The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Forecast

We've arrived at the final race of the season. The Abu Dhabi track is fast and wide for half of it with the second half having more of a street circuit feel, barriers lining the track quite closely at some points. Pirelli have brought the soft and super-soft tyres which should produce at least a two stop race. There are two DRS zones, one between turns 7 and 8 and the other between 10 and 11, which is more of a curve anyway. The weather as always here looks bright and hot, with temperatures around 30C.

Of course this is a twilight race, it starts in the light and finishes in the dark, so as the temperature lowers the cars could behave differently on their rubber so we could see some interesting strategies unfold.

Only two men can be crowned World Champion now we've reached the finale of the 2014 season. Mercedes team mates Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg have been fighting season long in their battle for supremacy, but it's not quite a winner takes all race.

What looks like a one season only affair with the rule likely to be dropped for next year, the final race of this year is worth double points. It is a quite stupid rule that was meant to make the championship battle last longer, but it's a rule hated by the fans, the F1 press and the drivers, although not Nico Rosberg at the moment, although he concedes he didn't like it at first.

Thankfully Rosberg lies just 17 points behind Hamilton, so even without double points the title fight would have gone to the wire anyway. But if it had been a normal season Hamilton would only have to finish sixth to clinch the title if Rosberg were to win but alas Formula 1 has a tendency to bring turmoil upon itself, only a result that is unaffected by double points will be considered uncontroversial.

I have no problem with either man winning the title despite the current win ratio of 10-5 in Hamilton's favour. Sometimes it pays to be consistent, so a Rosberg championship win would be more than worthy, but only if it is unaffected by double points in my opinion.

However, double points are what we have so here are the permutations for the championship showdown:

Hamilton wins the title if he finishes first or second. If Rosberg finishes second Hamilton must finish fifth or higher. If Rosberg finishes third then Hamilton must finish sixth or higher. If Rosberg finishes fourth then Hamilton must finish eighth or higher. Finally if Rosberg wins the title he can not finish lower than fifth and Hamilton must finish ninth or higher to stop him.

Both drivers will be praying their cars hold together, but the likelihood is that this will be a Mercedes 1-2 such has been their advantage this year. Hamilton would like to win it in style, but even over the course of this season you can see how his driving has matured so perhaps if there is no opportunity to make a move he will settle back for a calm drive to second.

Yes, I agree that's an unlikely scenario, he'll want to put one over on Rosberg one more time. It'll be tough though, Brazil showcased Rosberg at his best. He was the fastest throughout Friday and Saturday, and despite Lewis being quicker on race day, managed to hold him off to take a brilliant win. It gave him confidence and it'll be no surprise to see him win again this weekend. But Lewis is brilliant in Abu Dhabi and I can see him laying down a marker for this season, but also for next year when Mercedes are likely to be challenging for the title again.

Hamilton can see this is an opportunity to get another title, but to trounce Rosberg one more time this season could set the tone for an era of success with Mercedes provided he signs a contract beyond 2015. It takes a lot for Rosberg to be rattled, but he knows he's not as quick, and like Mark Webber before him against Sebastian Vettel, he might see this as his only opportunity to get a championship and we've already seen this season he can get a bit desperate.

There are plenty of other talking points surrounding Formula 1 at the moment, not least the debacle with the smaller teams of Formula 1. Talks will be on-going about how to resolve their financial situation and give a fairer deal to all the teams, but the big teams don't want to give up their monetary advantage and there's more and more a feeling that Formula 1 could be heading for a customer car scenario which I think will lead to more teams folding. The Super GP2 idea is absurd and should be written off already even if the grid numbers fall further.

Bernie Ecclestone's future should be up for debabte too. Unless he's playing a really clever game, which he has done before, then his comments regarding Formula 1's fan base mark him out as someone who should no longer be in control of the motor racing worlds premier series. He has said that the sport doesn't need to appeal to younger viewers, that it's the smaller teams own fault in regards to their financial situation and nothing to do with how uneven the money is shared out. This is someone operating a world away from reality.

Fernando Alonso was expected to be announced as a McLaren driver but that announcement has been put back to 1st December as they decide whether to take Jenson Button or Kevin Magnussen. It's appalling treatment of a world champion, Button deserves a lot better. We can now be certain that Vettel is off to Ferrari, the team confirmed today he is to join them on a three year deal. In other driver news, Romain Grosjean has signed to stay with Lotus for 2015 as they take receipt of Mercedes power units.

Back to the race though, with Mercedes likely to be heading the field Red Bull and Williams are likely to be the main challengers once again. Vettel has won here three times, but it's very unlikely he'll be able to do it again. It's his last race for Red Bull so he'd at least like a podium as a parting gift. Of course he'll have to outdo his team mate Daniel Ricciardo first which has proved a far tougher proposition than he probably thought at the start of the season.

Williams think they'll be strong here, strong enough to interrupt the Mercedes battle? Probably not, but it's one final try at getting a win that I think they deserve. McLaren have shown improved form recently, Button was an absolute star in Brazil, and if this is to be his last race in F1 then he'll want to go out in style.

Alonso is likely to be saying goodbye to Ferrari this weekend, he'll be dragging the most out the car as always but for some reason I have a feeling Kimi Raikkonen may get the better of him this time out ...

Sauber look likely to end the campaign with their first pointless season in their history. Having not retained either of their current drivers I doubt they're going to get 100% commitment from either this weekend.

Caterham let go over 200 employees this week but are re-joining the grid as they seek a buyer for the team. Kamui Kobayashi is driving while Roberto Merhi says he'll be driving the other car but this is all still to be confirmed. It brings the grid back up to 20 cars, but whether they'll still be around for 2015 is another matter entirely.

Some better news about Jules Bianchi too. Although still unconscious he is now out of a coma and has been flown back to France to the Le Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Nice. He is still however in a serious condition after suffering severe head injuries in the Japanese Grand Prix last month.

So, the finale is upon us and the tension is growing. In one sense it's about who will win the title, in another it's about the huge furore that will erupt should it be decided on double points. Only Formula 1 could potentially screw up a brilliant season. Let's hope it's a great way to end the year.

all photos taken from autosport.com