After race thoughts: Was Canada a turning point?

Could Jenson Button’s Canadian Grand Prix win be the turning point of the season, when Vettel and Red Bull begin to crumble? There is a short answer to this, and that’s no. Red Bull came to Canada fearing a negative result. McLaren and Ferrari were expected to be much stronger at a track that relies more on straight line, Mercedes and Ferrari engines being stronger than the Renault of Red Bull.

This must strike fear into the hearts of Red Bull’s rivals, as not only did they continue their domination in qualifying, getting their seventh consecutive pole position, but they were only half a lap away from leading pretty much lights to flag as they have done all year. They remain an awesome proposition especially with a higher down force track like Valencia coming up which Sebastian Vettel won last year.

However, this is not to say the opposition weren’t stronger. Ferrari qualified less than a tenth of a second behind with both cars and McLaren continued to be much stronger with their race pace than they are in qualifying. In fact it’s fair to say that the Woking team have had the quickest race car for the last three races. It’s only Vettel, who drove immaculately in Spain to hold off Hamilton, and a certain amount of luck in Monaco that has stopped them.

McLaren team principle Martin Whitmarsh seems to think that McLaren may be in the ascendancy as they have a strong record of development although he is realistic enough to admit that “Red Bull remains the pacesetter”. But this does give hope that the season will not be a Red Bull walkover. After his first victory of the year Jenson Button told the BBC he is optimistic about still securing the title for himself.

Ferrari also carried on improved form from Monaco. We’re still not sure if they’ve managed to solve their problem on the hard compound tyres as Pirelli have only brought the soft and super-soft with them the last few races, and although I won’t be surprised to see Fernando Alonso topping a podium soon they still have much to work on to continue this upturn. They definitely had strong pace last weekend, it was just a shame about the race.  

Mercedes and Renault, although not likely to be consistent challengers, are moving in the right direction and could throw in the odd surprise result. So there are reasons to be hopeful that Vettel won’t quite walk away with it, but Red Bull continue to grow as a team, learning from the mistakes of last year, much like their driver.

Button’s closing down and pressurising of Vettel into a mistake on the last lap was immense. Last year this may have got to the German but not now. With becoming World Champion Vettel walks with confidence. He is much more assured and despite pressure in a number of recent races, he’s not cracked until now. We’ll see how he performs in Valencia, but I’ve a feeling any chink in the armour will have long since been dealt with.

Red Bull have slaughtered everyone in qualifying, and have managed the races perfectly for the most part and last year they were able to keep up with the rate of development very well indeed. McLaren and Ferrari have always been formidable, but now Red Bull are truly established at the top table, so are they.

It’s also worth noting that with Vettel currently dominating his team mate Mark Webber, unless there is only one consistent challenger from Lewis Hamilton, Button or Alonso, then it’s going to be very hard to catch Vettel at all.

Looking forward perhaps the British Grand Prix on July 10^th will be more of a turning point. The FIA confirmed during the week that hot blown diffusers will effectively be banned from Silverstone something that Red Bull has perfected better than most.

This is when exhaust gasses are ignited and blown through the diffuser to increase down force even when the driver is off the throttle and on some tracks can be worth up to a second per lap. Most teams run some kind of version of this technology, but the ban does have the potential to shake up the order.

More thoughts coming up on rotating races, Lewis Hamilton to Red Bull rumours and Toro Rosso’s driver dilemma.