The Spanish Grand Prix Forecast

Round 5 - Spain, Circuit de Catalunya


Laps - 66

Pirelli Compounds - The Italian tyre firm are bringing their medium and hard ranges to Spain saying that like last year this race is likely to be a two stop strategy.

DRS Zones - As with most tracks there are two zones where the drivers can press their magic button and suddenly they get instant drag reduction, Spain being one of the places where this system was sorely needed. The pit straight and between turns 9 and 10 get these magical passing zones.

Weather - It's looking good for a dry race this weekend, which lets face it, is a bit of a shame. A nice bit of precipitation always makes things that bit more unpredictable. Temperatures will range from 27C to 24C with race day predicted to be on the lower end of that scale.

TV - Live on SkySports F1 with highlights on the BBC (lights out 1pm).

Pick a winner: I want to say Romain Grosjean, mainly for the fact that that would be a bit of turn up for the books. I can't though, I can't even suggest anyone other than Mercedes' Lewis Hamilton. The British driver has been dominant so far this year, I don't think Rosberg has it in him to challenge consistently this year, he's looking nice in the support role. The Ferrari's will be lurking, they're definitely not to be discounted. If you're looking for a real challenge to Lewis, it's got to be either Kimi Raikkonen or Sebastian Vettel.

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The Spanish Grand Prix is the first race of the ever shorter European season. Traditionally it's where the first major upgrades are introduced. Ferrari have certainly come with a barrage of developments as they throw money at the car to try to get properly on terms with Mercedes. Mercedes have said they do not want to get into a spending war with the Italian team, but if the Scuderia are suddenly on equal terms I don't think it'll be long before Mercedes open up the cheque book if they want to retain their titles. Having said that I believe Mercedes to have just about enough of an advantage that they won't have to break the bank to stay ahead.

Red Bull have brought major updates, particularly a new nose. However, their power unit partner Renault have decided to focus on reliability rather than performance as they try to get back to the front. Honda haven't used any of their engine development tokens as McLaren try to get away from the back of the grid but they have assured that they have made changes. It'll be interesting to see if there's any shake up of the order but I'd hazard a guess that apart from McLaren maybe moving further towards the top 10 there won't be too many surprises. Of course the most obvious design change at McLaren is their livery, which please judge for yourself. McLaren haven't had a nice livery for a few years now. They still haven't.

Valtteri Bottas is rumoured to have signed a pre-contract with Ferrari. Whether that would be for next season or not is unconfirmed. Of course this has been denied all round. It also leaves Kimi's future uncertain as he looks for the team to take up his option for next year. This could just be the team using Bottas to help keep up Kimi's upturn in performance this year. Watch with interest.

Next years calendar is also bound to be talked about as it was announced that the opening round of the 2016 season in Australia will start on 3rd April fitting in 21 races up to the end of November. It's widely reported that this is meant to show the teams that they could do more races as the season usually starts early to mid march.

Currently the teams feel unable to manage more than 20 races. Personally I think 20 races is more than enough and that the sport would risk saturation. Grand Prix are meant to be special events but now they're just given to anyone with a dodgy human rights record. Ah, it must be the distinct lack of money as Formula 1's commercial rights holders fail to promote the sport in a positive light.

Susie Wolff was in first practice today for Williams finishing just .8 of a second slower than team mate for the morning Felipe Massa. She once again said she is more than capable of being the first woman to race in Formula 1 for 40 years. However, her racing record leaves nothing to be desired. She is a good driver but deserving of being in Formula 1? It was said on Skysports F1 that she would be a trailblazer for women, but surely women and motor sport fans in general would like to see someone whose truly earned her place in the sport by winning championships in junior formulae or at the least a few races. Plenty of men have reached F1 with less desirable back grounds, but would she even be ready to race? She hasn't since 2012. She'd be better off dovetailing her Williams commitments with a program in the WEC or even have a go at Formula E.

Predicting the headlines:

Alonso to get home points for McLaren Honda.

Vettel and Kimi to be close for Ferrari but not quite enough to properly challenge Mercedes.

Hamilton to push Rosberg further into support role.

Maldonado to get a point then crash as he celebrates.

Red Bull updates to help them up the grid but not enough while Renault still struggles.

Under the radar:

Hamilton still hasn't signed a new Mercedes contract. It's been 99.6% done for a while but still they stall. Lewis has made interesting comments recently about growing up loving Ferrari, he's also just take delivery of a new road going Ferrari and said in an interview he'd only know how good he is against Vettel if they were in the same team.

This might all be to pressure Mercedes into accepting what he wants, but they also have the best car at the moment and wouldn't find it hard to replace him. I'm sure they'll stay together, but it's a good rumour.

The title chase:

There needs to be someone pushing Lewis into the pack if this title battle is to come alive. I think Vettel is the most likely challenger, Rosberg is nearly defeated. Unless he can win in Spain or in Monaco where he has admittedly won the last two years, then I don't think he'll be launching a championship move this season.

Ferrari have thrown lots of new parts at the car, so if Vettel and Kimi can get closer we might have a fight on our hands. Practice seemed to show Ferrari at least within striking distance, but it was Lewis leading the way once again. He's in a serene state of mind, nothing can trouble him.

all photos from autosport.com