Let battle commence

The engines are about to roar (slightly louder) into life as the teams prepare in Melbourne for the opening round of the 2015 Formula 1 world championship. Testing, as always, has given us a vague picture of what to expect, but there has been enough to colour in some of the outlines we've been presented with.

I'd love to be sitting here about to write that this could be the most unpredictable season in years but I can tell no lies. Mercedes, like last year, are sitting at the top of the pile with if anything an increased margin of superiority despite the drivers saying the set up isn't great. Lewis Hamilton has remarked he'd like more competition from outside his own team but for now at least it's looking more likely that we're going to be seeing Lewis up against his team mate Nico Rosberg once again.

That's no bad thing, despite the sports apparent inability to promote the good things about Formula 1 such as the new power unit technology which saw the cars given faster motors using a third less fuel, or the fantastic wheel to wheel on track action we saw, last year was an epic contest between the two Mercedes team mates.

I think we can expect more of the same. Rosberg will come back stronger from his defeat. He'll have to if wants to stand a chance. He needs to lay down an early marker, particularly in wheel to wheel combat to show he's not going to be a walk over. Rosberg is a deep thinker, and he'll have analysed everything from last year to return to battle a more complete driver. Despite some circumstances which went against Lewis, Rosberg has already shown he is a match in qualifying, but the races are where the points are delivered.

If Rosberg has stepped up a level this year, then will it be enough to be champion? I'd hazard a guess and say no. Lewis is too strong a driver, too great a racer and perhaps the ultimate over taker. He will have the confidence of being champion, of having taken 11 wins in 2014 to Rosberg's mere five. Lewis will be supremely confident and he seemed to have sorted his mental fragility, particularly in the run in to the final race when he took six wins from the final seven races.

However, he has once again broken up with his on-off girlfriend Nicole Scherzinger. If his mood is not positive then he can break, and Rosberg could infiltrate the positivity from 2014 and erode it with a few early victories. When the reliability problems struck Lewis in the early going last year, there were times when he seemed to be questioning if the team were treating each of their drivers fairly. That way, darkness leads. But I believe Lewis will carry on where he left off in 2014, and despite a stronger challenge from Rosberg, he'll claim a third title to match his hero Ayrton Senna. But, there's plenty to say otherwise.

Behind Mercedes comes a tight pack of Williams, Ferrari and Red Bull. Williams have the all important Mercedes power unit which has been improved. They also have Valtteri Bottas who is a likely future champion and is working methodically towards a first Grand Prix victory. Felipe Massa already has 11 of those from his time at Ferrari and on his day could well earn another one. Either one could grab a win should Mercedes falter.

Ferrari have made changes. A lot of changes. Their new chassis seems good, and the power unit has been improved greatly. The most obvious staff change is the hiring of Sebastian Vettel in place of Fernando Alonso. Kimi Raikkonen remains despite an atrocious 2014 campaign where he was soundly thrashed by Alonso. However, the new Ferrari has left Kimi smiling (which is odd), the car is much more suited to him and he should bounce back with a decent campaign. 

I think eyebrows were raised when Vettel was hired for the Scuderia despite it being known Ferrari had coveted Red Bull's prodigal son for some time. Here was a team letting go of Alonso and hiring Vettel, a driver who was in the process of being fairly beaten by Daniel Ricciardo. But all was not as it seemed for Vettel in 2014. He'd just come off the back of four consecutive seasons as world champion and was faced with a car that was not doing what he wanted it to do.

No one else had maximised the exhaust blown diffusers as well as Vettel that had been banned for 2014. It left him slightly at a loss as the back end of the car would no longer stick the way he wanted it to. The Renault power unit left a title challenge unachievable and Ricciardo had given him a hurry up that he couldn't respond to as he adapted to regulations he didn't like for a title he wouldn't win. It's little wonder his motivation waned a little.

In winter testing you could see the smile was back, he's excited by the new challenge of emulating his hero Michael Schumacher to take Ferrari back to the top. He'll be challenged by Kimi this year, but I can't see Vettel not winning this battle. He may even sneak a win given the right circumstances, but this is a rejuvenated driver, and over the coming years I expect Ferrari to get stronger, as there's not many who work as hard as Vettel to achieve success.

Red Bull are probably not feeling optimistic. Renault haven't made the strides they wanted them to, but yet another decent chassis and the promise of improvements for their power unit should see them comfortably battling for best of the rest, particularly as the season develops. They've hired Daniil Kvyat as Vettel's replacement. He's only had a year in F1 but he'll make a good impression but I don't expect him to outshine the star of 2014 Daniel Ricciardo.

Ricciardo was brilliant last season, taking apart his four time champion team mate to the extent that even before Vettel announced his departure it already appeared to be Daniel's team. I think we can expect more of the same and despite looking like they might be slightly adrift of Williams and Ferrari at the moment it would come as no surprise to see Ricciardo being the one to force a win if Mercedes have problems, or even if they don't. I just hope the wait for Renault improvements doesn't hold him back too much but I think he'll be fighting for podiums all year long.

Toro Rosso have looked fairly rapid in testing. They have the youngest driver line up on the grid with Max Verstappen at 17 and Carlos Sainz Jnr at 20 combining to make an age which is just two years older than Jenson Button.

Verstappen is the prodigy and throughout testing he's looked calm and assured. I expect some good results from him and some outstanding performances. Sainz has looked a little wilder, but I think both will have their day in the sun with Verstappen the one who will be keeping Kvyat on his toes.

Lotus look a lot better this season. The chassis is improved and the switch to Mercedes power should give them an immediate pace injection. Romain Grosjean will deliver them the points while Pastor Maldonado should be able to deliver debris and a few starring results.

Sauber looked too quick in testing, but it did reinforce the belief that Ferrari have made significant improvements to their power unit. Felipe Nasr and Marcus Ericsson have brought significant funds to the team but both are race winners in GP2 and are capable of delivering results. The Swiss team shouldn't suffer another pointless campaign as they did last season.

Force India didn't bring their new car out until there were just two and a half days of testing left. To their credit it ran reliably pretty much throughout clocking some significant mileage. They might be lingering towards the rear of the field at first but I think they'll soon get it all sorted out and be racing for points. Sergio Perez will likely spring a couple of surprise results as is his way, while Nico Hulkenberg will once again produce a decent season worthy of a top team taking a punt on him.

However, he's signed up for a Le Mans driver with Porsche this year and I can see him joining those ranks permanently at some point. I fear a career in a top car may well have slipped past him.

Marussia, or Manor, are back on the grid. They've adjusted their 2014 car to 2015 spec with a full 2015 car due out later in the season. It's a great story to have them back on the grid bringing the total number of cars up to an acceptable 20. With no testing and running a year old engine it'll be remarkable if they actually qualify for the race, but it's great to have them back anyway. Formula 1 needs these teams. So far they have signed Will Stevens who did a decent job for Caterham in a one off race at the last race in Abu Dhabi. Roberto Mehri will fill the other seat for now.

And then we have McLaren Honda. I'm not talking about them last because I think they'll be bringing up the rear of the grid in Australia, although it is a possibility, but because there's no real place to put them. They've shown terrible reliability, the Honda isn't running smoothly, and they only just beat the total mileage of Force India despite having nine and a half days more running. Or more accurately sitting around in the garage as mechanics tried to fix the numerous issues.

Red Bull were in a terrible state this time last year and went on to take three wins. The thing is the Honda hasn't run anywhere near full power, their car has been given a Red Bull make over thanks to the acquisition of Peter Prodromou from the fizzy drinks team. They have Fernando Alonso and Jenson Button as drivers. There is a lot going for this team. I believe once they're up and running properly they're either going to be terrible or potential Mercedes challengers. Significantly, despite the woes the team are said to be still quietly confident. Or maybe it's just blind optimism.

Of course it's not just on the technical front that there have been set backs. In the second test Alonso crashed leaving him with a concussion which has ruled him out of the opening race. Kevin Magnussen will step up hoping to show the team exactly why they should have kept him instead of Button.

The whole Alonso affair is steeped with conspiracy theories. It does seem odd about some of the information or lack of information that has come out about the accident, but I hope we'll see Alonso ready to go for the second round in Malaysia. Alonso is desperate to win another title and this is certainly not how he would have wanted to start his second stint at McLaren especially as Ferrari seem to have built a decent car again.

So Mercedes are out at the front, but with fairly stable regulations there's only so much more they can develop. I think the other teams will be coming for them towards the end of the season, but by then it'll be too late and we'll be celebrating a Mercedes driver as world champion. The question is which one?

all photos taken from autosport.com

Button to partner Alonso at McLaren Honda

Finally, the driver line up the world of Formula 1 has been waiting for, for what seems like months. It can now be confirmed that Fernando Alonso has returned to McLaren to continue his mission to win a third world title. Jenson Button has been given the nod to continue for another year, while Kevin Magnussen is retained as reserve driver.

It seems like Alonso is on a two year contract with optional clauses to get out if performance is poor, while Button is on a one year contract. I'm quite excited by this line up, I think Button will be able to hassle Alonso far more than Kimi has done this year, but it is going to be very tough for the Briton.

This year, Alonso has almost single handedly kept Ferrari ahead in the constructors championship. He's still driving better than ever. Button really stepped up when he was partnered against Lewis Hamilton, I expect exactly the same scenario here as they make the oldest line up in Formula 1.

Fernando has arrived on a big money deal, but I doubt they'll have retained Button if he was expecting to be given preferential treatment, so I expect them to be treated equally. That in itself could cause tension if Button is giving him a hard time. 

Equally Fernando's relationship with McLaren Group CEO Ron Dennis will come under scrutiny after Alonso's acrimonious departure from the team in 2007. After Button's long wait to be announced as 2015 race driver and the fact Dennis favoured Magnussen, I'm not sure either driver has the best relationship with the teams head. Interesting year ahead at McLaren as they also come to grips with dealing with new partner McLaren and integrating their new power unit.

Magnussen's position as reserve driver means he'll be looking to get back in the race seat by 2016, meaning if Button wants an extension of more than one year he's going to have to be on it. That's not even thinking about McLaren young driver Stoffel Vandoorne, currently plying his trade in GP2.

all photos taken from autosport.com

Drivers of the year Q2

We continue our drivers of the year with 17 down to 11. To read part one click here. And like the previous post we start with a Caterham driver...

17. Kamui Kobayashi (Caterham)

It's always difficult to tell drivers relative performances because of the car, in the end you have to make assumptions and compare them to their team mates. Kobayashi destroyed Ericsson after a year away from the sport. Despite driving for free to get back on the grid, he was flat out everywhere, even after Caterham started messing him around. It could have been him to get points in Monaco until he was barged out of the way by Jules Bianchi, which damaged his car. He couldn't have done too much more.

16. Kimi Raikkonen (Ferrari)

The Ferrari was terrible this year, of that there is no doubt but surely the intra-team battle would liven it up for Ferrari? Not a bit of it, the facts are Fernando Alonso scored 161 points, Kimi just 55. He was out of sorts all year, could never get the car to his liking and suffered terrible luck when he failed to get a clean weekend for most of the year. Reliability certainly wasn't his friend. But when you see the other car half a minute up the road, then you know that the car is capable of more, Kimi was unable to extract that potential. 

He had some starring moments, he should have had a podium in Monaco, beat Fernando in Belgium and raced hard with his team mate in Brazil. But that was it. I think he was fully motivated to do well, but he's not a driver able to drive round a problem in the mould of Alonso or Hamilton. Disappointing year, but at least Fernando left otherwise he'd be sitting without a drive albeit with a whole heap of money if Ferrari had paid him off. Again.

15. Jules Bianchi (Marussia)

Bianchi looked a bit sketchy at the start of the season, Chilton looked closer on pace but he soon sorted it out and began to impress once again. Dragged the Marussia as high as it could go, often being the lead of the Marussia/Caterham battle. 

One of the best moments of the season was when he crossed the line 9th to score the teams first world championship points in Monaco, which came from one of the best passes of the season when he threw his car up the inside of Kobayashi at La Rascasse. A bit of wheel banging and he was through. A 12th place in a wet British Grand Prix qualifying was equally impressive. Then in Japan came his accident causing severe head injuries which means he currently resides unconscious in a French hospital. A Ferrari academy driver, it was rumoured he could've been in the team next season. #ForzaJules

14. Romain Grosjean (Lotus)

A driver I rated well in the top ten last season doesn't just become my 14th rated pilot because he forgets how to drive. However a car which was often one of the top two vehicles on the track in 2013 but becomes one of the worst this year helps contribute to a fall in driver performance. 

For me Grosjean will be a Grand Prix winner given the equipment, he has learnt to be fast and consistent, long gone are the days of predicting the lap Grosjean might have a crash. But the car was not there for him this year despite two fantastic eighth places in Spain and Monaco.  

His fifth place qualifying at the Catalunya track has to be one of the laps of the season. But as the season went on and he suffered yet another failure of his Renault power unit, things got to him and he started making public his frustrations. With Mercedes power next year in his Lotus, we may see him able to exploit his talent properly.

13. Kevin Magnussen (McLaren)

Podium in your first race for McLaren, certainly not a bad way to start your Formula 1 career. Magnussen qualified brilliantly in Australia and took third place which became second after Daniel Ricciardo's disqualification. It was as impressive a debut as any, it looked like Button had a fight on his hands at McLaren. 

The season ended with Button out-qualifying Magnussen 10-9 and out scoring him 126-55. Magnussen was far better than those statistics make out, some of his Saturday afternoons were fantastic. However, you can't escape the fact he lost his way after the podium for several races and barely deserved a mention. But he came back fighting, his driving in Belgium and Italy, particularly his defence was extremely impressive, he suffered penalties but I think both were arguably unfair, it at least made people aware of him once again and brought a spark back to his driving. 

But still there were other times like in Japan, where he looked a little lost. Magnussen is young, quick and is only going to get better. He deserves another year but for now will have to settle for a reserve driver role at McLaren for 2015.

12. Jean-Eric Vergne (Toro Rosso)

Vergne isn't the best qualifier but he sure is a racer. 22 points, 14 more than his Red Bull bound team mate Daniil Kvyat managed to score. But Kvyat was in his rookie campaign and still managed to out qualify him over the year and the Russian could have scored a few more points if it weren't for problems. He pretty much matched Vergne in his debut year, he's only going to get better. 

That's Vergne's problem unfortunately, he almost matched Ricciardo, he was matched by a 20 year old rookie while Vergne was in his third year. Very good, but not quite good enough? Toro Rosso is meant to bring on talent so although Vergne would have been a good bench mark for either incoming Toro Rosso drivers, Max Verstappen or Carlos Sainz Jnr, he's had three years in the team, their aim is to breed drivers for Red Bull. They've not promoted him twice now, why would they do it a third time? 

It was a shame, after he thought he was being ousted by Verstappen he came alive in the last third of the season with a number of charging drives, particularly in Singapore. Vergne has got himself a seat in Formula E in that series next race in Uruguay this weekend but he's too good to not be in Formula 1 and deserves a chance with another team, however as other Toro Rosso rejects have found out, it isn't easy getting back in when you've been thrown out.

11. Sergio Perez (Force India)

I'm not sure Nico Hulkenberg thought Perez would be quite as up for the battle within Force India as he turned out to be. Perez took the teams only podium of the year in Bahrain and nearly scored another in Canada. He was still prone to the odd moment of over exuberance, but I was impressed by Perez this year. He scored in eleven races, further shaking off the tag he is just a driver for a few stand out drives while not bringing home the points in the rest. His comparison to Hulkenberg is favourable as Nico is highly rated, Perez was close and many times better over the season. The question is though, do people now think Perez is better or Hulkenberg worse?

Click on the link for the top 10 drivers of the year.
 
all photos taken from autosport.com

Hamilton clinches title in style

Lewis Hamilton is the 2014 world champion, taking it in style by winning the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. It was a calm assured performance, a true champion's drive. There was tension throughout the build up with both drivers looking nervous.

Lewis particularly seemed to just keep an icy stare and be unresponsive, his mind obviously focused on the race ahead. He was second on the grid to his title rival and team mate Nico Rosberg, but got the most perfect immaculate start he could have wished for, Rosberg bogged down slightly, Lewis was in the lead by the first corner.

There wasn’t a better time to be heading the pack, he had the control, he knew Nico needed to be in front to have a chance, but Lewis immediately got a gap and never looked to be under the kind of pressure that actually must have been weighing on him heavily. Through the first round of pit stops the status was maintained.

Lewis kept a gap of over two seconds, then the moment came when he must have allowed himself to relax. It’s fair to say Lewis has had the most reliability problems this year over qualifying and race time, but on lap 23 Rosberg went wide losing a second. Lap 25 the radio message came on air that he was losing power.

He’d lost all his Energy Recovery Power, that’s about 160hp leaving him a sitting duck on the straights. It only got worse as more problems afflicted him and he could do nothing about holding cars back, especially in the DRS zones. By lap 52 he’d dropped out of the points and team told him to pit the car.

It’s a measure of the man that Rosberg said he wanted to go to the end which he did, finishing down in 14^th place. Afterwards he admitted that perhaps the better driver had won this year, but that he’d work harder for 2015, he knows he needs to get better at wheel to wheel combat.

I’m tempted to say that this was his one chance for the title and Lewis will overwhelm him next year, but too many times people have written him off, against Michael Schumacher, against Lewis Hamilton. But he took the championship down to the last race, and I have no doubt he will already be focussing on 2015 and will be back stronger than ever. He has been a more than worthy opponent.

Hamilton though could not relax as Rosberg for a while hung on around fifth position, the place that would make him world champion should the 44 Mercedes retire. As Rosberg then slipped down the field, Lewis took his foot off the throttle a bit allowing Felipe Massa back into contention in the Williams.

As Hamilton pitted for the final time on lap 32 of 55, Massa now in the lead kept going until lap 44 switching to the much quicker super-soft tyre. He carved into Lewis’ 11 second lead, but Lewis reassured his team he was controlling the gap, pumping in the odd fastest lap as proof. But Massa kept on attacking and by the flag was just a couple of seconds behind.

In truth though Hamilton had this entire race in his grasp from the start, capping a brilliant season. He’s suffered reliability problems, he’s made mistakes, he’s been out of sorts in qualifying. No one expected Rosberg to get more pole positions than him but in the races he’s been supreme. 11 victories show just how much of a class act he’s been.

He’s attacked Rosberg for the lead several times over the year, passing his team mate with clinical precision and on the edge manoeuvres that  have shown just how much he wanted it this year.  There’s a case for other drivers to be crowned driver of the year, but with the pressure on him in the best car of the year, fighting a driver who was always there fighting, he didn’t crack. Even after Brazil where Rosberg held him off, it could have affected his game this weekend, but he was focused, and always reset his mind to come back stronger.

Ultimately though Hamilton is the fastest guy out there and quite possibly the best over taker in the business and he’s had ample opportunity to show it this year on a Sunday afternoon.  

Behind Lewis and Massa, Valtteri Bottas took third in the other Williams, fighting back brilliantly after dropping to eighth at the start. Both Red Bull’s had been disqualified from qualifying due to overly flexi front wings and had to start from the pit lane, but Daniel Ricciardo stormed through the field to finish fourth while in his final race for the team Sebastian Vettel could only manage eighth. A sad end to his Red Bull career, but he’ll look forward to reenergising himself at Ferrari next year, although from the sounds of it, that’s going to be full of difficulties.

Jenson Button in possibly his final driver for McLaren and in Formula 1 finished in fifth out-classing his team mate, scoring over double the points of Kevin Magnussen as well as out-qualifying him over the year. Magnussen could only trail in 11^th after a scrappy first lap. Button looked saddened at the end of the race and I think he deserves another year although Magnussen has put together a decent first year.

Nico Hulkenberg and Sergio Perez got Force India a double double points finish getting to the chequered flag in sixth and seventh after racing an alternate strategy to the majority of the field by running the super-soft tyres at the end. Hulkenberg was particularly impressive after suffering an unjust five second penalty for forcing Magnussen off the road.

Fernando Alonso in his last race for Ferrari finished ninth ahead of Kimi Raikkonen. A disappointing end to the season and to the Spaniard’s career with the Scuderia after what had promised championship success in 2010. That after five years they have managed only close second places can only be seen as failure on the teams part. Alonso looks set to go to McLaren, but his story seems to be rapidly moving to a career which he’ll see as unfulfilled.

Hamilton though is back on the up, thanks to a crushingly dominant car and some supreme driving. Today he showed his champion qualities to become Britain’s first multiple world champion since Jackie Stewart. This could be the start of a Hamilton era.

all photo's taken from autosport.com

The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Forecast

We've arrived at the final race of the season. The Abu Dhabi track is fast and wide for half of it with the second half having more of a street circuit feel, barriers lining the track quite closely at some points. Pirelli have brought the soft and super-soft tyres which should produce at least a two stop race. There are two DRS zones, one between turns 7 and 8 and the other between 10 and 11, which is more of a curve anyway. The weather as always here looks bright and hot, with temperatures around 30C.

Of course this is a twilight race, it starts in the light and finishes in the dark, so as the temperature lowers the cars could behave differently on their rubber so we could see some interesting strategies unfold.

Only two men can be crowned World Champion now we've reached the finale of the 2014 season. Mercedes team mates Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg have been fighting season long in their battle for supremacy, but it's not quite a winner takes all race.

What looks like a one season only affair with the rule likely to be dropped for next year, the final race of this year is worth double points. It is a quite stupid rule that was meant to make the championship battle last longer, but it's a rule hated by the fans, the F1 press and the drivers, although not Nico Rosberg at the moment, although he concedes he didn't like it at first.

Thankfully Rosberg lies just 17 points behind Hamilton, so even without double points the title fight would have gone to the wire anyway. But if it had been a normal season Hamilton would only have to finish sixth to clinch the title if Rosberg were to win but alas Formula 1 has a tendency to bring turmoil upon itself, only a result that is unaffected by double points will be considered uncontroversial.

I have no problem with either man winning the title despite the current win ratio of 10-5 in Hamilton's favour. Sometimes it pays to be consistent, so a Rosberg championship win would be more than worthy, but only if it is unaffected by double points in my opinion.

However, double points are what we have so here are the permutations for the championship showdown:

Hamilton wins the title if he finishes first or second. If Rosberg finishes second Hamilton must finish fifth or higher. If Rosberg finishes third then Hamilton must finish sixth or higher. If Rosberg finishes fourth then Hamilton must finish eighth or higher. Finally if Rosberg wins the title he can not finish lower than fifth and Hamilton must finish ninth or higher to stop him.

Both drivers will be praying their cars hold together, but the likelihood is that this will be a Mercedes 1-2 such has been their advantage this year. Hamilton would like to win it in style, but even over the course of this season you can see how his driving has matured so perhaps if there is no opportunity to make a move he will settle back for a calm drive to second.

Yes, I agree that's an unlikely scenario, he'll want to put one over on Rosberg one more time. It'll be tough though, Brazil showcased Rosberg at his best. He was the fastest throughout Friday and Saturday, and despite Lewis being quicker on race day, managed to hold him off to take a brilliant win. It gave him confidence and it'll be no surprise to see him win again this weekend. But Lewis is brilliant in Abu Dhabi and I can see him laying down a marker for this season, but also for next year when Mercedes are likely to be challenging for the title again.

Hamilton can see this is an opportunity to get another title, but to trounce Rosberg one more time this season could set the tone for an era of success with Mercedes provided he signs a contract beyond 2015. It takes a lot for Rosberg to be rattled, but he knows he's not as quick, and like Mark Webber before him against Sebastian Vettel, he might see this as his only opportunity to get a championship and we've already seen this season he can get a bit desperate.

There are plenty of other talking points surrounding Formula 1 at the moment, not least the debacle with the smaller teams of Formula 1. Talks will be on-going about how to resolve their financial situation and give a fairer deal to all the teams, but the big teams don't want to give up their monetary advantage and there's more and more a feeling that Formula 1 could be heading for a customer car scenario which I think will lead to more teams folding. The Super GP2 idea is absurd and should be written off already even if the grid numbers fall further.

Bernie Ecclestone's future should be up for debabte too. Unless he's playing a really clever game, which he has done before, then his comments regarding Formula 1's fan base mark him out as someone who should no longer be in control of the motor racing worlds premier series. He has said that the sport doesn't need to appeal to younger viewers, that it's the smaller teams own fault in regards to their financial situation and nothing to do with how uneven the money is shared out. This is someone operating a world away from reality.

Fernando Alonso was expected to be announced as a McLaren driver but that announcement has been put back to 1st December as they decide whether to take Jenson Button or Kevin Magnussen. It's appalling treatment of a world champion, Button deserves a lot better. We can now be certain that Vettel is off to Ferrari, the team confirmed today he is to join them on a three year deal. In other driver news, Romain Grosjean has signed to stay with Lotus for 2015 as they take receipt of Mercedes power units.

Back to the race though, with Mercedes likely to be heading the field Red Bull and Williams are likely to be the main challengers once again. Vettel has won here three times, but it's very unlikely he'll be able to do it again. It's his last race for Red Bull so he'd at least like a podium as a parting gift. Of course he'll have to outdo his team mate Daniel Ricciardo first which has proved a far tougher proposition than he probably thought at the start of the season.

Williams think they'll be strong here, strong enough to interrupt the Mercedes battle? Probably not, but it's one final try at getting a win that I think they deserve. McLaren have shown improved form recently, Button was an absolute star in Brazil, and if this is to be his last race in F1 then he'll want to go out in style.

Alonso is likely to be saying goodbye to Ferrari this weekend, he'll be dragging the most out the car as always but for some reason I have a feeling Kimi Raikkonen may get the better of him this time out ...

Sauber look likely to end the campaign with their first pointless season in their history. Having not retained either of their current drivers I doubt they're going to get 100% commitment from either this weekend.

Caterham let go over 200 employees this week but are re-joining the grid as they seek a buyer for the team. Kamui Kobayashi is driving while Roberto Merhi says he'll be driving the other car but this is all still to be confirmed. It brings the grid back up to 20 cars, but whether they'll still be around for 2015 is another matter entirely.

Some better news about Jules Bianchi too. Although still unconscious he is now out of a coma and has been flown back to France to the Le Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Nice. He is still however in a serious condition after suffering severe head injuries in the Japanese Grand Prix last month.

So, the finale is upon us and the tension is growing. In one sense it's about who will win the title, in another it's about the huge furore that will erupt should it be decided on double points. Only Formula 1 could potentially screw up a brilliant season. Let's hope it's a great way to end the year.

all photos taken from autosport.com

Rosberg beats Hamilton in Brazil

It was always going down to the wire in Abu Dhabi, but Nico Rosberg showed he is more than up for the fight with a brilliant win in Brazil. The expected rain didn't turn up but if anything that would have taken away from a fantastically tense Grand Prix where Lewis Hamilton hounded his team mate all the way to the flag, losing out by under a second.

Rosberg truly deserved his victory, he was quickest in every single session, and although it looked like he tensed up during the race, he remained under control to hold off a fierce challenge from the ever present Hamilton.

With the front row locked out by the Mercedes cars, they both got away well and led the early laps fairly comfortably. The soft tyre was blistering quickly and all those who started on them started pitting after only five laps. 

Rosberg and Hamilton maintained their positions, but got ever closer to each other as they fought their way through the traffic of those who started on the medium compound and were able to go longer in the first stint.

It was the second stops that very nearly swung the race Hamilton's way. Rosberg stopped on lap 26 and immediately Hamilton set a banzai fastest lap that brought him into contention for the win. He went for a second lap, but the grip was gone, turn four, the car snapped and Lewis went sliding into a half spin, the potential win was gone.

The team actually apologised to him for making him do one more lap, but it is arguable whether he'd have exited ahead of Rosberg but it would have been extremely close. As it was Hamilton came out seven seconds back, but closed and closed. Every lap the number 44 Mercedes became more threatening to Rosberg's lead, but he didn't put a wheel out of line.

Through the third stops and into the final 10 laps, Hamilton was there filling the mirrors of Rosberg, but this time there was to be no pass despite Hamilton always having the DRS. Rosberg withstood all the pressure and the win was his, probably his best win of the year by a long way.

So it's to Abu Dhabi and double points. Thank goodness in a way that Hamilton didn't win as if we were in a normal situation he'd have won the title. Even better that Rosberg didn't retire at the same time as then the gap would have been 49 points, almost two normal wins ahead, the outrage would have been immense.

As it is now, for the title to be unaffected by double points for Hamilton to win he need only finish second or win. For Rosberg to win without doubles points affecting the result he needs to win and have Hamilton finish seventh or lower. In reality because of double points for Rosberg to win, he only needs Hamilton to finish third or lower.

I only hope mechanical failures don't come into it and we get an unaffected double points win in the finale. You have to expect the two Mercedes cars to once again head the field in Abu Dhabi, so lets see them race and may the best driver win. Today Rosberg showed he can live with Hamilton, but it's going to be a tough result if Lewis is to lose this title now.

Felipe Massa gave his home race crowd a great result for Williams with third place despite doing as much as he could do squander the opportunity. He got a five second penalty for speeding in the pit lane and then tried to have his tyres changed in the McLaren pit box. He still showed strong pace throughout and deserved his podium. 

His team mate Valtteri Bottas finished up 10th after starting fourth and suffered an unfortunate result, nothing seemed to work right for him once his second pit stop meant he had to have his seat belts tightened and then at the next stop debris cleared from his wings after Nico Hulkenberg politely squeezed him off track and turn one.

Jenson Button was my star of the race. Left hanging by McLaren about a drive for next year, he produced a brilliant drive, chasing after the Williams cars in the opening stints in a McLaren which although improved is still a way off their pace. He held off challenges behind and just looked like a man who should be continuing in Formula 1 next year. 

I thought he might have grabbed a podium after Massa's penalty but strangely he seemed even further behind, still fourth was a fine result, while his team mate Kevin Magnussen was embroiled in battles that eventually dropped him to ninth after starting sixth. Both drivers deserve another season at McLaren but with the looming presence of Fernando Alonso that's highly unlikely. Having said that, the rumours of third cars for Ferrari and Red Bull might well shake up just who goes where again. If I were Ferrari I'd be grabbing Button immediately.

Sebastian Vettel was the lead Red Bull all weekend finishing fifth after utilising the undercut at the second pit stops and then chasing Button down to fight for fou.rth. It was a decent display after a tough first lap when he ran wide at turn four, but fought back brilliant. Daniel Ricciardo in the other Red Bull retired early on with a suspension failure while running behind, but with Ricciardo I think you begin to sense he's always going to make an attack at some point, so it's sad we didn't see that.

Sixth and Seventh was Alonso and Kimi Raikkonen. Alonso could have been in the hunt for fourth and fifth and might have expected a call from the team for Kimi to let him through, but as he's supposedly leaving that call was not forthcoming.

Kimi held him off brilliantly on over 30 lap old tyres as he was the only one to make a two stop strategy just about work. Alonso was always going to get through but it was nice to see Kimi show he's still got his fighting skills, and it was a great effort when a three stop strategy was probably the way forward.

Hulkenberg took eighth with a very fine drive after starting 12th. He went the opposite way on tyre strategy running medium three times before ending on the soft compound. A very good drive after some quieter races in the middle of the season.

Formula 1 was still discussing the future of how money is split while despite Marussia closing its door there are still rumours it could be bought. I don't want to see third cars for the top teams as fun as that may sound. As many other people have pointed out, running third cars will squeeze the back of the grid still further from top results, leaving them with less money. We'll end up with just a few makes maybe one day even just one manufacturer.

Formula 1 is about many teams competing to design their own cars, make them and get the best engineers, mechanics and drivers to race them to push each other to the limit. This formula should not be messed with. Bernie Ecclestone says $900million goes to the teams and the lower teams should spend their money more wisely. Well maybe he should split the money in a fairly way and not give so much to himself, FOM and CVC, the owners of Formula 1 and concentrate more on funding a sustainable sport with teams competing on an even level.

That argument will continue for a while yet, but what we should all concentrate on now is a thrilling title showdown in Abu Dhabi one which hopefully will result in a world champion unaffected by double points. 

#ForzaJules

all photo's taken from autosport.com

The Singapore Grand Prix Forecast

Singapore holds the original night race and the longest race of the year at a time of nearly two hours. As the teams and drivers try to stay on European time its energy sapping track and temperature makes this an event when the drivers know they’ve had to work hard all afternoon, well night.

It’s a long circuit with 23 corners and not much time to take a breather. It has several big stops and in general a lot of them so it means brakes take a pounding. Mercedes have had several issues with brakes this year so watch out for them.

There are two DRS zones, one on the start finish straight and one between turns 5 and 7 which includes the anonymous turn 6. Pirelli are bringing their soft and super soft tyres although the forecast is high temperatures approaching 30C and rain is in the air. Rain is often predicted for this event but never seems to materialise during the race, could this be the year? It would certainly throw up an interesting variable under the lights.

It would also increase the likelihood of a safety car at a track which generally has a high probability of one, a track surrounded by concrete walls is always going to attract incidents, just ask Daniel Ricciardo who offended the walls last year when he drove for Toro Rosso. One more thing to add about this race is the banning of team radio regarding messages that help the drivers drive. All assistance about brake bias, where a rival is quicker (particularly your team mate) what sector or corner you could be doing better at is banned while driving the car. It’s going to be interesting to see how this is policed, if and when the teams get round it and will it affect any of the drivers?

So we’re on to round 14, five to go after this one and the Mercedes battle for the title continues as tensions continue to rise inside the team. Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg can often be heard asking for advice from the team. Will the radio ban hurt one of them more than the other?

I read something interesting on autosport.com where their technical writer and former Jordan technical director Gary Anderson said that Rosberg would likely have done his homework whereas Lewis might be a bit lost despite his natural talent being the greater and so able to drive round problems. I’m looking forward to seeing how this plays out.

As for the track I think Rosberg could well have the edge this weekend. He’s always been fast around Singapore and potentially should have won the race for Williams several years ago. Hamilton has won before but was slower than Rosberg last year, so it could be advantage Nico? That of course doesn’t take into account the psychological blow Lewis dealt out in Italy?

He controlled that weekend, getting a brilliant pole position and pressuring Rosberg into a mistake as he recovered from a software afflicted start to challenge his team mate for the lead. It was one of his most accomplished performances of the year and Nico looked a little bit rattled by it. But he can recover. There’s a lot of things to hit around the Marina Bay street circuit, not a lot of run off, I’m sure their Mercedes team are going to be on edge throughout, especially when the lights go out.

I think we could be seeing a challenge though which might not have the Silver Arrow squad getting everything their own way. I think Williams will have to concede their main challenger position to Red Bull this race. They always go well here and Sebastian Vettel utterly dominated last year. He’s got a brand new chassis this weekend as the team try to get him the improved race pace that he’s found in qualifying.

It’s an interesting competition between Vettel and Ricciardo. Ricciardo has pretty much got best of the rest position sewn up but Vettel will be desperate to at least get a win. He’s been out-qualifying Ricciardo more often than not in recent races but still getting beaten when it matters. It’s obvious the car is not suiting Vettel at all, but he is making progress and he’ll be determined to finally beat Ricciardo.

With engine power not being a main feature, Red Bull’s deficit suddenly becomes a lot less. Their chassis is at least second best if not the best so will work well around here. I think they can be challengers and possibly get in the way of the Mercedes title battle. If Vettel can’t be the lead Red Bull though, then I’m not sure he’ll ever be, at least for this year.

Williams and Ferrari are locked in battle for third in the constructors. I think they’ll both be fighting for a high of fifth this weekend. After the dismal Italian Grand Prix suffered by Ferrari, Luca di Montezemolo resigned as chairman of Ferrari. He is to be replaced by Sergio Marchionne, Fiat’s CEO. Ferrari are in a crisis, after their super team of the Schumacher era was broken up he promoted from within and the Italian blame culture arose once more to such an extent that it really has only been Fernando Alonso who has made them look even vaguely respectable.

Even he has been at pains to deliver podiums this year. Team Boss Marco Mattiacci has recognised this and is making changes, but it can’t help them this year and might not be much help for next either which might lose them their most prized asset, Alonso. Anyway, Singapore might be better for Ferrari as power isn’t everything here. With the stop start nature of the track fuel consumption might be an issue, which means Ferrari will be in trouble. If it’s not one thing it’s another for the Scuderia.

Despite Williams not having the best downforce they’ve made a lot of progress over the year and are still bringing updates. Valtteri Bottas is a driver that will get you the maximum result while Felipe Massa should have been a winner here in 2008 and will be buoyed by his Italian podium, so look out for the Williams cars, they could spring a surprise.

McLaren will hope that Kevin Magnussen keeps up his recent good performances, but this time not attract a penalty. It’s a bit tight around here to be squeezing too many drivers off the track. Jenson Button will be looking to beat Magnussen on the road this time rather than relying on a penalty to get ahead.

Force India have looked off the pace recently, bizarrely this has let Sergio Perez rise up to prominence in the team while Nico Hulkenberg, the once superstar of the future has looked strangely off the pace. Hulkenberg needs to rectify this if his start is not to wane.

Daniil Kvyat was brilliant in Italy and I’m sure he’ll hustle the car this weekend to get near the top 10 and maybe sneak a point if his rookie status doesn’t let the walls take a bite out of him. Jean-Eric Vergne needs to start lighting up the time sheets soon if he’s to maintain his Formula 1 career.

Sauber and Lotus, well I can’t see them progressing much here. Even when other teams power advantage may be negated, when you’re missing huge chunks of downforce you’re not going to do much in Singapore. They’ll be hoping for a safety car to mix things up. Caterham have kept on Kamui Kobayashi once again as they battle with the Marussia’s.

So if I were to predict a winner? For the championship, you have to hope it’s a Hamilton win but I’ve got a feeling Rosberg may have the edge this weekend. As an outside bet, go with Vettel. It’s going to be a hot, long race under the lights of Singapore. Who does win could be crucial to this year’s title battle.

all photos taken from autosport.com