Topics:

Continuing on the who will take the win theme, can Ferrari do it again? I don't think we should expect Ferrari to suddenly be Mercedes challengers all the time. Last time out in Malaysia it was a equal fight and the silver cars were beaten fair and square but the high temperatures played into the hands of Ferrari which seemed to be able to manage their tyres better while Mercedes in their bid for ever more down force have engineered higher rear tyre degradation into their car.

However, like in Australia, China will have cooler temperatures so could we see a return to the Mercedes dominance? As with any good experiment we need more evidence and I think we'll have to wait a couple more races yet to see if Ferrari are really going to make a fight of this all year.

Lewis Hamilton meanwhile has said Ferrari's win has been blown out of proportion and that it wasn't a disaster for Mercedes to lose. This might be so, but it did highlight how not used to being challenged Mercedes had got as they made muddled radio communications and seemed to lose their way on strategy due to the pressure from Ferrari. It's going to be exciting to see what will happen if they come under attack again.

Red Bull owner Dietrich Mateschitz has claimed his team will quit if they don't become more competitive. Engine supplier Renault have also alluded to withdrawing if their competitive state doesn't change. Perhaps if they both stopped having a go at each other and worked harder instead of name calling over regulations they all agreed to, they might end up getting somewhere. It just smacks of the big bully in the playground finally getting their comeuppance and going to cry in the corner. At the moment Red Bull is less likely to give you wings and more likely to make you whine like a ...

Bernie Ecclestone is sharing more epically bad ideas, chief of which was a all women's Formula 1 championship. Of course the cars wouldn't be as quick, and the the grid would be made up of a bunch of nobodies who've achieved nothing note worthy. It's an insulting concept. One day there will be a woman who will turn the tide and be successful at the top Formula, and on that day she'll have truly achieved something brilliant. Winning in a women only Formula 1 is to achieve nothing, there just isn't the depth of talent at the moment. He also brought up bringing double points back again, so we know Bernie can't have been thinking right as that idea was rightly shelved after uproar at its addition last year.

Nico Rosberg's title bid. I think already it's being talked about a lot. Refer to the title chase section below for more, because it's not going well and it needs to change quickly.

Predicting the headlines:

Kimi Raikkonen to show his potential with a good weekend for Ferrari.

Ferrari to maintain their victory challenging pace or Mercedes to blow them away. I think it's pretty black and white on that.

Rosberg has lost his way.

Manor to get both cars to the end.
Ricciardo to bring some joy for Red Bull.

Lotus get in the points with Grosjean.

Lotus have an accident with Maldonado.

McLaren to show further improvements.

Force India to get left behind.

Toro Rosso rookies continue to impress.

Under the radar:

We'll leave the money issues that will potentially destroy our favourite sport well alone this week. It's fairly obvious what should happen, but will they learn, no no, don't be silly. On the plus side Toro Rosso boss Franz Tost recognised that teams should help Grand Prix promote their races.

McLaren-Honda are still very optimistic for a team who've competed in two Grand Prix this year and recorded one non start, two retirements and a last placed finish. It says a lot about the joy Jenson Button expressed on the team radio when he realised he was catching cars in Malaysia. The long straight in China will hurt their down on power engine but watch out for them. They're going to spring a surprise sooner rather than later.

The title chase: 

It's going to take a few races to really get a handle on what might happen during the season and who other than Mercedes will be the main players but after Malaysia I think it's safe to say we might have a challenge from Ferrari. This coming race will give us more data to see if Sebastian Vettel or Kimi Raikkonen can be year long challengers. They seem pretty confident they can at least get a few more wins, and wins equal points, enough of those and you got something going on.

For now we have to assume it's still going to be between Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg. Hamilton we know has started well, he's got two pole positions, a win and a second place. More importantly in the title chase, he's crushed Nico Rosberg.

Rosberg was meant to come into 2015 with all guns blazing, but he's been rather tepid. He's made mistakes, come up short on pace and really not looked like the driver who ran Hamilton so close last year. His whole demeanour is of a man who knows he's up against a brilliant talent that he just can't live with anymore.

He's even been saying things like it's good if Vettel can interfere with the title battle as it might help him. Why say something like that? It's like he's already saying he can't beat Hamilton on his own and he's going to need a piggy back. He's in real danger of falling into a support role. Never mind about Vettel helping him, if the Ferrari drivers do get involved in the action, it's more likely they'll rule him out of the title race completely. He needs a win this weekend, I don't think anything else will do. At the very least he must beat Lewis.

all photo's taken from autosport.com

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