News and Previews

Rule changes...again!

Having scoured the Formula 1 press for the past week here are some of the top stories making the news after Silverstone. The first major thing to look at is the diffuser row. After a lot of arguments and politicking it has been decided to revert the off-throttle blown diffusers back to the specification they were at Valencia. This basically means they can blow as much hot air through them as they like for the rest of the year, but they must run the same engine map for qualifying and the race, so no extra boost for qualifying.

This rule change doesn’t seem to have been thought through very well by the FIA. Changing this particular rule meant that the teams would potentially suffer unreliability because their cars had been designed around this diffuser concept. It all got overly complicated so they’ve decided to revert. This pleases Red Bull and McLaren in particular who seemed to suffer the most as a result. The major team that seemed to benefit was Ferrari, who gained their first win of the year. However, they don’t seem too bothered by the revision to the rules as they had already brought in a huge update package for the British Grand Prix and will still expect to challenge in Germany.

Team Orders and Contracts

Next is Mark Webber and his sudden case of losing his hearing while being told to hold station behind his team mate Sebastian Vettel. In the press conference he said he ignored the instructions and Red Bull team boss Christian Horner made sure they had a discussion after the race. Webber told the BBC he felt they came away from the chat ‘seeing each other’s perspectives`.

It seems like a fuss about nothing really. In all likelihood Vettel isn’t going to manage to be silly enough to throw away more than a 3 race win advantage over his nearest non Red Bull rival. Vettel has had the measure of the Australian all season and there’s no reason to expect that to change. So when Webber was on a charge, they should have just let them race as Red Bull are the team that claimed they wanted their drivers to feel free to race to the end. Although they were worried about contact while the team were in a good position, to me it looks like Webber may have to deal with this situation again at some point this season.

He’s not had a good year against Vettel, things haven’t worked out the way he would have wanted, but one thing he should expect is to be able to race him when he is capable, but that doesn’t seem to be the case. Maybe Red Bull have realised how harmonious it is to have one driver taking the charge for the championship while the other one backs him up with the odd good result. Anyway, team orders are allowed, but it seemed unnecessary in the grand scheme of things.

However despite this, Mark Webber is likely to be extending his contract until the end of 2012. Red Bull owner Dietrich Mateschitz has said that ‘Mark Webber will re-sign for us’. This appears to be the likely outcome, and after Horner announced that he didn’t see the need to sign Lewis Hamilton while they have Vettel there is no obvious replacement.

The fight for a Red Bull drive

This leaves us with who may replace Webber if he were to leave after 2012. I wrote about Daniel Ricciardo threatening to replace one of the Toro Rosso pair, but they have since been given to the end of the year to prove themselves and Ricciardo has replaced Narain Karthikeyan at Hispania in a deal with Red Bull to give him some experience.

Depending on how they perform over the next year and a half, one of these three could find themselves partnering Vettel at Red Bull and immediately in a race winning position. The prize is high for them, it’ll be interesting to see if any of them are capable of it. Red Bull expects a lot from Ricciardo, so it’s likely he’ll be given a chance at Toro Rosso next year. It then comes down to Jaime Alguersuari and Sebastian Buemi, they’ve both been closely matched this year with Buemi edging it in qualifying and Alguersuari one point ahead in the championship.

However, Alguersuari is finally showing signs of progression, in the last three races he has scored points, all from 18^th position on the grid. He appears to be getting better by the race and has showed flashes of real talent over the last year mixed with admittedly some rather mediocre performances, but I think it’ll be Alguersuari fighting Ricciardo for a potential drive at Red Bull in 2013.

Ferrari test young drivers but not Kobayashi!

In other young driver news, Sergio Perez has caught the eye this year in the Sauber. He has put in a few notable performances, particularly in Australia and Britain and has been rewarded with a test in a 2009 Ferrari later this year. He’ll be up against fellow Ferrari young driver Jules Bianchi, a current GP2 racer whom Ferrari have a lot of time for.

Felipe Massa must be beginning to look over his shoulder, he’s not had the best season despite spirited race performances, and he’s not been the same since his accident in 2009. Despite having a contract for next year, rumours won’t go away that he’s in danger of being replaced, having said that I’d be surprised if they were to lose him for next year.

As good as it is for Perez, I do find myself wishing a top team would give such an opportunity to his team mate Kamui Kobayashi. He’s too good to be sitting in the midfield for his entire Formula 1 career and he is certainly the best driver to come out of Japan. He is one of the best over takers out there and has impressive race pace, it would be a shame if he is resigned to the fate of most Japanese drivers of trundling round with the odd good result but never letting the talent flourish at a top team.

German Grand Prix preview

Looking ahead to the German Grand Prix this weekend I have a feeling it could be close. This years race is held at the Nürburgring in the Eifel mountains region. It has a very changeable weather system and looking at the 7 day forecast, rain is looking likely, hopefully it’ll stay that way as it’s always nice to have a good wet race.

There are many teams who seem to be looking optimistically at Germany as a chance of a good result. Renault is due to bring a new exhaust system which they will be evaluating during practice on Friday. At Silverstone they were overtaken for fourth in the constructors championship by Mercedes and will be determined to get that place back after being off the pace for the last few races despite a strong start.

However, Mercedes seem to be feeling particularly confident. They now feel they are able to understand the car much better than earlier in the season and having brought a number of improvements to Silverstone they’re optimistic for Germany. Michael Schumacher and Nico Rosberg are both looking forward to their home race with the former saying: "We saw some improvements over the Silverstone weekend with our new exhaust system, along with improvements to how we work with the tyres, so we go to the next race weekend with a good feeling added to our fighting spirit."

If the promise of rain materialises expect to see a strong showing by Mercedes, particularly by Schumacher. He’s not had the results his general speed this year has deserved (partly because he likes to knock his front wing off first) and could have a very good race indeed. Rosberg is always thereabout, and if it rains could grab a podium.

McLaren lost their way as a result of the off-throttle diffuser row. They seemed to suffer the most so will be mightily relieved that its back. Jenson Button and Lewis Hamilton are demanding their team to make more progress, but they also need to iron out their operational difficulties. They wasted a set of soft dry tyres in qualifying at Silverstone when they sent them out in the rain with them on, then they messed up Button’s pit stop. It’s these things that have been noticeable this year especially with some of the gambles they’ve made with Hamilton’s car in qualifying.

They’ve lost ground to Red Bull and fallen behind Ferrari, but a team like McLaren are more than capable of getting back to the front and although I don’t see them becoming a major title challenger this year, there are definitely a few more victories to be had by them.  

Both Vettel and Fernando Alonso have encouraged their teams to keep fighting. Alonso is not getting carried away by his victory at Silverstone but has told his team that much more needs to be done to take the fight to Red Bull even if the title would be optimistic.

However, Ferrari was genuinely a lot quicker at the end of the last race and deserved their win. The most interesting thing will be to see if Ferrari will be affected by the return of the off-throttle diffusers. As I’ve said, they’re update package at the last race gave them a significant step forward, and they’ve been up near the front for the last three races, so I see no real reason to see them fall away. In fact, I’d expect Ferrari to be consistent challengers for the rest of the year.

Vettel is aware he’s in a strong position as we get to the half way point of the year and only a fool would bet against him for the title, but having said that Ferrari properly beat them on pace and there are still ten races to go with 250 points available.

A good strong run for Ferrari or McLaren come to that, and Vettel could suddenly find himself in a fight, so little wonder he’s insisted on his Red Bull team not resting on their laurels. However with their off-throttle diffuser back, it would be a surprise not to see Vettel back at the front this weekend while Webber will want to make a point ... if he’s allowed.