Musical chairs for 2013 not over yet

There were two major players in the driver market this year and it was all about waiting for them to make their mind up.

Michael Schumacher couldn’t make a decision on his future quick enough, much like when he brakes, so Lewis Hamilton took the decision and made the jump to Mercedes which instigated the move from Sauber to McLaren for Sergio 

Perez. So where does that leave the driver market?

Well it means that most of the top table seats have gone for 2013. Lotus have all but confirmed Kimi Raikkonen and Romain Grosjean to remain for next season, so the only seat remaining is Felipe Massa’s at Ferrari.

Other drives which look open are both seats at Sauber, which judging from this year would actually be quite attractive for many drivers.

Force India will probably confirm both current drivers if they don’t get a better option. Paul di Resta had been rumoured for a move to either Mercedes or McLaren but has obviously missed the boat. I imagine Toro Rosso will have to keep faith for at least one more year with their current incumbents.

Williams have had the pace this year, and despite his many incidents Pastor Maldonado has displayed a huge amount of speed, which if he can learn from his mistakes can be harnessed better next year; he’s also got a bunch of Venezuelan money. Bruno Senna has been the more reliable driver but unfortunately has not had the spark that Maldonado has had. The likelihood is that their third driver Valtteri Bottas will be promoted.

That leaves the three new teams with only Timo Glock at Marussia and Pedro de la Rosa at HRT pretty much certain.

Ferrari

As great a story as it would be I can’t see Schumacher going for the Ferrari seat alongside Fernando Alonso. No it would be much more worthwhile getting a younger driver who’d be willing to learn from the Spaniard such as Nico Hulkenberg. He’s the main person being linked to the drive, but it’s most likely to be Felipe Massa.

So the rumours go, Sebastian Vettel may already have signed a pre-contract with Ferrari for 2014, and I think if that’s the case Hulkenberg wouldn’t go for just a year. Heikki Kovalainen might, he was adequate back up to Hamilton at Mclaren, but he’s grown a lot since leading Caterham so I’m not sure he would want to accept a subservient role.

No, the most likely scenario seems to be to keep Massa for one more year and then see what the options are, after all he is gradually improving, and you’d hope Ferrari would make an easier car to drive next year for Massa to sit on the tail of Alonso.

Sauber

So the seats at Sauber are when it’ll get really competitive. Sauber traditionally have helped younger talent develop so it might not be a surprise to see a GP2 star get a seat, they have 3^rd in the 2012 championship Esteban Gutierrez on their books, but I’ve a feeling they won’t hire him as he seemed a bit erratic this year. Perhaps they might take a chance of the top 2, champion Davide Valsecchi and runner up Luiz Razia.

Kamui Kobayashi should be allowed to stay, but the team seem to have gone cold on him, with a lot of rumours in the F1 press persisting that his drive was under threat. Perhaps they’ll have a change of heart now Perez has gone, so they at least have some continuity.

The main players for these seats seem to be Jaime Alguersuari and Heikki Kovalainen. Of those drivers I see Heikki eventually remaining at Caterham with Vitaly Petrov. He’s come too far with them to give up on it now, although if there’s no progress next year, he’d be well within his rights to jump ship.

Alguersuari has to be a favourite for a seat at one of the high end midfield seats. I thought he played a starring role in the Toro Rosso during 2011, often making strategies work on less stops like Perez has been doing this year.

He was pretty unceremoniously dropped, he was just about to get off the learning curve and was really developing. He’d have made a good bench mark at least for one of the two current Toro Rosso drivers at least who have no one to learn from and so far have been fairly unremarkable.

However, this situation has allowed him to be Pirelli test driver, so he has the inside scoop on the new compounds for 2013, and according to his twitter account is very hopeful of securing a drive. I think he’s going to be at Sauber next year.

Schumacher

The interesting story from the Hamilton fall out was that Schumacher has not instantly announced his retirement. In fact there's been no mention whatsoever. 

His representatives were seen at Sauber in Singapore and it is known he's still weighing up the options despite the loss of his drive. It would be like going full circle in a way as he was at the Sauber Mercedes sports car team when he got his opportunity in Formula 1.

I’m not sure that would be the most dignified of career ends for a driver of the calibre he once had but he loves to race so maybe he’s not quite done with it yet but he'd surely know that he'd have no chance of another title or probably a win despite this seasons Sauber form. Would he really have the motivation to not be working towards a higher goal than points finishes? 

At least at Mercedes there was that belief of a title challenge, at least to start with. It'll be interesting to see his choice. However, Brawn has said there would be a place open for him at Mercedes in an as yet unspecified role.

The remaining seats

This then leaves us with the final ‘new’ teams as it were. As I said I think Kovalainen will end up staying at Caterham and Petrov might get another year.

There seems to be a revolving door concept for the second drive at Marussia, so a new GP2 star could take the place of Charles Pic, such as their current reserve Max Chilton, or Jules Bianchi who’s been in the third driver role at Force India.

Meanwhile at HRT I can see them potentially employing the Chinese driver Ma Qing Hua who’ve they’ve given some practice run outs too. Of course he would come with some money, and there’s the other thing, especially with these new teams, budget does play a part. Actually it plays a part for most teams these days.

So here’s some of the options for next year.

Ferrari – Alonso and Massa/Hulkenberg as an outside possibility.

Red Bull – Vettel and Webber

McLaren – Button and Perez

Lotus – Raikkonen and Grosjean

Mercedes – Hamilton and Rosberg

Sauber - Alguersuari/Kovalainen/Kobayashi/ Gutierrez/Schumacher/Razia/Valsecchi

Force India – di Resta and Hulkenberg/Bianchi/Alguersuari

Toro Rosso – Ricciardo and Vergne

Williams – Maldonado and Bottas/Senna

Caterham – Kovalainen and Petrov

Marussia – Glock and Pic/Razia/Valsecchi/Chilton

HRT – de la Rosa and Hua/Karthikeyan

all photo's from autosport.com