Nine to go; who can beat Alonso?

Finally after nearly five weeks the Formula 1 summer break is almost over. There are just a few days until battle recommences for the five drivers still in with a realistic shot at the title and what a place to start at; one of the most exhilarating tracks in the sport; Spa-Francorchamps in Belgium.

Truth be told the teams and maybe even viewers needed a break before 12 weeks of Formula 1 overload with 9 race weekends scheduled until the end of the season.  It’ll hardly seem like there’s a break worth mentioning with the relentless onslaught of races taking us to a championship showdown on November 25^th in Brazil.

That is of course if there is a showdown at all. Currently Fernando Alonso leads the pack by 40 points, that’s over a race win ahead of the chasers. If he can maintain the consistency we’ve seen from him so far and grab another opportunistic win or two, then there’s plenty to say that the party will be over a little sooner than expected despite the previous unpredictability of the 2012 season.

Alonso has performed better than we’ve ever seen him but as Mark Hughes in the latest edition of Autosport pointed out the Ferrari has a much larger operating window with the tyres than other teams come rain or shine, hot or cold, and since the fifth round in Spain have largely been hovering near the front. Of course it’s not as simple as that at all; the Ferrari still isn’t the quickest car, it’s a lot better than it was at the beginning of the year, but a world beater it certainly isn’t. McLaren, Lotus and Red Bull pre break were all quicker at the last race in Hungary. Development is still needed.

We also have the fact that Alonso has moulded Ferrari into a Schumacher style squad. He is now a clear number 1, probably has been for some time. The focus is almost entirely on him, Felipe Massa, if he ever gets ahead will not be there for long as the radio crackles into life. Ferrari now live and breathe Alonso’s title assault.

Massa had been getting on Alonso’s pace in recent races, he’ll need to maintain that if he wants to keep a drive for next year and more importantly for Ferrari, to enable him to knick points off the Spaniard’s nearest rivals. It’s definitely not a situation where it’s Alonso’s title to lose, but …

Leading the charge are the Red Bull’s of Mark Webber and Sebastian Vettel. I’ve got a strange feeling about Red Bull, mostly they’ve been one of the quickest cars on the track, but for some reason I just don’t see them mounting a sustained title charge. By that I don’t mean they’ll not be there at the end, I just don’t think it’ll be quite enough.

With Webber once again challenging Vettel, there is currently no consistent leader of the team. They’ll both continue to be up there fighting for the big points, but world champions? I don’t think so, unless you’re talking about the constructors title, in which case I think that is a done deal for them.

Webber has shown 2010 form again when he challenged for the title all the way up to the last race, now the blown diffusers are supposedly outlawed the car has suited him. However, the evidence from the last couple of races isn’t exactly encouraging accruing just two eighth places.

Vettel has on occasion looked frustrated. When the car hasn’t been bang on the pace he hasn’t been able to produce the form we became used to last year. However when it does go right, he’s capable of perhaps more than anyone else, just look at the way he was dominating Valencia before an alternator failure robbed him of victory.

Red Bull have been pushing the regulations this year, and they’ll continue to push them, so far they’ve not done anything wrong enough to be disqualified so I won’t be surprised to see them dominate a few races, but this season is too mixed up for them to go on a roll and what with two drivers up there, something I don’t see changing, I think Vettel’s time as champion is up, at least for now but I think he'll put up a strong fight all the same. 

Lewis Hamilton currently lies 47 points behind Alonso, and just 7 from Webber in 2^nd. It’s not gone swimmingly for Lewis by any means, but if I was going to pick one driver who will certainly give Ferrari a run for their money it would be him.

Hamilton had huge issues last year, but he got his head together and set upon a plan of attack and by and large has stuck to it. The aim of the game has been consistency, and despite being only fourth in the standings he has been second only to Alonso in the way he has driven.

Pit stop problems, tyre issues and Pastor Maldonado’s poorly timed move in Valencia have given an artificial result to just how well Lewis has been doing.

McLaren’s updates in Germany have pushed them back into the frame with one of the quickest cars, while the win in Hungary should have given them impetus to continue down the same route with their development of the car and they’ve always been good at that.

Button still thinks he has a chance at the title too, but let’s face it, he doesn’t. With over half the season gone it’s time for McLaren to give Lewis the helping hand he might just need. It’s all well and good letting them fight if the drivers are equally paced and have similar points totals like Red Bull, but by this stage of the season McLaren emphatically do not have that.

Button’s form suffered after the first few races but he’s had a resurgence recently and could be put to good use. McLaren should use him for the good of the team. Lewis is their chance, they should take it.

Kimi Raikkonen is the dark horse of the title race. He sits just one point back from Hamilton with perhaps the most consistently front running car of the season despite the lack of a win. I think that’s all about to change though in the next couple of races.

That’s not to say it’ll be Kimi doing the winning, but if they want a title shot it should be. Romain Grosjean has been mighty in qualifying, leading the Finn 8-3, but he’s lacked a little consistency in the races but when he’s been on it he’s looked as good a bet as Kimi to take their first victory.

However, the points margin between them is just one different to that of Lewis and Jenson, so you’ve got to again ask whether or not it would be in their interests to start supporting Kimi.

More importantly though, their car has maintained a front running pace pretty much throughout the season so far. Their most recent development which they’ve been testing at the last few races helps to stall the rear wing like a Mercedes double DRS to increase straight line speed. However this works without the DRS needing to be open, like a passive f-duct with no driver contribution so legal, the next two fast tracks could prove to be decisive for their title tilt.

If all works as expected they could be on a charge to the top and I’ve no doubt Kimi will step up further given half a chance to take the title, it’s not out of the realms of possibility.

With teams such as Mercedes, Sauber, Williams and Force India all still eager to make cameo’s near the front this is going to be an intense road to the finale with plenty of ups and downs for all but who will be the winner you ask? I think it’s between Kimi and Lewis as to just who will end up second behind Alonso.

all photo's from autosport.com