British Grand Prix Forecast

Andy Murray’s been knocked out of Wimbledon, the England Football team were long since knocked out the world cup, ok Chris Froome has a distinct possibility of doubling up his Tour de France win, but if you want almost guaranteed British success then look no further than the British Grand Prix.

I’m not just talking about the high probability that Lewis Hamilton will triumph or at least be fighting for victory, but his team Mercedes may be racing under the German flag, but as with seven other teams, they are based in Britain. Not enough is made of the success story that is British motorsport.

It’s a good time to highlight it as it is the 50^th Anniversary of Silverstone’s hosting of the British Grand Prix. Among the events going on will be demonstrations of old cars that have raced around this famous track which has changed so much over the years yet always remains familiar. Alain Prost, Damon Hill and Jackie Stewart amongst others are all taking to the track in various cars over the weekend in celebration of a great venue.

One of the major people taking to the track is Susie Wolff for Williams. She will be driving in first practice on Friday morning as she becomes the first female to take part in an official Formula 1 session since Giovanna Amati in 1992. Wolff is the team’s test and development driver and took part in the young driver test at Silverstone last year as well as the test after the Spanish Grand Prix.

She lapped competitively and so it’ll be very interesting to see how she goes up against the regular drivers of at Williams and the rest of the grid. She has hopes to gain a race seat one day but at 31 maybe that time has already passed her? Then again Damon Hill didn’t make it to Formula 1 until he was 32 and he didn’t do too badly. There’s a lot more to be written about women in Formula 1 but that’s for another day.

Wolff may well have to contend with some pretty appalling conditions as rain is forecast for Friday. Saturday is little better while race day is clear and fine, although other weather services say there is a chance of rain then too. There are two DRS zones, one on the hanger straight and the other on the Wellington straight, separated by about half the track. Pirelli have brought the Hard and Medium compound. Medium should provide decent grip while the hard might last well but not give up much grip, depending on how well a car works the tyres and the temperature.

The British Grand Prix is almost the halfway point of the championship and after looking invincible in the early races it is only now that the dominant package of Formula 1 is beginning to show signs of vulnerability. Mercedes have suffered problems in the last two races, it says a lot about their advantage that they still got a 1-2 and a second place out of it. Nevertheless it’s still encouragement for their rivals to perhaps sneak an opportunity.

A lot of their problems seem to have come from overheating which has then affected the brakes, particularly on Hamilton’s car. But Silverstone isn’t a track to cause the brakes too much concern, so Mercedes may have a trouble free weekend, and if anyone needs that it’s Lewis Hamilton. He’s suffered a few problems over the last couple of races, some of which were his mistakes, but generally it’s been the car.

Hopefully he can have a clean weekend. I expect the Mercedes team to return to a front row lock out this weekend and have victory once more. Last year Lewis was much quicker than team mate Nico Rosberg and he’ll definitely want to be in that position again as he fights to close that 29 point gap in the championship. Hopefully for Lewis he won’t be suffering any tyre blow outs like 2013 which cost him the race leaving Rosberg to mop up the victory after Sebastian Vettel also retired. He can’t afford any more retirements and what better place to launch a comeback than his home Grand Prix.

I think Red Bull will replace Williams as Mercedes’ main challengers this weekend. The previous two races have suited Williams. They are extremely quick in a straight line thanks to their Mercedes power unit and slippery nature of their car; they can handle the slow corners but when it comes to the faster turns they don’t have enough down force to cope. Silverstone is full of medium and fast corners, so I expect Williams to fall back slightly although they’ll still be competitive, but maybe not race winning speed like they were in Austria.

Red Bull has a great car sadly let down by their Renault power unit. On a track like Silverstone they should be back to being the main challengers. Daniel Ricciardo has tasted victory and was clearly a little disappointed to then be fighting for eighth place at the very next race. This weekend should see him back up fighting for the podiums and if there is a sprinkling of rain you never know… He will definitely be the one to take advantage should Mercedes slip up again.

Vettel would like to get in the way of that, but at the moment he just doesn’t seem to have an answer for Ricciardo. Once Red Bull sort the car out to his liking then he should be back where he belongs, but other drivers might have compensated around the problems. It would be nice if he just had a clean weekend, for more than anyone apart from the Lotus drivers he has suffered with reliability. Vettel has gone well at Silverstone before so maybe he’ll get one over on Ricciardo but having said that this is where Ricciardo convinced Red Bull to hire him in the young driver test last year. His pace and consistency were very favourable when compared to Vettel.

Fernando Alonso isn’t looking forward to the race, last time they raced on the hard tyre in Spain he was lapped. I think Ferrari have given up on this year already which means Alonso is staring at a winless campaign for the first time since 2009. I hope his motivation continues to be high as his current performances continue to impress, but he should be fighting for wins. Let’s also see if Kimi Raikkonen can finally get to grips with this years cars.

Caterham have been sold to a Swiss consortium advised by former HRT boss Colin Kolles. We won’t see an immediate improvement but hopefully this group will inject some cash into the team and they can join Marussia as point scorers too.

Keep an eye out for Force India too especially as the rivalry between Sergio Perez and Nico Hulkenberg begins to heat up. Nico in particular seems like he’s becoming frustrated with the performance of Perez over the last few races when he’s been outraced fairly comprehensively. Toro Rosso’s Daniil Kvyat continues to be the rookie of the year. He may have retired in the last three races but when he’s still showing great qualifying pace to line up seventh in Austria, you know he’s still one to watch.

Lotus were getting better up until the similar tracks of Canada and Austria so let’s see if they return to a more competitive state too. McLaren have been promising much for a while now then not delivering. I don’t think Jenson Button will be challenging for much more than a few points but the crowd looks set to be turned pink in tribute to his late father penchant for wearing pink shirts.

Hamilton will certainly be challenging for more than a few points, it has to be this weekend when he starts bring the points gap down to Rosberg, the championship is still very open, but another result for Rosberg and Lewis could find it very hard to mount a comeback. So where better place to start a charge than at his home Grand Prix at Silverstone. 

all photo's taken from autosport.com

Ayrton Senna

I remember April 11^th 1993 so well. It’s the only time I ever saw Ayrton Senna race live. The European Grand Prix at Donnington has gone down in history as one of the great races as Senna drove through a myriad of conditions to take his 38^th victory. There would only be three more brilliant wins before his untimely death twenty years ago on this day at the San Marino Grand Prix.

I’ve written before about Donnington here, but I realise how lucky I was to witness a true legend of the sport compete in one his best seasons despite not winning the championship. His skills in the wet that day and on so many other occasions were truly astonishing, he just left everyone behind. 

Senna was a fascinating racing driver; there was so much about him that really shone through to take him above other competitors. His total commitment, his belief in justice that often spilled into controversy and divided opinion about his racing ethics, his compassion to other drivers when out of the car, but his raw speed was something so exciting to witness.

The sad thing is there was so much still to come. His rivalry with Alain Prost is well documented. Prost was regarded as the best when Senna came into the sport. When he became Prost’s team mate at McLaren Senna set out to destroy him. He wanted to be known as the sport’s sole number one.

That he established himself so incontrovertibly and ruthlessly made him someone you just couldn’t ignore. But there was a stage of his career that wasn’t allowed to play out. How fascinating would it have been to see how he’d have reacted to the threat of Michael Schumacher whose star was quickly rising and who Senna knew was the next big name the sport would know? Could someone do to him what he did to Prost? Undoubtedly it would have been dramatic and surely controversial, controversy being the one word that has followed both these titans of the sport.

Senna brought racing into a new realm and is often cited as inspiration by today's stars such as Lewis Hamilton. But he arguably made Formula 1 a contact sport which can be seen by how drivers these days run everything so close to the edge when racing wheel to wheel. But Senna was also a keen advocate for safety. The aftermath of Senna and the often forgotten Roland Ratzenberger’s death at Imola made the sport so much safer over the years to the extent that there hasn’t been a fatality since.

With many people who die too soon their legacy is embellished. We remember only the good parts and raise them up to be more than they were. This is in part true of Senna, his legend now is almost like a demigod, but he was certainly fallible and that’s what made him so interesting and continues to do so for many people. 

His total commitment to driving was amazing, his technical ability brilliant but his emotions sometimes made him vulnerable and could push him to do things that he knew was wrong but he could justify as being right which is why we have Japan 1990. He crashed into Prost at over 150mph to right a wrong from 1989 when he believed the title was unfairly taken from him showing the dark side of himself when on other occasions he'd stop his car on track to make sure other drivers were ok. His was a complex character.

Personally I don’t think he was the best driver that ever competed I do think he was the most exciting though. The name Senna just conjures speed. When you heard him talk it was almost like a spiritual lesson. Listen to him reflect about his qualifying laps at the 1988 Monaco Grand Prix where he believed he was driving almost unconsciously such was his focus. He qualified two seconds clear of Prost that day, his own team mate. It was one of 65 pole positions to go with his 41 wins and three world championships that made him probably the fastest driver the sport has seen.

In Monaco he demonstrated that speed better than anywhere. He committed himself so much more around the tight confines of those streets than anyone ever has before or since to win six times in the principality. It was tragic that the next race after the San Marino Grand Prix in 1994 was Monaco. 

I remember sitting in front of the television twenty years ago and watching my hero die. It was one of the saddest moments I remember witnessing. After he crashed and the car came to a stop, it looked like his head moved. I thought he was about to get out of the car as they always seemed to.

There hadn’t been a death in 12 years at a race meeting until April 30^th and Ratzenberger crashed, I’d been too young to know it was possible. Now the next day the one driver who seemed invincible wasn’t getting out of his car and it was truly unbelievable.

So much good has come out of that tragic situation. The safety in Formula 1 is amazing now and the Ayrton Senna foundation which the man himself was already establishing was continued by his family to help under privileged children in Brazil.

However, Senna had created so much good before in his life and not just with his racing. But it’s in the car that I and many others remember him. That yellow crash helmet so distinctive in his early years in the black and gold Lotus or in the winning years in the red and white McLaren’s that he drove so hard, so fast and never giving up.

I remember him at Donnington, driving out of the spray towards me and shooting past for lap after lap, crushing the dominant Williams Renault cars and just leaving everyone else behind. That’ll always be the ultimate Senna memory to me. 

all photo's taken from autosport.com

Ferrari vs McLaren: The Greatest Rivalry

The Ron Howard directed movie ‘Rush’ about the 1976 Formula 1 season depicts the rivalry between James Hunt and Niki Lauda driving for McLaren and Ferrari respectively. It’s a great film, the on track action is exhilarating, and the performances great, particularly that by Daniel Brühl who plays Lauda.

But this isn’t a review of the film, great though it is and well worth seeing, this is about looking at a few more of those McLaren Ferrari rivalries, because in many ways they have come to define the sport. How appropriate that a Hollywood Formula 1 film should feature the two biggest names of the sport. These two teams have been competing now for 50 years; theirs is one of the most enduring conflicts in Formula 1 history and always gives that extra edge when they’re competing for the top prize.

1974 was when they first duelled properly for the title. Clay Regazzoni missing out for the Scuderia by three points as Emerson Fittipaldi took the Woking teams first drivers title and their first constructors crown too.

Niki Lauda hit back for Ferrari the following year trouncing Fittipaldi, then came the famous ’76 season in which Hunt and Lauda emerged as motor racing greats and firmly established the McLaren and Ferrari rivalry in the veins of the sport. Lauda’s come back from almost being burnt alive has to go down as the most incredible piece of heroism the Formula 1 world has ever seen. While Hunt's drive in Japan to secure third and the title in the final race was mesmeric too.

There then followed a period where the teams never really competed on an equal footing despite some brief scuffles such as Ferrari’s Michele Alboreto offering a vague sort of challenge to McLaren’s Alain Prost in 1985 . However, here in chronological order are some of the best McLaren and Ferrari scraps.

1990

This started out as an Ayrton Senna vs Alain Prost/McLaren vs McLaren war, but when Prost left to join Ferrari, the battle was joined between the two teams once again. Much has been written about the intense rivalry between these two greats. Needless to say it was never going to end well. Resentment and bitterness had been boiling away for well over a year by the time we reached the start of the 1990 season. 

All season long they battled, Senna starting off the best, but Prost steadily catching him until they reached the penultimate race in Japan. We all know what happened, as Senna deliberately crashed into Prost at well over 120mph to secure a title that looked like it was slipping away. 

1990 was a political/conspiratorial drama that was fuelled by a years worth of personal feuding that played itself out on the track in the most thrilling and ultimately dangerous way.

1998 – 2000

After years in the doldrums Michael Schumacher had lifted Ferrari once again to become title challengers. They were surely about to overcome Williams and finally take the title for the first time since 1979. They didn't figure on Adrian Newey leaving Williams and moving to McLaren to work more of his aero magic.

McLaren were dominant in 1998 and Mika Hakkinen had come of age. This was a friendlier and more respectful rivalry between the Finn and Schumacher, but it had its intensity too. Ferrari fought back after a poor start and Schumacher managed to take the title to the last race of the season in Japan. 

He stalled and a charge back was thwarted by a puncture, Hakkinen dominated the race and took McLaren back to the front for the first time since Senna won in 1991. Ferrari meanwhile were still waiting.

In ’99 Schumacher broke his leg and I think Hakkinen and McLaren believed they had it won. That season turned into less of a McLaren vs Ferrari battle and more into a Hakkinen vs himself battle. The lack of Schumacher seemed to dull him, and he had to fight hard to not let Ferrari’s number 2 Eddie Irvine snatch the title away. Another last race battle kept Hakkinen as Champion.

Finally it all came right again for the Scuderia. Schumacher dominated the early stages of 2000 for the Scarlet team, but a mid-season slump allowed Mika back in, and he was leading the title chase with three rounds to go. Schuey struck back though, and at the penultimate race, again in Japan, he could wrap up the title. 

What followed was a performance by two drivers who were just on a completely different level than the rest of the field. They tore away, and it was only a spit of rain that turned it in Schumacher’s favour to end 21 years of hurt for Ferrari; a tremendous way to win.

2003

Schumacher had now gone onto dominate the next couple of years, but a new Finnish superstar Kimi Raikkonen had arrived on the scene and was showing just how good he could be. Despite taking only one win to Schumacher's six he took the then five time champion to the last race in Japan. 

Kimi went full tilt at his first chance of glory while it looked as if Schumacher crumbled; eventually though second wasn't enough and Schumacher managed to just about scrape a point to secure his sixth crown.

2007

Kimi was now at Ferrari but this season was more about McLaren vs McLaren again, as Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamilton went head to head. It was a messy season with the spy-gate affair going off and Alonso falling out with the team, it was a drama you couldn’t take your eyes off. So inward was their battle they forgot about Raikkonen who stole the championship from them by one point at the final race in Brazil. McLaren and Ferrari took a clean sweep of victories that year.

2008

This was an equally dramatic season as the one before, but it came down to Lewis Hamilton for McLaren vs Felipe Massa for Ferrari. They both had their share of glory and of woes, but this season between the two teams was a friendly battle, but no less intense. 

In fact 2008 was perhaps the most dramatic finale to a Formula 1 season ever. Massa had won his home race in Brazil superbly and with Hamilton lying sixth as they’d entered the last lap, he’d also won the championship. But the rain was falling, Toyota driver Timo Glock had stayed out on dry tyres, and Lewis was catching catching catching. On the last corner of the last lap Lewis passed him for fifth and so won the crown in the most amazing way. 

The Lost Years

Since then we haven’t had a good McLaren vs Ferrari battle. We should have done, in 2010 Lewis was involved in the title fight to the last race with Red Bull’s Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber as well as Ferrari’s Fernando Alonso but he never had a chance. In 2012 too Lewis should have been a challenger, but his team sadly let him down, an Alonso/Ferrari against Hamilton/McLaren would have been spectacular as some of their all too brief on-track battles have since demonstrated.

But sometimes other teams come to the fore, Red Bull being the latest, but soon McLaren and Ferrari will recommence battle and the oldest rivalry in the sport will be fighting for the grand prize once again.