Is Kevin Magnussen the next Lewis Hamilton?

Lazy headline I know, but stay with me. Kevin Magnussen has risen through McLaren’s young driver program at a time when a lot has been written in the F1 press about pay drivers. Those drivers who have managed to fund their stay in Formula 1 perhaps at the expense of better drivers who are not backed as heavily. The likes of Pastor Maldonado securing a top line drive at Lotus is the obvious one.

This was particularly notable for the fact that Lotus openly said that if they could secure the finance they wanted to hire Nico Hulkenberg. They couldn’t so they didn’t and in stepped Maldonado with a tonne of Venezuelan cash behind him. Let’s not forget though that Maldonado is a race winner, even the drivers with money have a huge amount of talent to reach Formula 1. Even Max Chilton was a race winner in GP2.

It is sad though that money can be a deciding factor in who gets to drive where and who will rise up the grid. It’s a distinct aberration in the way Formula 1 is run that some of the better midfield teams and even now some of the top teams have to make this consideration when deciding who will drive for them. There’s enough money coming in that all teams could be run comfortably, but large amounts of money are siphoned off into Bernie and CVC’s coffers while the spread amongst the teams is incredibly unfair and tilted to those who already have an advantage.

However, amongst all the concerning talk of pay drivers not allowing new talent to shine through in the top echelon of motor sport, the curious thing about 2014 is that the two rookies who have been promoted to rarefied air of Formula 1 have been picked on talent.

Admittedly Toro Rosso’s new driver is Russian Daniil Kvyat who has been hired just as the first Russian Grand Prix comes on the calendar. But let’s not be cynical, he is the current GP3 champion, like Williams’ Valtteri Bottas, so I look forward to seeing how he gets on alongside Jean-Eric Vergne. These are the kind of drivers who should be in the sport.

So it’s with even more glee I anticipate Magnussen’s arrival into the sport, not least because he is slotting into the McLaren seat vacated by Sergio Perez. He’s been under the McLaren young driver scheme since 2009 when he was just 17 years old.

So is he the next Lewis Hamilton? Well no, I wouldn’t seek to categorise him as such at all, he is Kevin Magnussen who has his own talents. If anything he is on a steadily rising upward curve. Whereas Hamilton won pretty much every championship he entered, Magnussen hasn’t reigned supreme. However as the Formula’s have got bigger he has got more successful. He was Danish Formula Ford champion, but after this success he didn’t win a title again until last year in World Series by Renault 3.5 which featured a great many talents I’d hope and expect to reach Formula 1 in the next few years including fellow McLaren young driver Stoffel Vandoorne.

That’s not to say he didn’t have success, his talent was obvious and in the Formula 1 young driver test at Silverstone last year he created a strong impression, so much so that Perez was moved on after just one year at McLaren to make room.

But what makes him so exciting is that he is probably the best prepared rookie we’ve had for years. He’s not had the testing miles he would have had in the past, but he’ll have had a lot of simulator experience and has been groomed by McLaren for five years now; for them to promote him without farming him out to a midfield team first means they have a lot of faith that Magnussen’s is a special talent just like Lewis was…is.

I’m really looking forward to how he comes up against Jenson Button. Gary Paffet, McLaren development driver, has said that he expects Magnussen will push Button, which is something Button needs to get the best out of himself anyway. I expect the 2014 regulations to suit Jenson too, so if Magnussen can compete with and even beat the former world champion, then we’ll have a superstar almost immediately.

At the very least I expect a longer and better McLaren career than his dad Jan Magnussen had in 1995, who had a two race stint before fading out of Formula 1 with Stewart Grand Prix a few years later after he’d shown such promise in junior Formulae.

There’s lots of other drivers to get excited about in 2014, the aforementioned Kvyat, the progress of Bottas at Williams, especially as he’s not up against Felipe Massa who I think will be rejuvenated now he’s left Ferrari.

Nico Hulkenberg and Sergio Perez make a tasty combination at Force India. While at the front of the grid, I’m looking forward to seeing if Daniel Ricciardo can get one over on the four time champion Sebastian Vettel. It’s Ricciardo’s chance to shine and he might just get one chance with so much talent on the Red Bull young driver program coming through.

Ferrari obviously have quite the pairing with Fernando Alonso and Kimi Raikkonen, although I don’t think it’ll be acrimonious between them it might get heated between the Spaniard and the team. I think it could get quite tense between Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton, especially if as is predicted Mercedes could be holding a title winning car.

Romain Grosjean and Pastor Maldonado could surprise everyone. Grosjean particularly I think will shine this year if Lotus can get it together.

A lot has been talked about with the regulation changes but the drivers are the heart of the sport, they are the focus and there’s a lot to be excited about as 2014 gets going.

Drivers of the year 2013 - The Top Ten

For the first two parts please click here for 23-17 and here for 16-11.

We've reached the top, I'm not sure all will agree, but surely no one can deny who is number one...

10. Jenson Button (McLaren)

In his McLaren years and many before that too, Jenson has never been a great qualifier so perhaps it is unsurprising that he was out-qualified by his team mate Sergio Perez. Having said that Perez wasn’t thought of as a great qualifier either…

However, Jenson proved many times over that he can still bring the car home where it should be, and his race to fourth in Brazil deserved to be a podium. I wonder sometimes if Button needs extra impetus, I feel sure we’d have had more of those races if he’d still had Lewis Hamilton alongside him pushing him. With Kevin Magnussen joining McLaren and being touted as a rookie that will make as much of an impression as Hamilton, Button is sure to have his hands full. But I’d expect far more inspirational performances from him next year as a result as I’m sure he felt he didn’t have to overly extend himself to get one over Perez. This season he sparkled on occasion but too much did just seem slightly disillusioned.

9. Felipe Massa (Ferrari)

He’s been regularly beaten at Ferrari since Fernando Alonso joined the team so his performance at beating Fernando nine times in qualifying is pretty impressive. Once he learned he wasn’t being kept on he seemed to leap into life a bit more. He managed a podium early on in the year, but his best racing came in the latter half with fourth place in India a particular highlight where he out-qualified and out-raced Alonso pretty comprehensively.

It is time Massa moved away from Ferrari and I think he’ll have a new lease of life with a safe two year contract at Williams. As long as the team progress I think he’ll flourish and certainly show a bit more of the fight that characterised his early years at Ferrari that allowed him to nearly become world champion before his terrible accident in 2009. He was overwhelmed by Alonso, but away from that atmosphere he can show much more of the great racing that we saw only occasionally this year.

8. Mark Webber (Red Bull)

Webber may have finished third in the championship and taken eight podiums and took an astounding pole position in Abu Dhabi that showed total commitment but at other points he seemed decidedly lacklustre. And perhaps the harshest stat available is that his team mate Sebastian Vettel took 13 wins while he failed to take one in his final year of Formula 1.

Admittedly he probably should have had one in Malaysia after Vettel ignored team orders while mechanical failures and poor starts hampered other opportunities, but when you only direct comparison is your team mate he had one of the worst records in 2013. That’s no shame to a driver who seems to be getting better and better as he was still very close quite often and could often pull off some fantastic overtakes.

But when the Red Bull is as strong as it was this year, he’ll be disappointed he couldn’t push it the way Vettel could. I think Malaysia affected his state of mind and perhaps even a bit of his motivation. Maybe his mind wondered to his new life with Porsche in the World Endurance Championship, whatever though there were moments when you thought why is he retiring, but too often this year he failed to get the better results that he might once have gritted his teeth and dug in for.

7. Nico Hulkenberg (Sauber)

Well at least he’s still in Formula 1. Yes, despite more heroics behind the wheel this year Hulkenberg faced the very real threat that he could end up without a seat for 2014. The fact he’s ended up back at Force India and not moved up the grid is quite the travesty. He should have replaced Kimi Raikkonen at Lotus but unfortunately money talked and they took Pastor Maldonao, someone I’ve ranked 11 places lower.  If he’s not in a top team by 2015 he could well end up missing out.

But let’s hope that doesn’t happen because if he can produce another season with some giant killing performances then surely next year someone will give him a call. The Sauber wasn’t great in the first half of the season, but he still managed to knock out some points with some hard fought drives. The second half the car improved and his results rose as they should.

But nothing beats his drive to fourth in Korea, holding off Lewis Hamilton and Fernando Alonso for lap after lap under constant pressure. It was a drive along with many others this year that merited more.

6. Romain Grosjean (Lotus)

If there was a prize for the most improved driver of the year there is no doubt it would go to this man. Although to start off with he looked tame. Last year ended in a bit of a disaster so this year to combat his wild ways he almost went in the opposite direction. It was as if he feared that to unlock his speed he had to push beyond his control.

Thankfully this turned out to not be the case, he clocked six podiums in total, four in the final six races and was regularly out pacing Kimi by the end of the season. There were some circumstances involved in this, the tyre change mid-season didn’t help Kimi, nor did the introduction of a longer wheelbase car. But Grosjean dealt with it effectively and outshone his Ferrari bound team mate to the point that in the latter third of the season Grosjean looked to be the most likely man to take the fight to Vettel.

Perhaps his sports psychologist helped, perhaps the birth of his first child made him grow up and mature. He’s said that he realised he focused too much on Formula 1 and by releasing himself from that pressure he’s thrived. Whatever it is, he’s matured into a fast, incisive over taker who looks in total control and will lead Lotus into the unknown of 2014 with deserved confidence. I look forward to seeing what he can do next year.

5. Nico Rosberg (Mercedes)

Everyone expected Nico to fall to Lewis Hamilton. That he remained strong against him throughout most of the year is a great credit to Nico. In fact there were times when Rosberg had quite a significant edge over his World Champion team mate.

Of course Lewis is one of the fastest out there and that did tell in qualifying, but not by all that much in the end. And in the races Nico won two races to Lewis’ one. Ok the second win was because Lewis and Vettel retired, but the first in Monaco was a masterpiece of control from a great pole position in which he kept the field behind him at a pace he wanted. It was sublime.

I think Nico has an edge with the conservation role in Formula 1 over Lewis. It’s only Hamilton’s brute force that has helped push him ahead, but with more tyres to manage and fuel conservation next year, Formula 1 is no longer about going as fast as you can which I think can help Nico.

He has continued his good form, although he still can have a tendency to fall back in races or just disappear, although that is happening less often.

4. Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)

Sometimes Lewis is great, sometimes he seems lost. It seems like he can’t maintain focus for a whole season anymore. It seemed like he was the ultimate professional in his first two years in Formula 1 which resulted in his 2008 Championship. Since then there have been lapses and even with a move to Mercedes these lapses continue to happen.

Admittedly in 2013 the Mercedes has not been to his liking. He hasn’t felt completely comfortable in all year, particularly with the brakes, one tool you certainly need for confidence. Despite this he has led the way for the team in the most part, taking five pole positions, a fantastic victory in Hungary and another four podiums too. He has certainly added impetus to a team that stagnated last year.

However, I feel like he is not using his full potential a lot of the time. Such is the talent of Lewis Hamilton he doesn’t have to drive to his maximum to be up there, but if he could just feel comfortable and get his head fully focused on his driving again, then we could see something special. Sometimes all it takes is a winning car, and if Mercedes produce the standard bearer many are predicting for 2014, then Hamilton can be something to behold.

3. Kimi Raikkonen (Lotus)

He may have not been paid all year, he may have been grumpy, had back problems and left the team two races early to sort said back problems in preparation for his return to Ferrari. He also may have not liked the change of tyres mid-season or the alterations to his car, or the fact his team mate Grosjean started getting the better of him.

But the thing with Kimi is, he just shakes it off, gets in the car and drives it to its maximum potential and that’s pretty much all you can ask. Ok, his qualifying since he’s been back has not been as good as it should be, but overall he was still beating Grosjean and despite his two race absence was still 51 points better off.

Kimi won a great race in Australia and was always up there fighting, no matter where he started from. His move to Ferrari could produce fireworks alongside Fernando Alonso, although I think they’ll get on fine. Kimi is there to do a job. Fernando thinks Kimi won’t be a problem as Massa was often quicker when they were Ferrari team mates. But that was Massa before his accident and Kimi when he was on his way out of Formula 1.

Now the Finn is in the ascendency again, I think Fernando is going to have a lot tougher time than he thinks. Kimi is relentless in his consistency and certainly will not be Fernando’s back up. Maybe not fireworks, but definitely some sparklers.

2. Fernando Alonso (Ferrari)

I wasn’t sure who was going to be runner up. It was a tough choice between Kimi and Fernando. They both have qualifying as a weakness at the moment, but they also both have never say die attitude in the races and will always be up there fighting it out whatever. In the end I went for Fernando because he had more of an edge of his team mate and overall just a slightly more consistent year than Kimi did.

Yet again Fernando produced some fantastic drives, his wins in China and Spain were fantastic, his podium in Brazil was another highlight. But unlike in 2012, there seemed to be a few lacklustre displays too such as Monaco or India where he just didn’t seem as on it. And the mistake in Malaysia then Bahrain didn’t seem entirely Fernando. Perhaps even in those early stages that despite having a decent car to start off with he already knew that some developments weren’t working as they should.

Once again Ferrari couldn’t give him the car to take the title and that frustration boiled over in the middle of the year so it’ll be interesting to see how he handles Kimi next season. However, he still managed to find a pace his team mate couldn’t and obtain results which seemed out of reach as he always does. I hope he can challenge properly for the title again next year, he deserves to otherwise I can see his time at Ferrari not ending pleasantly.

1       

           1.  Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull)

Well what can you say about this four time champion that I and many others haven’t already said. He was simply brilliant this year. He topped anything he’d done before. He showed his ruthless streak in Malaysia and so many times he demonstrated his just awesome speed and consistency. He took nine pole positions, his lap in America when he looked out of it was fantastic. His race winning margins in Abu Dhabi and Korea just made it look easy while his defensive victory in Germany was a joy.

This year we watched history be made as he won a record nine times in a row and took 13 wins in total to equal the most in a season. Some will point to the tyre change helping Red Bull unleash more of the potential of their car, but it was updates to the rear of the car too in Belgium that helped optimize the cars potential.

It should also be pointed out that Vettel was a decent points haul ahead at the mid-way point, I’m not sure anyone was about to get on terms with him. Vettel only went two consecutive races without a win in the first 10 Grand Prix. It was under the radar domination but domination none the less. He showed he could produce the results when the car couldn’t in the first half and then exploited everything to the full when the Red Bull stretched its legs in the second half.

Vettel has undoubtedly been the best in the current regulations with his ability to drive counter-intuitively with the blown diffusers being a particular asset and one which his team mate was never able to master. His mastery of the Pirelli tyres has also been second to none, but next year comes a change. I think in previous years this may have been a worry, but I do believe he continues to get better and he learns so quickly I don’t think he has anything to fear. No, the rest of the field need to fear him as I think he proved this year he’s the best in the world. 

all photo's taken from autosport.com

The Brazilian Forecast

In Brazil we trust. Rarely do we get a dull race around the Interlagos track in Sao Paulo and with the weather forecast predicting rain on every day of the event, the 2013 season could be in for a thrilling finale which might just see the dampening of the Red Bull party.

Not that it would take much of the gloss off what has been a brilliantly dominant campaign from the Milton Keynes based team. If it is a dry race then they have every hope of Sebastian Vettel continuing to exploit their car to the fullest as Pirelli are bringing the hard and medium tyre meaning the tyres should last nicely. There are also two DRS zones, the first on the start finish straight with the second coming after the Senna S.

If it is a wet race let’s not get carried away with thinking that Vettel will be out of it. He’s brilliant in wet conditions too and would have every chance of showing them off, but a bit of H2O goes a long way to mixing the pack up, especially if it’s a wet dry race. The weather at the moment seems to suggest that Sunday will be full of short showers not constant falling rain. So let's look to the positives for F1's final 2013 fling.

I can’t think of a wet race that Romain Grosjean has excelled in during his time of Formula 1, although over the last few years they’ve been hard to come by. If it is raining on Sunday then that will be the first wet race all year. However, my point was that Grosjean in the latter half of this year has been brilliant and put in some incredibly mature drives, not least his great run to second place last time out in America.

Lotus look to have the only car capable of at least getting into the mix with the Red Bull’s in dry conditions so if it is wet, perhaps this will be the chance for them to nab a second victory of the year, in fact it would mean they bookend the season. Definitely watch out for Grosjean. Even his replacement team mate Heikki Kovalainen might be worth watching out for. He looked quick in his first race back for nearly a year, especially in qualifying.

Nico Hulkenberg for Sauber will also be worth watching out for. He took a fantastic pole position for Williams here in 2010 and last year was leading the race comfortably for a while before a dice with Lewis Hamilton saw him sliding helplessly into the British driver. He still recovered to fifth while Lewis retired in his final race for McLaren.

Lewis looked to have rediscovered a bit of form for Mercedes in the USA ahead of his team mate Nico Rosberg, and he’s always looked quick here despite lacking a win. If it’s raining it might be a chance for him to shine one final time in 2013, his wet weather driving is usually something to behold and Rosberg isn't bad either.

That could also mean renowned wet weather specialist Jenson Button could finally grab McLaren a podium this year, or maybe something even better; he was the winner here last year in a mixed condition race. Sergio Perez too, in his final race for McLaren is pretty handy in the wet so it is potentially a race for them to go for the win with nothing to lose.

Valtteri Bottas made Williams look like a team to be taken seriously again in the USA with a strong qualifying and an equally strong race to claim their best result of the year. He was fantastic in wet qualifying in Canada, and with Williams having made real progress since they sorted out the rear end of their car, it would be worth keeping an eye on Bottas and Pastor Maldonado to spring a surprise.

We can’t forget about Ferrari either. In the dry, maybe we can, but again this hinges on the race being wet, but Fernando Alonso can be magnificent in these conditions and will exploit his car to its fullest to pull of one final miracle win. Felipe Massa shouldn’t be ruled out either, he’s a twice winner of his home Grand Prix, and in his final race for Ferrari will be desperate to go out in style.  

There are interesting dynamics in the constructors championship too, with a fight for second still going on between Mercedes, Ferrari and Lotus while down at the back, it takes just one mixed up race for Caterham to steal 10^th place and a lot of prize money from Marussia who’ve been in the vital spot since the start of the year. Caterham pulled off that feat last year, there’s no reason they can’t do it again.

There's plenty to fight for with regards to next year too. There are only a few seats left up for grabs and enough drivers currently competing to fill them up twice over. It's going to one final chance to prove themselves for the likes of Paul di Resta, Adrian Sutil, Esteban Gutierrez, Sergio Perez, Pastor Maldonado, Giedo van der Garde, Charles Pic, Max Chilton and for some inexplicable reason Nico Hulkenberg. Daniel Ricciardo and Jean-Eric Vergne have their seats safe for next year, but they'll likely be jostling with many of these drivers, so it could be quite the wild time.

We shouldn’t forget two time Brazilian Grand Prix winner Mark Webber either, in his final race in Formula 1. He’ll be desperate to finish his career with one more win to take him into double figures, and if it ends up being a dry race he should be the only one able to take the fight to Vettel and give us a rousing send off to the 2013 season. It doesn’t really matter if Vettel wins or not, I think some of his wins this year have been mesmerising. But it would just be nice to send this season off with an exhilarating fight for the win.

If it’s dry, it’s almost certain to be a Red Bull demonstration run, if it’s wet however, then let the sport come alive once more. Come on Formula 1, one last hurrah. 

all photo's taken from autosport.com

The Indian Forecast

Sebastian Vettel can take his fourth consecutive world championship this weekend in India; does anyone doubt that he will? No, of course not, it’s practically a certainty he’ll claim the fifth place he needs to wrap it up. In a season where he has finished no lower than fourth and won the last five races only a disastrous weekend will delay the party.

Vettel has won the only two previous races at the Buddh International Circuit, in fact he has taken pole position and led every lap too. Everything points to Vettel securing the points he needs. That’s an easy prediction to make. However, he may not take the title with a win? Mark Webber still has a point to prove and I hope he can continue his Japanese form. And yes, believe it or not, there are still challengers out there that could stop the Red Bull victory parade.

Pirelli are bringing the soft and medium tyres this weekend which is a more aggressive option than last year. 

This should result in a more open race. The tyre choices since the regression to last year’s construction have been fairly conservative which has certainly favoured Red Bull in the second half of the campaign. Perhaps this direction will see other teams, particularly Lotus, manage to challenge for the top step of the podium.

Having said that the likelihood is that Red Bull has been on top of any tyre issues they had for quite some time. The weather is going to be hot all weekend; with temperatures looking to be into the 30C’s so that will be a test for the tyres and teams too. There are two DRS zones here, one on the start finish straight with another after turn three on the longest straight on the track. I wouldn’t think passing will be a problem here.

Ok, I’m going to make some rash predictions, well probably quite safe really but I’m just going to throw them out there. We’ve already established that Vettel will likely win the title this weekend, but I’m going to say that he won’t win. I think a Lotus will win. I think that Lotus will be the car of Romain Grosjean. Or Kimi Raikkonen. Probably Kimi, he’s the man to get the job done and he’s almost always there.

But Grosjean has been driving fantastically in recent races and certainly has shown great ability to the extent that he will be leading the Lotus team next year whether Nico Hulkenberg joins or not. Other likely challenges will come from Mercedes and Ferrari.

Mercedes could have had a good result in Japan if it weren’t for Lewis Hamilton’s first lap puncture caused by having a good start! It was a shame, but it’s doubtful he would have had the pace to hold off the Red Bull’s or even Grosjean. If the silver arrows can get a clean weekend then with either Lewis or Nico Rosberg they can claim a podium.

I can only see Ferrari getting on the podium if any of the three teams I’ve already talked about have problems. Of course Fernando Alonso can make his car dance on a tightrope if he so desired, but that skill isn’t good enough if the car isn’t remotely competitive anymore. Felipe Massa is apparently talking to Williams about a 2014 seat so will be looking to put in a good performance. He’s shown up Alonso in qualifying a few times over the past few race weekends, now he needs to demonstrate his racing ability once again.

Sauber are the fifth fastest team in Formula 1 right now. They have practically come from nowhere in the first half to potentially snatching sixth in the constructors from Force India who have gone in the opposite direction to the Swiss team. Nico Hulkenberg has been superb while Esteban Gutierrez after his points winning performance in Japan will be looking to keep that form up.

Force India are also-rans.  Their performance downturn came at the worst possible time for Paul di Resta, whose own form has taken a turn for the worse as well with several crashes. He’s ill at the moment and James Calado will take over in first practice to allow Paul a chance to recover. It would be kind of nice to see Calado get a chance to race although it would be like throwing him into the middle of the Atlantic with nothing but one inflatable armband.

Toro Rosso were leading the midfield pack but didn’t take enough of an advantage of it like Force India and now Sauber are doing. Consequently they have fallen to eighth in the teams table, which is still better than Williams, Marussia and Caterham, all who can expect more of the same disappointments that have characterised their seasons. At least Toro Rosso can generally expect a chance of getting a car (usually Daniel Ricciardo) into Q3.

Surprise of the race could be Jenson Button and McLaren. Button has been talking of going extreme with his set up this weekend as he has nothing to lose. It won't catapult him to a win but it'll certainly be interesting if there's an improvement in form. Sergio Perez meanwhile is being asked to prove himself once more after what many consider a disappointing season. In my opinion that's more because of the car, he's been just as quick as Jenson, ok there is a big points gap but one I'd expect to be closed next year. 

Finally the sad thing about this race is that it could be the last Indian Grand Prix for some time after only three races. It’s not on the 2014 schedule and after the difficulties with tax and administration that have afflicted it over the last few years, teams particularly are fed up with the challenges of actually getting their kit into the country, then it’s by no means a certainty that it’ll be back in 2015 as has been suggested. Even now there is a petition going to the Indian Supreme Court to stop the race taking place this weekend due to alleged unpaid taxes.

So yes, time to look forward to the crowning of the world champion and a first win for Grosjean. One of these things will almost certainly happen.

all photo's from autosport.com

The Japanese Forecast

The Japanese Grand Prix is pretty much beloved by all; the Suzuka is a fantastic track with a great fan base and atmosphere. Japan used to be one of the last couple of races of the year, invariably that meant it would be the host of a championship decider. Many drivers have won here to cement their name in the Formula 1 hall of fame to join the likes of Senna, Prost, Hakkinen and Schumacher who have secured their glory here.

It doesn’t happen so often now. After Japan there will still be four races to go. In fact the only driver who has manage to win the championship here in recent years is Sebastian Vettel in 2011, when he was on an equally dominant run as this year has turned out to be. And it’s here again that he has his first opportunity to wrap up the title.

If Vettel wins and Fernando Alonso finishes ninth or lower, the title is secure for the fourth year in a row. However it is by no means guaranteed that Vettel will win, despite it seeming like after four consecutive wins. It’s also highly unlikely that Alonso will finish outside the top six. No, the likelihood is the championship will appear to still be alive in to the Indian Grand Prix two weeks later.

Of course, this race isn’t just about the championship, there is an actual race up for grabs and that is more open than it might seem. First off, the simple things; the weather is meant to bring some rain with it over the weekend. Particularly at the time of writing, Friday and Saturday are meant to be wet, making qualifying a potential lottery which could spice up the race. Sunday however is dry, which means anyone out of position will have the opportunity to fight back.

There is only one DRS zone at Suzuka on the start finish straight. It’s not overly long, and it doesn’t make as big a difference as some other DRS zones. The tyres Pirelli have brought are the medium and hard tyre compounds, so you wouldn’t expect degradation to be too significant here, despite its blend of medium and fast corners which puts extra strain on the tyres.

Let’s put it out there now and say if you don’t predict that Sebastian Vettel and Red Bull will be contenders for pole and victory, you’d be pretty silly. Winner in three of the last four races here, Vettel is most certainly a driver to keep your eye on this weekend!

However, there are other contenders out there. First of all, we have to go with the Mercedes pairing, both looked strong last weekend in Korea, particularly Nico Rosberg until he fell backwards, but for various dramas and strategy calls they would have had at least one car on the podium.

Before Rosberg’s wing failure, he was just about to pass Lewis Hamilton and look to attack Romain Grosjean’s Lotus in second place. So Mercedes do still have some pace to perhaps at least make it look like a fight for victory, they just have to get it all together which they have failed to do since the summer break. I still feel Mercedes can win a few more races this year.

Hamilton has never won in Suzuka, which for a driver of his ‘calibre’ is a glaring omission from his winning record. Watch for him in practice, if he shines consistently we could be on for a good competitive weekend.

The other team pairing who both have a chance for victory are the Lotus duo of Kimi Raikkonen and Romain Grosjean. Grosjean has outpaced Kimi in qualifying for the last few races, yet the Finn still manages to come out on top during the actual races even if at the last race it was because of safety car circumstance.

Grosjean is increasingly becoming a threat; he is making less mistakes and has now learnt to combine that with the fantastic speed he possesses. Lotus are renowned for being kind to their tyres and that always stands them in good stead for the race. Once again I think Grosjean will be a podium contender. Kimi needs to qualify well to stand a chance of victory, I’m not sure they or anyone else are really on Red Bull’s level unless the tyres are critical, but he’ll certainly be a podium contender wherever he qualifies. This is the man who came from the back in 2005 to win on the last lap.

Of course let’s not forget our one remaining championship contender; Ferrari’s Alonso. If you judge them on their pace in Korea, you have to say there’s no real chance they can beat Vettel, but there’s also no real way they will fall out the top 10 this weekend. In fact with Alonso you can most likely say he’ll be up there for a podium. I think this weekend there will be too many stronger cars, but he’s a definite top six man. If Felipe Massa can put together a good whole weekend, he can also produce the result his pace deserves but his race craft hasn’t over the last few weekends.

And just in case, I don’t want to forget Mark Webber. One day the bad luck he receives will be on the other Red Bull and he has to be ahead or a close second to bask in the good. As I’ve written before, it would be great to see Webber win one more time before his time in Formula 1 is up. He’s still producing the speed, but for various reasons, the whole weekend isn’t coming together.

Other predictions for Japan; I expect Sauber’s good form to continue. They had both cars in the top 10 in qualifying last weekend and then Nico Hulkenberg took every opportunity that came to him and secured a brilliant fourth place. They are looking like heading the midfield at the moment. If the car allows then expect more of the same from the Hulk. Esteban Gutierrez was actually ahead of Hulkenberg at the start but was then pushed wide by a spinning Massa. He ended up 11^th, but I feel Gutierrez’s chance to score a point is fast approaching.

Toro Rosso will want to fight back against Sauber. They are now behind them in the constructors championship despite having a far more consistent season. Daniel Ricciardo retired while in a points position last time out so they are more than capable of still being up there.

I would like to predict that Paul di Resta will get his season back on track. He’s crashed in the last three races and it looks like it’s all falling apart a bit. It’ll only take one result for that to turn, it’s just a question of it the Force India will allow it. On current form I’m not sure it will, perhaps that’s why he’s pushed a bit too far on occasion.

McLaren are a bit forgotten, but I expect more points in the lower reaches of the top 10. While Williams can expect nothing more than a midfield scrap. Caterham and Marussia will continue to fight for the tenth place in the constructors.

So who’s going to win? Well Vettel will win the championship. Who’s going to win the race? More difficult to say, but can you look past a Red Bull when the track suits highly efficient aerodynamics? No, no you can’t. So I’m going to say Lewis Hamilton. Or Kimi Raikkonen. If they don’t then I expect a mesmeric display from Vettel as he steps closer to title number four.

all photo's taken from autosport.com

Hulkenberg stands out after another Vettel win

Why isn’t Nico Hulkenberg signed up for 2014 already? And in a top seat too. Hulkenberg hasn’t had the best of seasons but that is by no means his fault. His Sauber haven’t provided him the car to show his skills off but like in Monza when he finished 5^th, today was a day he showed he could mix it with the top guys.

Starting from seventh on the grid he made a fine start to be ahead of the Ferrari’s as Felipe Massa almost went spinning into Fernando Alonso at turn three. He ran fifth in the early stages, keeping a decent distance behind Nico Rosberg while fending off Alonso’s attacks.

The Ferrari was able to run quite close but then would wash out in some of the slower corners which meant Alonso couldn’t quite manage to make a move stick. At the first safety car caused by the tread on Sergio Perez’s right front tyre ripping off and lying in the middle of the track, Hulkenberg moved right onto the back of Lewis Hamilton’s Mercedes.

At the restart he slip streamed the Mercedes to move his Sauber into fourth spot. Lewis didn’t let Nico have an easy ride though, he fought back hounding the German driver for the rest of the race. Hamilton even managed to slip through using DRS on the start finish straight. However it meant Hulkenberg was now 

perfect behind to use DRS in the longer zone after turn one.

Nico was back ahead, despite a number of attempts Hamilton could just not get back ahead, the traction out of turn one from the Sauber was just awesome and he always managed to pull just enough of a gap from the Mercedes that he couldn’t be touched in that particular DRS zone. As Alonso moved into view behind Lewis, the pressure eased slightly as the Ferrari and Mercedes diced around the track several times. But they never left Nico alone, he had to concentrate fully and used all his defensive skills of which there are plenty and attacked decisively when the opportunity arose.

Hulkenberg can be quite aggressive, but still fair, he’s a driver which should be plying his trade all the time with the likes of Alonso and Hamilton, but unfortunately things haven’t aligned yet for him to be promoted to a top line seat. I wonder what Fernando’s opinion of him as a team mate at Ferrari was? 

I think he would have been quite unsettled to have a young skilled charger as his team mate, perhaps even more than he has been by Kimi’s near arrival.

Hulkenberg still has opportunities at Lotus, and on this performance he more than deserves a shot at the big time. A fine fourth place finish today, and I don’t think that’s the end of this form. Sauber have put some work in and are finally getting their car to perform as evidenced by two cars in the top ten, another Q3 showing from Esteban Gutierrez, although a battling but disappointing 11^th place finish. I expect to see a bit more from Hulkenberg fighting near the front in the closing races.

The duels in the pack

There was some spectacular racing going on in South Korea. Not least some great side by side action from Alonso and Hamilton who fought for fifth place as if they were battling for victory. Alonso had nowhere to go at the start and dropped a place to sixth in which he finished. He was stuck behind Hulkenberg and could never make a move. It was a resigned performance as he knew he was falling further behind in the title race and there was simply nothing he could do. This just wasn’t his weekend.

It looked like it could have been much better for Hamilton. Quickest in the first two practice sessions, it then started to go downhill. He lost out on pole position by two tenths, lost a place to Romain Grosjean at the start to lie third then started suffering from degrading rubber and lost out in the pit stops to let Kimi Raikkonen ahead and finally lost a place to Hulkenberg. All in all it could have been a better day for Lewis, but the days of challenging for victories seem a distant memory.

Further back in the pack there was more spectacular racing as Pastor Maldonado’s Williams held up a train of four cars which all proceeded to pass him in a matter of a couple of corners to drop him out of the points.

Mark Webber was on a charge after his ten place grid drop and wanting to get involved in the action but after a puncture dropped him into the pack at the first safety car restart he was hit by Adrian Sutil’s Force India and then suffered what he thought was a KERS fire. A second safety car was scrambled but not before the bizarre sight of a fire safety vehicle on track with twenty Formula 1 cars still at racing speed powering towards it.

Paul di Resta through his car into the wall for a third consecutive race; it’s really not a good time right now.

Felipe Massa recovered from his spin at the start to battle back up to ninth. The McLaren’s were involved in plenty of scraps with Jenson Button and Perez ending up eighth and tenth. Nico Rosberg was running strongly but suffered a front wing failure as he passed his Mercedes team mate. He had to make a stop for a new nose but recovered to finish seventh.

Lotus double up on the podium

Grosjean was once again the lead Lotus driver this weekend, and once again didn’t get the rub of the tarmac. After Mark Webber’s grid penalty, Grosjean lined up third with Raikkonen suffering another poor qualifying with ninth. But as usual Kimi comes alive in the races.

He was soon hounding Alonso for sixth place and made a great move around the outside to snatch the place. He was re-passed during the first pit stops, but strategy and safety cars worked for the Finn and he found himself in a podium position just behind his team mate.

Grosjean hadn’t let the leader disappear, but nor could he fight him, however he did keep the Red Bull honest. He held Lewis at bay until the Mercedes faded but his work was undone during the safety cars. Kimi made a move as Grosjean slid at turn 15 utilising the start finish DRS zone. Romain couldn’t respond after turn one due to yellow flags and then a second safety car came out. This helped Kimi keep his tyres fresh, they were seven laps older than his team mates.

There was frantic radio discussion as Grosjean asked if he could re-pass. It seemed like he hadn’t expected an attack from Kimi, and then was not sure if he was allowed to have a go back. In the end Kimi kept him at bay, but it’s an interesting situation at Lotus at the moment. You have their star driver who is leaving to go to Ferrari, whereas Grosjean is seeking to establish himself as the man to lead the team. I think he could, but he’s got to control his emotions better in heated times.

There was a winner…

Fourth consecutive win, third win in Korea, another pole position and victory double; Sebastian Vettel can do no wrong at the moment. He was once again in a race of his own, even if the Lotus’ did give him more of a run for his money than at Singapore.

Perfect start, perfect two second gap, little trouble with the tyres, but nothing that would throw him off his stride. It was another perfect performance from the star of the year. He used the Red Bull when he needed to, kept his competitors at bay and stroked the Bull home to his eighth victory of the year.

Make no mistake, the Korean race was a decent watch, the fight for victory though was non-existent. Vettel now takes a 77 point lead into the final five races ahead of Alonso. If Vettel wins and Alonso non scores then the title is over, and we can stop pretending there was ever a battle in the first place. A Superb display once again from the soon to be four time champion.

Final result:

1. Sebastian Vettel - Red Bull

2. Kimi Raikkonen - Lotus

3. Romain Grosjean - Lotus

4. Nico Hulkenberg - Sauber

5. Lewis Hamilton - Mercedes

6. Fernando Alonso - Ferrari

7. Nico Rosberg - Mercedes

8. Jenson Button - McLaren

9. Felipe Massa - Ferrari

10. Sergio Perez - McLaren

11. Esteban Gutierrez - Sauber

12. Valtteri Bottas - Williams

13. Pastor Maldonado - Williams

14. Charles Pic - Caterham

15. Geido van der Garde - Caterham

16. Jules Bianchi - Marussia

17. Max Chilton - Marussia

R. Jean-Eric Vergne - Toro Rosso - mechanical

R. Daniel Ricciardo - Toro Rosso - mechanical

R. Adrian Sutil - Force India - Accident damage

R. Mark Webber- Red Bull - accident/fire

R. Paul di Resta - Force India - accident

all photo's taken from autosport.com