Is F1 2012 as random as you think?

2012 is turning out to be one of the most mixed up seasons Formula 1 has ever had, or at least that’s how it appears to be. A cursory glance at the championship table tells a slightly different story.

To me at least a top four of Fernando Alonso, Sebastian Vettel, Mark Webber and Lewis Hamilton seems like the kind of drivers you’d expect to be heading up the standings after six races.

It’s good that other teams are having a chance to shine, Sauber with Sergio Perez was awesome to watch in Malaysia as he just failed to hunt down Fernando Alonso while Pastor Maldonado’s triumph for Williams was a real fillip. 

Lotus will certainly continue to challenge, in former guises they were championship winners. But it’s the current team of the moment Red Bull and the decades of championship winning of Ferrari and McLaren which are making their experience tell with Mercedes holding on.

As much as unexpected teams may fight for top results and this takes away points from the top teams, it’s their ability to maximise whatever result is available to them on a given race that sees them ahead in the points.

But having said that, a quick scan of the results so far this year shows that of the 18 podium positions that have been available from the first six races, only five have been taken from teams who didn’t finish in the top four of the 2011 constructors championship.

And three of those came from Lotus, who as Renault last year finished fifth in the constructors championship. No matter what the rules throw at them, the best teams even if they appear to struggle will always rise to the top. 

It’s just they’ve all had a go from the off and no ones managed to hold on to a race winning pace from event to event which is why we’re hearing how much of a lottery it is, but they're all still lurking near by.

The racing has been brilliant, but its interesting to note that despite the excitement the winner of five of the six races has either lead into the first corner or started from pole position.

It’s still a very open season, but as I touched upon in my Monaco race report, we have our championship contenders and there’s no real surprise with who they are. Although you do have to say with Ferrari looking so poor at the start of the season, the fact he leads the title race is all the more impressive, but it goes back to what I was saying, damage limitation and maximising whatever you can get out of a weekend if it’s not going right for you.

Something that McLaren must get back on top of. Lewis Hamilton has been very consistent but surprisingly hasn’t actually scored a victory and he's seen his teams race pace slip away since the start of the season. He’s begun to criticise the team a bit after their pit stop failings, something that still hasn’t been cured, so there’s little wonder there are suggestions he might be on the move at the end of the season.

Jenson Button has slipped away despite a win, he’s only scored two points from the last three races as he struggles with the lottery inspired Pirelli’s but obviously it’s way too early to rule him out, he's only just over a wins worth of points away from Alonso, but this year is that already too much?

Red Bull are the only team to have scored two wins so far this year but despite their relatively poor qualifying form, they have had great race pace which has brought them back into play. Vettel and Webber are a lot more evenly matched than last year with the absence of blown diffusers, which Webber could never quite get on top of as well as Vettel.

Question mark about Red Bull is how the intra-team rivalry will shake out as 2011 was calm as Vettel obliterated everyone, but with a more equal footing will we return to the tense infighting of 2010? It’ll be interesting to see how that goes down.

There could still be a surprise championship winner though.

The only ones to me that realistically could spring one are Kimi Raikkonen in the Lotus who has been tremendously consistent mostly, and probably should have had two wins already. Nico Rosberg has a win and is only four points back from Hamilton, and is generally a fairly consistent driver too given the equipment.

And that’s it this year, consistency is key, Alonso has scored points in every race so far including his win, while winless Lewis has done the same but is only thirteen points off, despite Mark Webber saying wins will be key, which of course they will be, but scoring points when you can’t win will be essential too.

Canada Preview – Seven from seven?

Canada is next up and it’s not unrealistic to think of a seventh winner from seven races. Michael Schumacher was strong in Monaco and Mercedes should be good in Canada where he’s won seven times already.

The Circuit Gilles Villeneuve in Montreal has long straights and slow corners, with Mercedes double DRS they’re sure to be on for at least pole position, and as they proved in Monaco, they’re not bad with traction out of slower turns.

Kimi Raikkonen and Romain Grosjean are always worth a bet this year, and are due a win given their competitiveness in general, although you’d have to side with Kimi to be the one who’d actually bring the car home.

Lewis Hamilton needs a win too, he’s always been strong in Canada. But who is most likely to double up for the first time this year?

Mercedes are the most hotly tipped for Canada, so if not Schuey, then Nico Rosberg looks to be the favourite for a second victory of the year. Then again, anything can happen, there was lots (and lots) of rain last year and that can throw up an even more unpredictable result than even Pirelli could try and provide.

It'll also be interesting to see how Red Bull do now the hole just before the rear wheels which directed air and exhaust gases towards the diffuser has been declared illegal by the FIA. That area of the car must be impervious, although slots that come to the edge of the floor are allowed.

But after the FIA had declared it legal before and the stewards have passed the car for several races, it's a bit of an odd decision, but it's happened before and it'll happen again.

Whatever happens the main contenders will all be there scrapping for points, making the title fight close and exciting but not quite the mixed up lottery that we’re lead to believe.