Monaco Forecast

Monaco is the race every driver wants to win. It's combination of tight slow corners and lack of meaningful straights surrounded by barriers which never forgive an error make it one of the most challenging circuits of the year and a true test of driver skill; it really is like threading the needle, except you have a turbo charged 750bhp monster behind you. 

The new power units are going to make this a massive challenge for the drivers this year. The power delivery means they're going to have to caress the throttle peddle, which will be magnified by the reduction in down force and the conservative Pirelli tyres meaning grip is not as bountiful as it once was. Another problem cited by Jenson Button is that a new track surface from Casino Square to until the start of the tunnel will offer no grip so cars with good traction that can get heat into their tyres will be needed even though it's predicted that that part of the circuit will be low grip whatever.

As usual they've brought the soft and super soft tyres. Monaco doesn't destroy the tyres like some tracks so the grip shouldn't be too bad. There is one DRS zone on the start finish straight but even that won't make passing easy. 

The weather looks like it won't complicate things too much, qualifying should be sunny while the race looks like it'll be much the same. However, Thursday practice has rain forecast at the moment so setting up the cars may prove difficult.

After a season which has so far been dominated by the Mercedes team, this weekend is a real chance for another team to shine. Well, so the theory goes at least. Now Mercedes have a great chassis, but it's their exceptional power unit which has really been giving Championship leader Lewis Hamilton and his team mate Nico Rosberg their quite significant advantage.

With Monaco's longest straight being not very long and actually quite curvy there is hope from the other teams and possibly from the fans too which would like to see a winner not driving a silver arrows.

We'll see how that pans out as the weekend goes on, but here's a few facts to start off with. Rosberg took pole position and won last year. The year before Michael Schumacher took pole position in a not so wonderful Merc. So far so ominous. 

However Mercedes boss Toto Wolff has said that in previous years Monaco has flattered them. Before this year they were very hard on the tyres and this track suited them. Tyre degradation is not so bad here and their car worked the tyres hard so got them up to temperature quicker. Although Rosberg won the race as slow as he dared to preserve them.

Now they've resolved these issues, they might not have quite the same advantage. Already both Mercedes and Fernando Alonso are predicting that this track represents an opportunity to upset the form book.

Red Bull are the likely contenders. They've probably got the best chassis on the grid. Corner for corner, Red Bull are there. It's when it comes down to grunt that their Renault engine loses out. The Mercedes advantage certainly won't be wiped out but you can definitely expect them to be a lot closer this weekend.

Sebastian Vettel would dearly love to get his season back on track and there's not much better of a drivers circuit to show nothing's wrong. Watch out for Daniel Ricciardo too. He's in exceptional form and could well continue to outperform Vettel. Webber often did around the streets, so there's nothing to say Ricciardo won't either. 

But Vettel seemed to turn a corner last time out in Spain and I think if anyone's going to be out gunning the Mercedes duo, particularly for pole position then it's going to be him. Then again, if you got pole in Monaco you can't be discounted from the win either.

Alonso too will be on the lookout for a strong result. We all know he can pull a great result from nowhere and Ferrari's chassis is only a little worse off than Mercedes and Red Bull. Again it's the power unit letting them down. But Monaco is a drivers circuit, it's one of the few places where a driver can really make a difference. Let's hope Kimi's positive upturn in form will continue too.

Other teams which may be in the mix could be McLaren. Button has been cautiously optimistic. Force India too look like they may be more competitive than in Spain. However the under achievers of the season so far, Williams might be fairly optimistic. I only say this on the basis of the Mercedes theory already discussed. Williams work their tyres the hardest this year so maybe they might spring a surprise particularly in qualifying. Felipe Massa took a great pole position in 2008, so don't discount him.

Lotus made significant progress in Spain and Romain Grosjean will be a man to watch. He's not gone brilliantly at Monaco in the past despite a fourth place grid slot in 2012. But I think he's getting better and better, he'll definitely be troubling the points finishes. Pastor Maldonado needs to get a good result this weekend. His season thus far has been pretty atrocious and with rumours of the Venezuela Government backing being withdrawn he needs to produce something positive to shout about.

McLaren's Kevin Magnussen will hope to use Monaco to show off his skills again after running well under the radar the last few races. He's had a bit of contact in the opening rounds so I hope the close barriers don't put him off. I'm really looking forward to seeing what Daniil Kvyat in the Toro Rosso can do as well. Monaco is a true test and he's been by far the most impressive rookie this year.

Sauber have admitted their updates didn't work in Spain, so I wonder if Marussia can hope to maybe steal a grid slot or two. Look out for Kamui Kobayashi too in the Caterham but I don't expect them to be causing any surprises.

It does all look like a rather interesting and exciting weekend ahead. It may all just be highly optimistic with regards to the fight at the front, perhaps looking for hope of more than just a world of silver, but there is a distinct possibility this may just be more than a Mercedes fight for the win. There are genuine reasons to believe that for the first, and maybe only time this season, Mercedes are under threat and that at least is a tantalising prospect as we head to the sports most challenging race.