The Belgian Grand Prix Forecast

I doubt there’s a single Formula 1 fan who doesn’t look forward to the Belgian Grand Prix at the legendary Spa Francorchamps. Its magnificent blend of fast and medium speed corners linked by flat out straights through the Ardennes Forests combine to make it the longest circuit currently on the calendar at 4.6 miles. There’s no other circuit you’d want Formula 1 to return with after its extended four week summer break.

The weather in Belgium makes this race notoriously unpredictable but if we can hazard a guess, then Friday looks bright, Saturday looks like rain and Sunday looks bright again, all three days having the relatively chilly high of only 19C. It all looks like it has the potential to be a mixed up grid for Sunday.

Pirelli are bringing the medium and soft tyre, which is probably advantageous because of the relatively cool temperatures. It’ll be easier to get heat into the tyres with softer compounds but with the high speed cornering going on, I don’t imagine that would have been too much of a problem anyway. This track is quite hard on tyre wear too but with the likelihood of rain during qualifying there’ll be a lot of fresh rubber available so there might be a fair few attacking strategies.

There are two DRS zones, one down the Kemmel Straight just after the famous Eau Rouge followed by Raidillon. The other is down the start finish straight into the tightest corner on the track La Source. Never mind the weather, this corner can cause a whole heap of unpredictability as 22 Formula 1 machines hurtle down to it after one of the shorter distances from grid to first turn.

So let’s look at the main contenders for victory this weekend and make some outrageous predictions. Ok so obviously the leading contender is Williams, therefore the most likely driver to win is Valtteri Bottas as he’s had the edge on Felipe Massa in recent races. That’s the hype that some of the F1 press would have you believe at least.

To be fair, this has a lot going for it, they’ve been quick on tracks with straight line speed as the main player and proved at Silverstone they can handle quick corners so what’s not to believe? Well Mercedes for one thing.

I think Williams will be the closest challenger to the Silver Arrows this weekend, but if you’re looking for a genuine chance of a Williams victory then I think you’ve got to look at Monza two weeks later which is straights and mostly slow corners. This weekend they will be players, but there real chance comes the race after.

Of course they’ll be up there this weekend, maybe even contenders for a front row grid slot but the win? I think it’s asking too much for them and with tyre wear high, I think Williams won’t be as free on strategy as some others. I hope Massa gets a decent result, he’s been plenty quick this year, but luck and accidents have made podiums difficult to come by. Bottas on the other hand had a strong run of podiums up until Hungary when the first safety car possibly took a fourth consecutive one away from him. 

Red Bull usually come back from the summer break stronger than ever and I’m sure they’ll have found some things again this year despite the two week summer factory shutdown. However with their Renault engine still lacking grunt compared to the Mercedes the next two races probably won’t be the kindest to them. The street track in Singapore is their next target for a possible chance at victory.

It’ll be interesting to see if Daniel Ricciardo still holds his edge over Sebastian Vettel. It was this time last year when Vettel started his run of nine consecutive wins. That’s not going to happen this time but he’ll be desperate to start battling with Ricciardo a bit more equally in this second half of the year.

There have been signs he’s turning a corner with his performance but it’ll be tough. Ricciardo is a world champion in the making, but having said that, to my mind at least a little change in circumstance and those two wins the Australian took could well have been Vettel’s. It’ll be definitely worth keeping a watch on the battle between the Red Bull drivers. At the moment you’d have to say if there’s a driver who might take an opportunity should it present itself, then it would be Ricciardo.

Ferrari need to take more risks says Ferrari team boss Marco Mattiacci. Well it’s too late for this car, I’m not sure they’re even bothering with any real development anymore, perhaps just tweaks. I’ve a feeling we could see a better showing from Kimi Raikkonen this weekend. He’s a star around here with four wins, although admittedly the last one was in 2009. If there’s anywhere where he could get the car to his liking just once this year it would be here.

Fernando Alonso will of course get a result from nothing, but I think he’ll be fighting for top six rather than podiums, but never dismiss Alonso, as I’ve said this race can be very unpredictable and if there’s chaos then expect Fernando to make sense of it all before anyone else. Whatever though, the car is lacking, the power unit lacks more, in normal circumstances Ferrari are hovering on the fringes of where the real action is.

Force India and McLaren are locked in a battle for fifth in the constructors. Force India usually go well here, definitely watch out for Nico Hulkenberg if the race gets a bit damp on occasions, and Sergio Perez if making the tyres last proves decisive.

I feel quite sad talking about McLaren as also-rans but that’s what they are at the moment. Kevin Magnussen has been sporadically impressive but I think Jenson Button has more than held his own against his rookie team mate.

Both of their seats for next year have been brought into question with rumours that McLaren want to bring in Alonso for their 2015 partnership with Honda. I think that’s highly unlikely but you never know so this will add even more impetus for the current McLaren drivers to get more out of their poor car than perhaps is reasonable to ask.

Button was supreme here in 2012, he won’t get a result like that but a similar level of performance would go some way to extending his career for another year.

Toro Rosso have signed another youngster for 2015 with the arrival of Max Verstappen but it’s their current kid who’ll be interesting to watch this weekend. Daniil Kvyat has impressed all year and at one of the true classic tests of a drivers skill I’m looking forward to seeing how he does.

Jean-Eric Vergne is the driver being replaced, but he deserves another chance somewhere else. He may not have the out and out qualifying pace of some but he is a brilliant race driver and has suffered too much from unreliability this year. He’s on the market now and if he really wants his Formula 1 adventure to continue then I expect some highlight performances over the coming months.

Lotus, Sauber and Marussia I imagine will be fairly static while over at Caterham they’ve replaced Kamui Kobayashi with three times Le Mans winner Andre Lotterer. The 32 year old German hasn’t driven a Formula 1 car since 2002 when he was test driver for Jaguar but he has driven for Audi in the top class of Endurance racing and knows how to use a hybrid system. He also has recent single seater experience from Japan so he’s no amateur.

It’s a shame for Kobayashi though, once again left on the side lines when he really should have a secure seat in F1. He brought no money to the team though and on this end of the grid it’s something you can’t be found to lack.

At the top end of the grid expect nothing to change apart from the championship battle getting ever more intense. Mercedes will of course be the team to beat at this race and for the rest of the year, they’re chassis and power unit are just too strong. Only bad luck can really stop them.

Nico Rosberg leads Lewis Hamilton by 11 points after 11 battles on track, with eight to go the victor of the war is still very much up in the air. Over the four week break both drivers will have thought of almost nothing else as they prepare to once again go wheel to wheel for the world championship.

They will be more focussed than ever, each of them knows it’s not often you get a shot at a world championship, you have to take your chance when you get it. Hamilton will come to Belgium with the slight psychological edge. He beat Rosberg in Hungary after starting from the pit lane while his team mate was on pole position. Yes, safety cars played their part but it was a fantastic Hamilton charge.

To add to that there was the team orders dispute when Lewis failed to move over, which he was quite right to do as the team have later conceded. Rosberg knows that if Lewis had moved out the way he probably would have won the race, but he should not expect any favours.

Mercedes have been suffering from reliability troubles in recent races and they’ll hope that they’ve resolved them to keep the fight between their two drivers as fair as possible. However, at Spa the cars are on full throttle for 80% of the lap and with only five power units available for the season all of which will have been used, there could well be some troubles, not just for Mercedes but for the entire grid.

Lewis goes well at Spa and I expect him to have the upper hand this weekend, but Rosberg is always there and never lets up. This is going down to the wire, but there’s no better way of getting an edge in the second half than starting out with a win at a true drivers track. Let battle recommence.

all photo's taken from autosport.com