Belgian Grand Prix preview

The break is over and Formula 1 is back to continue the show at the fantastic Spa-Francorchamp circuit in Belgium. The few races before the break saw an order beginning to form, or at least a more consistent establishment of teams challenging for the podiums; Red Bull, McLaren, Lotus and Ferrari are our contenders as we begin the run in to the finale.

The weather forecast at the time of writing is mainly of rain on the official F1 site, but cold and dry on the BBC site. This is no great surprise for Spa, it’s always a bit of a mix there but if and when it rains and how much of it could decide the outcome of the race. I would make a confident prediction, but despite the big teams beginning to stretch their legs ahead of the plucky midfield challengers, that old chestnut of tyres is likely to prove decisive.

Let’s lay down the general basics of what we know about the top four teams and those balls of rubber. Lotus seem to like hotter temperatures and are ok in the rain. McLaren like cooler temperatures and are good in slippery conditions but if it rains hard they can’t maintain their tyre temperatures.

Red Bull have been pretty much on the pace everywhere, but some places they’ve been that bit more on the pace than others. Ferrari seem to have a wide operating band in all conditions, at least with Fernando Alonso at the wheel.

So what does that tell us? Not much, because we’ve not had a completely wet race this year on these tyres and on full fuel loads. In Malaysia we had a race of mixed conditions in which Sauber and Perez starred but Ferrari and Alonso won. Alonso also took pole position in appalling conditions at both Silverstone and Hockenheim; logical conclusion? Alonso wants it to rain this weekend.

Otherwise I think he could be in for one of his damage limitation weekends as I just don’t see them having clawed back the down force over the break they still need to be right at the front at a place like Spa. McLaren with Lewis Hamilton and Jenson Button could be a force if it remains cooler but dry. McLaren definitely made a step forward before the break and Lewis will want to use Spa to kickstart his challenge for the title, but as I said if it rains hard they could struggle.

The sweeping corners of Spa should fit perfectly with Red Bull, I can see Sebastian Vettel getting on pole here in dry conditions; he was utterly brilliant last year and desperately needs a win. Remember he had a slight wobble coming up to last years break and hadn’t won for a few races, he came here and blew them all a way. If he can do that, his championship charge will ignite.

Mark Webber too is pretty good in Belgium, his pass of Alonso around the outside into Eau Rouge was jaw dropping. 

I think Lotus are in for good times over the coming weeks. Kimi Raikkonen is their main title challenger despite no win yet, Romain Grosjean hasn’t quite got the consistency of Kimi, but he’s certainly not lacking for pace and either one could take a win especially if their new passive F-duct/double DRS works which should enable them to stall the rear wing even without DRS, definitely a benefit during the race. Belgium and the next race in Italy should be ideal for such a technology.

Kimi is a master around Spa whatever the weather, if Lotus have managed to sort out their qualifying issues and he can get up near the front there’s no reason why the win they should have had ages ago can’t finally arrive.

If the race is mixed conditions look out for the Sauber’s. Their car seems to be especially capable in using the tyres in those conditions and would be a good outside choice for victory if all the stars align especially with Perez.

Williams continued their good form in Hungary with both cars qualifying in the top 10. Bruno Senna was quick last year in the Renault, and if Pastor Maldonado doesn’t crash into anyone, they’ll be hovering around the top 10.

Force India will be looking to stay with them, the only midfield team not to have a truly impressive result, at Spa though anything can happen. Nico Hulkenberg has certainly proved before that he’s good in mixed conditions and Paul di Resta too can generally handle anything.

Mercedes have struggled of late. Michael Schumacher has kind of deflected it a little bit in qualifying with two thirds in recent meetings, but come the race they just can’t keep up with the leaders as they still don’t have a handle on how to use the tyres consistently.

Schumacher is generally brilliant around Spa, he put in a great drive last year to charge from last to fifth to celebrate the 20^th anniversary of his debut race. This time round he’s knocking up 300 Grand Prix, so watch out for him to put in a decent performance especially if it rains.

It's still difficult to predict anything for sure this season, but here are a few options for whatever the weather. If it’s hot, Kimi; if it’s cool and dry Lewis or Vettel; if it rains Alonso; if it’s mixed conditions Perez or Schumacher. I think the bases are pretty much covered there but trying to predict anything with these tyres is still very random.

But Formula 1 2012 is unpredictable and after five long weeks away it’s finally time to get back on the track and see who looks likely to be king; let’s get racing.

all photo's from autosport.com