Let battle commence

The engines are about to roar (slightly louder) into life as the teams prepare in Melbourne for the opening round of the 2015 Formula 1 world championship. Testing, as always, has given us a vague picture of what to expect, but there has been enough to colour in some of the outlines we've been presented with.

I'd love to be sitting here about to write that this could be the most unpredictable season in years but I can tell no lies. Mercedes, like last year, are sitting at the top of the pile with if anything an increased margin of superiority despite the drivers saying the set up isn't great. Lewis Hamilton has remarked he'd like more competition from outside his own team but for now at least it's looking more likely that we're going to be seeing Lewis up against his team mate Nico Rosberg once again.

That's no bad thing, despite the sports apparent inability to promote the good things about Formula 1 such as the new power unit technology which saw the cars given faster motors using a third less fuel, or the fantastic wheel to wheel on track action we saw, last year was an epic contest between the two Mercedes team mates.

I think we can expect more of the same. Rosberg will come back stronger from his defeat. He'll have to if wants to stand a chance. He needs to lay down an early marker, particularly in wheel to wheel combat to show he's not going to be a walk over. Rosberg is a deep thinker, and he'll have analysed everything from last year to return to battle a more complete driver. Despite some circumstances which went against Lewis, Rosberg has already shown he is a match in qualifying, but the races are where the points are delivered.

If Rosberg has stepped up a level this year, then will it be enough to be champion? I'd hazard a guess and say no. Lewis is too strong a driver, too great a racer and perhaps the ultimate over taker. He will have the confidence of being champion, of having taken 11 wins in 2014 to Rosberg's mere five. Lewis will be supremely confident and he seemed to have sorted his mental fragility, particularly in the run in to the final race when he took six wins from the final seven races.

However, he has once again broken up with his on-off girlfriend Nicole Scherzinger. If his mood is not positive then he can break, and Rosberg could infiltrate the positivity from 2014 and erode it with a few early victories. When the reliability problems struck Lewis in the early going last year, there were times when he seemed to be questioning if the team were treating each of their drivers fairly. That way, darkness leads. But I believe Lewis will carry on where he left off in 2014, and despite a stronger challenge from Rosberg, he'll claim a third title to match his hero Ayrton Senna. But, there's plenty to say otherwise.

Behind Mercedes comes a tight pack of Williams, Ferrari and Red Bull. Williams have the all important Mercedes power unit which has been improved. They also have Valtteri Bottas who is a likely future champion and is working methodically towards a first Grand Prix victory. Felipe Massa already has 11 of those from his time at Ferrari and on his day could well earn another one. Either one could grab a win should Mercedes falter.

Ferrari have made changes. A lot of changes. Their new chassis seems good, and the power unit has been improved greatly. The most obvious staff change is the hiring of Sebastian Vettel in place of Fernando Alonso. Kimi Raikkonen remains despite an atrocious 2014 campaign where he was soundly thrashed by Alonso. However, the new Ferrari has left Kimi smiling (which is odd), the car is much more suited to him and he should bounce back with a decent campaign. 

I think eyebrows were raised when Vettel was hired for the Scuderia despite it being known Ferrari had coveted Red Bull's prodigal son for some time. Here was a team letting go of Alonso and hiring Vettel, a driver who was in the process of being fairly beaten by Daniel Ricciardo. But all was not as it seemed for Vettel in 2014. He'd just come off the back of four consecutive seasons as world champion and was faced with a car that was not doing what he wanted it to do.

No one else had maximised the exhaust blown diffusers as well as Vettel that had been banned for 2014. It left him slightly at a loss as the back end of the car would no longer stick the way he wanted it to. The Renault power unit left a title challenge unachievable and Ricciardo had given him a hurry up that he couldn't respond to as he adapted to regulations he didn't like for a title he wouldn't win. It's little wonder his motivation waned a little.

In winter testing you could see the smile was back, he's excited by the new challenge of emulating his hero Michael Schumacher to take Ferrari back to the top. He'll be challenged by Kimi this year, but I can't see Vettel not winning this battle. He may even sneak a win given the right circumstances, but this is a rejuvenated driver, and over the coming years I expect Ferrari to get stronger, as there's not many who work as hard as Vettel to achieve success.

Red Bull are probably not feeling optimistic. Renault haven't made the strides they wanted them to, but yet another decent chassis and the promise of improvements for their power unit should see them comfortably battling for best of the rest, particularly as the season develops. They've hired Daniil Kvyat as Vettel's replacement. He's only had a year in F1 but he'll make a good impression but I don't expect him to outshine the star of 2014 Daniel Ricciardo.

Ricciardo was brilliant last season, taking apart his four time champion team mate to the extent that even before Vettel announced his departure it already appeared to be Daniel's team. I think we can expect more of the same and despite looking like they might be slightly adrift of Williams and Ferrari at the moment it would come as no surprise to see Ricciardo being the one to force a win if Mercedes have problems, or even if they don't. I just hope the wait for Renault improvements doesn't hold him back too much but I think he'll be fighting for podiums all year long.

Toro Rosso have looked fairly rapid in testing. They have the youngest driver line up on the grid with Max Verstappen at 17 and Carlos Sainz Jnr at 20 combining to make an age which is just two years older than Jenson Button.

Verstappen is the prodigy and throughout testing he's looked calm and assured. I expect some good results from him and some outstanding performances. Sainz has looked a little wilder, but I think both will have their day in the sun with Verstappen the one who will be keeping Kvyat on his toes.

Lotus look a lot better this season. The chassis is improved and the switch to Mercedes power should give them an immediate pace injection. Romain Grosjean will deliver them the points while Pastor Maldonado should be able to deliver debris and a few starring results.

Sauber looked too quick in testing, but it did reinforce the belief that Ferrari have made significant improvements to their power unit. Felipe Nasr and Marcus Ericsson have brought significant funds to the team but both are race winners in GP2 and are capable of delivering results. The Swiss team shouldn't suffer another pointless campaign as they did last season.

Force India didn't bring their new car out until there were just two and a half days of testing left. To their credit it ran reliably pretty much throughout clocking some significant mileage. They might be lingering towards the rear of the field at first but I think they'll soon get it all sorted out and be racing for points. Sergio Perez will likely spring a couple of surprise results as is his way, while Nico Hulkenberg will once again produce a decent season worthy of a top team taking a punt on him.

However, he's signed up for a Le Mans driver with Porsche this year and I can see him joining those ranks permanently at some point. I fear a career in a top car may well have slipped past him.

Marussia, or Manor, are back on the grid. They've adjusted their 2014 car to 2015 spec with a full 2015 car due out later in the season. It's a great story to have them back on the grid bringing the total number of cars up to an acceptable 20. With no testing and running a year old engine it'll be remarkable if they actually qualify for the race, but it's great to have them back anyway. Formula 1 needs these teams. So far they have signed Will Stevens who did a decent job for Caterham in a one off race at the last race in Abu Dhabi. Roberto Mehri will fill the other seat for now.

And then we have McLaren Honda. I'm not talking about them last because I think they'll be bringing up the rear of the grid in Australia, although it is a possibility, but because there's no real place to put them. They've shown terrible reliability, the Honda isn't running smoothly, and they only just beat the total mileage of Force India despite having nine and a half days more running. Or more accurately sitting around in the garage as mechanics tried to fix the numerous issues.

Red Bull were in a terrible state this time last year and went on to take three wins. The thing is the Honda hasn't run anywhere near full power, their car has been given a Red Bull make over thanks to the acquisition of Peter Prodromou from the fizzy drinks team. They have Fernando Alonso and Jenson Button as drivers. There is a lot going for this team. I believe once they're up and running properly they're either going to be terrible or potential Mercedes challengers. Significantly, despite the woes the team are said to be still quietly confident. Or maybe it's just blind optimism.

Of course it's not just on the technical front that there have been set backs. In the second test Alonso crashed leaving him with a concussion which has ruled him out of the opening race. Kevin Magnussen will step up hoping to show the team exactly why they should have kept him instead of Button.

The whole Alonso affair is steeped with conspiracy theories. It does seem odd about some of the information or lack of information that has come out about the accident, but I hope we'll see Alonso ready to go for the second round in Malaysia. Alonso is desperate to win another title and this is certainly not how he would have wanted to start his second stint at McLaren especially as Ferrari seem to have built a decent car again.

So Mercedes are out at the front, but with fairly stable regulations there's only so much more they can develop. I think the other teams will be coming for them towards the end of the season, but by then it'll be too late and we'll be celebrating a Mercedes driver as world champion. The question is which one?

all photos taken from autosport.com

Alonso to miss season opener in Australia

Fernando Alonso will miss the season opener in Australia on 15th March due to worries about second impact syndrome. A statement from McLaren reported by autosport.com says 'Fernando's doctors have recommended to him that, following the concussion he sustained in a testing accident on February 22nd, for the time being he should seek to limit as far as is possible any environmental risk factors that could potentially result in his sustaining another concussion so soon after his previous one'.

Alonso has been allowed to return to training in preparation for the Malaysian Grand Prix two weeks later on the 29th March. It's a strange situation as there has been conflicting information about the accident in winter testing after which Alonso spent three days in hospital.

McLaren boss Ron Dennis suggested Alonso hadn't got a concussion, but that is now known to be wrong. The doctors say physically he is fine and the Spaniard believes he is ready to race, however with concussion it is good to be safe.

Kevin Magnussen will replace Alonso, driving at the race where he made such an impact last season. It'll be a great opportunity for him to show up Jenson Button too, the man who was chosen ahead of him to partner Alonso this season.

Testing times

We've had two four day tests and at the time of writing all the cars had just pulled into the garage for lunch at the circuit de Catalunya, just outside of Barcelona, leaving just a day and a half to go for the teams to get it right. Two weeks tomorrow the opening round in Australia would have been and gone, we'd know who our first winner was and have our first answers as to who will be king in 2015.

Testing goes a long way to ironing out the little problems that can be so catastrophic during a race. Getting the miles on the car, understanding it, lap by lap knowing what it will do and then extracting that performance and more. Below are some photos taken from autosport.com from the first test at Jerez and the last and current test outside of Barcelona.

There's been some cold mornings, but you'd expect that for winter testing!

Mercedes leapt out of the pits early in Jerez and despite a few hiccups along the way have continued logging the miles while hovering near the top of the times despite running slower tyres.

Lotus look in better shape this year after switching to Mercedes power.

Ferrari made a spectacular start to testing in Jerez, but have since been a bit more circumspect. They've certainly made progress over the winter though.

Sauber have been relaxing at the top of the times a lot, which goes to show never trust testing times. However, they look like they'll be a bit more competitive after last years nil points campaign. A further good sign for the progress Ferrari have made with their power unit.

It's been a troubling start for the reunion of McLaren Honda. They've not got many laps on the board, and there have been many problems.

Consequently returnee Fernando Alonso has been hanging around the garage a lot. After his accident last week, he's had to skip the final test and there are even doubts he could make it to Australia. A lot of mystery seems to surround what happened.

However, progress was made yesterday at McLaren. Jenson Button managed 100 laps yesterday. I think McLaren could be dark horses for a few wins this year, their chassis is looking a lot better while the Honda has plenty of untapped potential.

Red Bull may well have slipped down the order a bit. Adrian Newey has taken a step back from design duties, although still a great influence but they haven't set the world alight over the winter. I think Ricciardo should have the measure of Kvyat too. Never rule this team out. Renault's power unit still seems out of sorts too.

The Toro Rosso is apparently a bit skittish, but Max Verstappen and Carlos Sainz Jnr have logged plenty of miles as they aim to get up to speed. Their combined age is just 37, but both, Verstappen in particular look at ease in the car. Expect some action from these guys.

Williams have kept themselves to themselves, but again have managed plenty of miles and not really gone for out and out pace during testing.

Mercedes have just kept on sorting everything out but Nico Rosberg served a statement of intent when they finally stuck on some soft compound tyres and blitzed everyone with a time 1.5 seconds quicker than anyone else that day.

Force India missed the first test, only had their 2014 car for the second test and then only brought out their 2015 cars at the second day of this final test. Still it seemed reliable out of the box, they just need to get as much mileage as they can.

Grosjean has been pushing the Lotus, he deserves to have a decent car to allow him to attack for podiums once again, although I think he may have to settle for points.

Kimi Raikkonen had actual enthusiasm for his new Ferrari. After a terrible year last year, this car seems far more suited to his style of driving. Watch out for a return to form from Kimi.

If anyone is going to be the Mercedes main rival this year, it looks like Williams have kept up the momentum from a great 2014 to push even harder in 2015. They've shown their hand a little over the first couple of days of the final test, I think they may grab a win this year. Whether it's Bottas or Massa is too close to call.

Don't rule out Vettel getting a win in his debut season for Ferrari. He topped the times on the opening two days in Jerez, the car seems a lot more suited to him than last years Red Bull. He also seems to have acquired renewed motivation, Ferrari look to have turned a corner.

Great news that Manor (formerly Marussia) look like they should be back on the grid for Australia. They're looking to race a modified 2014 car with a 2015 machine on the way. Good luck to them.

Meanwhile the rest have two more days to get some laps in, get reliability and most importantly the speed.

At Mercedes though, it looks effortless. It's going to take a lot to beat the Silver Arrows in 2015. 

all photo's taken from autosport.com