The German Forecast

After the madness of Silverstone where there were no less than 6 tyre issues with many more potential ones the German Grand Prix takes on added significance as the tyre saga goes on. Pirelli have announced major changes, going back to a Kevlar belt construction with the same 2013 compounds that were tested in Canada; the full changes for this weekend and ahead can be found here.

The Canadian tyres were vetoed for use by Ferrari, Lotus and Force India; three teams which have the best tyre usage. In short what these changes mean will potentially shape the title battle from favouring Ferrari and Lotus, to favouring Red Bull and Mercedes as Pirelli will go for more conservative compounds rather than their aggressive approach from earlier in the year.

The fact Red Bull are leading both championships is testament to how well they’ve performed this season and if Mercedes to turn out to be the main challengers, then Red Bull already have a significant head start.

I fear that a title challenge for Kimi Raikkonen is going to fade away. Lotus already look to have fallen off the pace somewhat even if they were unfortunate not to finish second at Silverstone. Kimi can console himself with the likely possibility of a Red Bull drive next year, but 2013 is where it’s at and he’s never happy unless he’s on the top step.

However it’s possibly even more hurt for Fernando Alonso as he looks at going yet another year without a third crown; Ferrari too have faded over the last few races and these changes to the tyres will not help them.

They are being made for the right reasons in regards to safety but the fact the tyre situation was ever allowed to get so bad though is outrageous when you are discussing the highest tier of motor sport.

But this article is not to discuss the consequences of the tyres; I’ll do that in the next few days. This is to list several predictions for the weekend ahead. First of all as always I’ve taken a quick look at the weather and even though it’s raining on Friday, Saturday and Sunday look clear and warm although this is the Nurburgring where the weather can change almost as quickly as Spa.

I’m going with a Mercedes on pole position and I’m thinking it’s going to be Lewis Hamilton again. He had the pace last weekend and seems to be getting used to the car more. I think he’s about to hit a rich vein of form and he won’t like Rosberg heading him on poles and more important wins.

But it is Nico’s home race so I expect him to be strong just like he has been all year. It’s going to be a good scrap between the team mates to see who will head the all silver front row I’m expecting.

However, if it is a straightforward dry race, despite the impressive opening stint from Hamilton at Silverstone I still feel Red Bull have the edge. I said they’d win last weekend and I’m sticking with it for the German race.

Mark Webber goes well at the Nurburgring, he scored his first victory here in 2009 in a very impressive drive. If he can continue his great form from Silverstone he has every chance. On the condition that he gets away from the line.

Sebastian Vettel might have retired last weekend but he was leading and comfortably ahead of his closest rivals. In fact I think he’ll be beginning to look more towards his Silver rivals who still linger off the points pace but are fast closing. Vettel will be on it this weekend, he’s never won his home race and he’ll be looking to put that right. I think this year is the strongest he’s been and he’s only getting stronger.

Kimi and Alonso, well I just think they’ll qualify somewhere in the top 10 and they might get a podium. I’m beginning to wonder if that’s even possible such is their loss of performance and the tyre issues. However, talk of their demise is far too early, these are the kind of drivers who always come back and are in teams that know how to win.

Alonso and Ferrari especially are not going to quit on this. They came back with a worse car in 2012, but it says something that they trail with a better car this year. Alonso won two of the last three German races, but they were at Hockenheim, it could be a struggle for him this weekend especially with the tyres.

A few quick predictions here; I still believe Force India will get a podium, it could be here. The tyre situation will also affect them significantly too like Ferrari and Lotus. I hope they haven’t missed their opportunity, but they look like they have inherent pace in their car too. It’s not just a tyre thing but it did help. Adrian Sutil would like to be the one to get it here, but I think Paul di Resta is the more likely if he can finally get a decent qualifying again.

Toro Rosso look to have risen to be their closest challengers and I think they’ll get another Q3 and more points.

Williams nearly got a point at Silverstone but they won’t at Nurburgring if all goes normally. Nico Hulkenberg for Sauber has dragged a few results out of their car but both teams have really struggled this year after showing so much promise in 2013.

If the weather does become a factor there is potential for a safety car although generally I expect the race to go off without a hitch in regards to the tyres; there's no way Pirelli can allow it to happen again. 

A safety car is what McLaren will need as they aim to prevent a third consecutive race with no points. Their car is nowhere and I’m not sure they have the drivers who can drag a result out of the car. I’m not sure they can even get a podium this year the way it looks at the moment.

Finally I believe that Kimi will have sorted his hair out, because really? Judging by that picture he had a pretty wild night out at some point!

all photo's taken from autosport.com