The Hungary Forecast

Scorching, sizzling, boiling, searing are just some of the adjectives to describe the current 36C temperatures that will welcome the Formula 1 fraternity to Budapest for the Hungarian Grand Prix. Hot sums up it up.

And that’s before the drivers put on their thick fireproof gear, pull on their balaclava, squeeze into their crash helmet and climb into the tight confines of a 200mph Formula 1 machine with just around a litre and a half drinks bag to help them through the 70 laps of the Hungaroring.

This track has no real chance to relax either with no long straights and constant corner after corner, it’s often described as Monaco without the walls. Therefore it’s going to be tough to pass, although it can be done and this year they’ve helped out a bit more with two DRS zones. One will be on the start finish straight with the other a short run from turn one to two. Strategy options will also be affected by the reduced pit lane speed limit from 100kph to 80kph due to the tyre hitting cameraman incident in Germany.

Of course the main talking point will be? Yes, Pirelli’s tyres. They've brought the medium and soft compounds but with a whole new construction. After the tyre blow outs at Silverstone something had to be done so in between Germany and Hungary we had the young driver test taking place at Silverstone which Pirelli provided the new tyres to be used for the rest of the season. All teams apart from the banned Mercedes squad took part in trying them out; Pirelli say they are confident they will be fully functioning inflated balls of rubber. Or words to that effect.

The main alterations over the tyres the teams have been using so far this year are that they’re switching the construction to the 2012 tyre whereby the steel belt running round the tyre has gone back to Kevlar and there is a tougher join to the sidewall. The 2013 compounds will still be used, but the result of this should mean the tyres are longer lasting meaning the drivers can drive more to the limit without having to almost immediately think about looking after the tyres once the race has started.

This at first glance plays into the hands of Red Bull and Mercedes, teams which had campaigned that the 2013 tyres degraded too fast. With the tyres lasting longer it should allow them to exploit their cars potential far more than they’ve been able to thus far. Of course despite receiving the data from the test Mercedes will be at a crucial disadvantage at getting the best out of the tyres immediately.

On the other hand it isn’t all doom and gloom for the teams which used the tyres best like Ferrari, Lotus and Force India. With the tyres lasting longer and their cars able still gentle on them, it will enable them to perhaps go for alternative strategies. One put forward in a James Allen analysis is that they will be able to use the softer option tyres for longer periods of the race, which generally will have a speed advantage over whatever harder compound they’ve brought something teams like Red Bull might not be able to do as they use the tyres more aggressively.

It’s not going to be all Red Bull’s way. Having said that who do I expect to win this weekend? Well I think Sebastian Vettel was the clever one in regards to the title challengers. He tested the tyres at the test whereas Fernando Alonso and Kimi Raikkonen didn’t attend so he’ll have a working knowledge of the new Pirelli’s. I think Vettel is on for pole position and the race win. It would be his first time winning in Hungary, but he’s already had a few firsts this month; first win in July and first German Grand Prix win. Vettel is driving better than anyone else and I don’t see how you could tip someone ahead of him.

Of course that’s not to say there won’t be others in contention for the victory. Vettel’s team mate Mark Webber has won here before, he’ll be a contender again and if he can get away at the start like he did in Germany he’ll be a podium challenger at least.

I’m not sure what to think about Ferrari, they’ve dropped way off the pace in qualifying which isn’t such a surprise but they’re not coming back in the race quite as strongly as they once did. If the same thing happens in Hungary I can see Fernando Alonso’s championship charge shuddering to a halt. He needs to make points on Vettel before the four week summer break.

The most likely contenders to Red Bull will surely be Lotus. Kimi and Romain Grosjean finished second and third respectively last year and I have an unqualified hunch that they’ll be good again this year. They certainly seem to be reacting nicely to hotter temperatures, and Hungary is going to be the hottest race since Bahrain where they finished second and third again.

Both the Lotus drivers are contenders for the podium but for the championship you’d ideally want Kimi to be ahead of Grosjean. That won’t necessarily be easy for Kimi though (apart from when the team tell Romain to move over), Grosjean showed great form last time out and if he wants to keep his seat he’ll have to consistently do that. Kimi maybe third in the points but this weekend he comes into the race as the strongest challenger to Vettel, a definite win chaser.

Mercedes could struggle this weekend. They’ve been affected by some of the tyre restrictions put in place such as swapping the tyres on to opposite sides of the car. Team principal Ross Brawn said this was partly to blame for their tyre woes in Germany after having looked strong for the past few races.

Couple that with the lack of testing the new tyres and they’re definitely on the back foot. Having said that Lewis Hamilton can drag a car to positions it really ought not to be, so Lewis for pole? Not that unlikely I reckon, it’s the race they’re really going to be worrying about. It’s going to be a tough time for Nico Rosberg and Hamilton on the Sunday.

Other quick predictions:

Toro Rosso are definitely the midfields form team, they should be on for Q3 and points. Daniel Ricciardo had a test with Red Bull last week, if he wants to help his cause for the 2014 vacancy he’ll need to continue his good form here. Cue team mate Jean-Eric Vergne having a stellar weekend.

McLaren showed at Silverstone they have a superb young driver called Kevin Magnussen who set the fast time on the first day of the test while being brilliantly consistent. Of course he could well be the future, at the moment Jenson Button and Sergio Perez are stuck with what they’ve got, which is not a lot. Maybe some fighting points, as they did look stronger in Germany with the first stage of the tyre alterations; perhaps this tyre change is just what McLaren need to help get them further up the grid.

I’m ditching my continued prediction of a Force India podium, but I do expect them to return to fighting for points, but having said that McLaren and Toro Rosso are edging them at the moment. If they don’t then the tyre changes will have hurt them the most.

While Sauber cosy up to Russian money and a way too young 17 year old potential 2014 driver Sergey Sorotkin, Nico Hulkenberg will be driving out of his skin for the rest of the year to try and get out of there. He’s had some good races and I think this is just the kind of track where Hulk can hustle the car in to the points.

Williams, Caterham and Marussia all to fail to score. It’s sad to lump Williams in with the bottom 2 teams but unfortunately they’re still yet to score. I am going to say Valtteri Bottas will out do Pastor Maldonado this weekend though.

Formula 1 is in for a big weekend, the tyres are unraced, the temperatures are high; how much will the order be mixed up if at all? Only a few days to find out.

all photo's taken from autosport.com