We’re approaching round 8 this weekend, the European Grand Prix around the docks of Valencia. I’m writing this as first practice is about to begin, it’s looking a bit overcast in Spain this morning but according to the forecast rain won’t be an issue.
One thing this season has taught us is to expect the unexpected (apart from the winner generally). With the variations in tyres and the strategies this results in, we have had some quite amazing and thrilling races, even in Spain. This weekend actually promises to bring us another exciting grand prix with close concrete walls, a new tyre compound and a double DRS zone adding extra complexity to the team’s tasks.
The first point of interest though is engine mapping. Might not sound particularly exciting, but this could be crucial in qualifying. In addition to the hot exhaust blown diffuser ban that is being introduced at the British Grand Prix, the FIA have decided to ban teams changing engine maps between qualifying and the race.
This means that teams will no longer be able to run extreme engine maps in qualifying which burns more fuel and blows more hot air through the diffuser creating more down force and then revert to a safer map for the race. It is thought this is one area which Red Bull have maximised and given them greater performance in qualifying than other teams.
So if it affects Red Bull more than others we could have a new team on pole position which would be quite the novelty this year. Having said that, I can’t look past Red Bull for the win in Valencia, this track is a fast flowing track for them to fully exploit. They’re far more than just a blown diffuser, so I expect them to be strong, particularly with Sebastian Vettel who won last year.
The other variable is the choice of tyres with Pirelli bringing the medium compound for the first time as well as the super soft. This might throw a few surprises into the mix as teams adjust to them.
So, apart from Sebastian Vettel who else could challenge for victory? Lewis Hamilton will be determined to prove himself and I would still expect a few aggressive moves from him, but I’ve a feeling they may actually come off this time. He’s finished 2nd three times in Valencia so he’s more than capable of going that one step further. Lewis is a racer and he’ll not care what anyone thinks of him, but it is crucial he gets a result this time.
McLaren team mate Jenson Button is also in with a shout. He had an inspired race in Canada and could have won the last 2 grand prix if things had fallen his way in Monaco. He’s in good form and will be one to watch. With Lewis under pressure, Jenson will be looking to push to the forefront and become McLaren’s main championship challenger.
We mustn’t forget Vettel’s team mate Mark Webber. He may not be having the greatest season so far. He’s finished behind Vettel in every race this year, so he needs a strong weekend to reassert himself in the team. He’s looked subdued all season and he’s complained about the tyres not suiting him, but he’s not one for giving up, and if anyone can pull out a surprise result when his back is against the wall it’s Mark. He is in a Red Bull after all.
Ferrari is an unknown force coming into this weekend. Despite good pace the last few races they come here still unsure about how to use the harder compounds. Although the medium compound tyre is softer than the hard, there still seems to be issues over getting heat into the tyres with the more durable compounds.
One thing that is guaranteed is Fernando Alonso will be going all out to give his countrymen a great performance. In his own words ‘everything that could go wrong, did go wrong’ in Canada and he’ll be looking for a strong result.
Felipe Massa will just be looking to continue his strong showing from North America. He was near the front for a long time, and fought till the end. Massa still hasn’t shown us his true potential since his accident, and he’ll have to soon unless he wants to give another victory away to Alonso.
The Mercedes pair will want strong results with both being optimistic of a good race and with strong straight line speed, the best DRS wing with two DRS zones to exploit, they could be dark horses for a podium. Michael Schumacher is looking confident and Nico Rosberg just wants to get ahead again.
Renault need to step and get some more consistency if they want to beat Mercedes to fourth in the constructors championship. Vitaly Petrov is still susceptible to some off road moments despite his strong fifth in Canada. Nick Heidfeld was running well there too before his accident, and will want a good points finish this time. They could be strong, but I don’t expect them to challenge for a win.
A track which is lined by concrete walls is bound to attract a few cars to visit, so the final variable here is safety cars. It caused controversy last year when it split the pack causing Fernando Alonso to throw many a toy out of the cockpit after Lewis Hamilton gained an advantage by overtaking the safety car as it left the pits, leaving Alonso trapped behind.
Other notables to watch out for include Kamui Kobayashi, who will pass where not even Lewis would dare to tread. Also look out for Pastor Maldonado in the Williams, who is quietly outshining his vastly more experienced team mate Rubens Barrichello. For someone who was regarded as a pay driver at the beginning of the year, he’s showing some great speed.
Anyway, first practice has ended and as much as the times mean nothing, Mark Webber is heading the times. Let’s see if he can sustain a challenge to his team mate over the weekend.
The main thing now is we need one consistent challenger to Vettel, with all the variables of tyres, engine mapping and a double DRS zone maybe one could rise from the pack. However, Red Bull are more than a one trick bovine, and despite the engine mapping perhaps affecting them more than others, they’ll still be very tough to beat.
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