Thursday, 12 March 2015

The Australian Grand Prix Forecast




Round 1 - Australia, Melbourne, Albert Park

Laps - 58

Pirelli compounds - Soft and Medium.

DRS Zones  - Two, on the start finish straight and between turns two and three.

Weather - Cloudy with temperatures hitting 23C on race day.

TV - Live on Skysports F1 (UK 5am lights out) and highlights on the BBC.

Pick a winner - Nico Rosberg to get his title challenge off to the perfect start for Mercedes.

Hot topics:

Sauber driver issues are likely to be discussed in the paddock this weekend. Giedo van der Garde was test driver for the Swiss team and claimed he had a valid contract for a 2015 race seat which has found to be correct by the Australian courts despite Sauber appealing. It's all rather messy and reflects badly on the team. Although there are various reasons behind it, in short Sauber needed more money from their drivers so hired Felipe Nasr and Marcus Ericsson instead of honouring van der Garde's contract. I'd still expect Nasr and Ericsson to race although that would risk Sauber being in contempt of court. It of course will eventually bring the discussion round to why the team reneged on a deal anyway, and of course that is money.

Fernando Alonso's accident and subsequent concussion is still a story full of intrigue and conspiracy. The likelihood is he got caught out, crashed, bumped his head, had a concussion and then doctors ruled him out. But apparently it's far more fun to think of more outlandish theories. Although it doesn't help that there has been contrasting information.

I think the grid are going to be stunned by just how far in front Mercedes are. This race is going to be all about Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg. It wasn't all fun and games this time last year, but it would certainly have been more relaxed as now they know where they stand with each other when it comes to the title fight. One has to strike first.

Manor's (formerly Marussia) resurrection is truly remarkable. Backed by OVO energy boss Stephen Fitzpatrick with ex-Sainsbury's CEO Justin King as interim chairman, Manor have been brought back to life. Team President Graeme Lowdon has worked tirelessly over the winter to get the team to Melbourne. Yes they'll struggle with an updated 2014 car, but work on a 2015 car is ongoing.

Predicting the headlines:

17 year old Max Verstappen for sensational debut.

McLaren to finish and score points.

Mercedes to dominate, Rosberg to shock Hamilton with overtake.

Williams, Ferrari fight for the podium but Ricciardo snatches it at the last.

Grosjean to comfortably score points in Lotus renaissance.

Vettel and Kimi rejuvenated for Ferrari.

Under the radar:

Power units are meant to be louder than last year according to those who attended testing. Of course this positive bit of news will be hushed as the powers that be have no intention of promoting their sport in a positive light.

Cost cutting will be a major talking point but one which might well be shoved aside as everyone's just relieved and amazed they've somehow managed to get 20 cars on the grid, when at some points over the winter it might have barely reached 16. Lots of deals including prize money advances have been done for some teams to get them to Australia. This year is going to be a struggle for many as the sport tries to find a way to overcomplicate matters further instead of just splitting the £1.8 billion income fairly.

The title chase:

It's already looking like it'll be an all Mercedes battle again. It could go one of two ways, Lewis Hamilton, full of confidence dominates the year or Rosberg has reset and come back stronger and takes the fight to the last race once again. I'm not going to rule out everyone else just yet either. It's the second year of fairly stable regulations, a lot of teams have huge room for development, while Mercedes could already be peaking. Of course that might just be hopeless optimism. We'll learn more when the lights go out on Sunday.

all photos taken from autosport.com

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