The Canadian Forecast

It’s the Canadian Grand Prix this weekend held at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve in Montreal, so it’s time for a Pablo’s forecast. First of all at the time of writing, it looks like it could be a gloomy qualifying with rain likely, but the race is likely to take place on a dry track. Of course that’s all subject to change as ever.

Canada is a track full of long straights and not overly fast corners, meaning good traction and a good top speed are essential requirements around here. In years gone by we’ve had races dictated by the tyres, not least the 2010 race which served as a benchmark to how the FIA wanted the Pirelli tyres to behave. Canada has a lot to answer for! But in general it has a low grip surface and because of the lack of fast corners the tyres should hold up well, a 1 or 2 stop race is generally the preferred strategy in years gone by.

Pirelli are bringing the medium and super soft tyre to this race, they are not bringing any new compound or construction to be raced. With tyre wear not expected to be too critical this could mean Mercedes are again a major factor. They have been renowned for their straight line speed for a long time now, I fully expect a Mercedes driver to be on pole position again.

However, I’m not sure they’ll have it their own way like they did at Monaco. There it’s never easy to pass so they could dictate the pace, which was very slow in the early laps. In Montreal it’s a much easier place to pass, in fact there probably isn’t any need for a DRS zone, so it's annoying there's two; one on the back straight after the hairpin and the second on the start finish straight.

So with that in mind, if they can’t choose the pace they want to run at I don’t expect the silver cars to be still heading the pack by the end of the race. I do think Lewis Hamilton will show improved form this weekend. He’s been out-qualified by his team mate for three consecutive races and comprehensively out performed for the last two.

He needs to show some form, he was expected to come into the team and dominate it, but Nico Rosberg has already shown one world champion he wasn’t to be messed with, he’s doing the same to Lewis at the moment.

Hamilton is the current king of Montreal though, three times a winner and he always goes well here. If there’s any place for him to start reasserting himself, it’s here. If Nico continues his recent pole run, then the questions which are already being asked about Lewis, will get louder.

Lotus and Ferrari had poor weekends last time out and both will desperately want to get back to the top of the podium. Of these two teams, I see Lotus’ Kimi Raikkonen as the one most likely to take victory.

As I’ve said it’s easier to pass around here, the Lotus is good on its tyres as always so potentially could make a pit stop less than its rivals, and I think judging from past performances would still have the pace to hold any late two stoppers off. Having said that though, Hamilton proved last year making an extra stop was the way forward rather than trying to get to the end. It'll be interesting to see how Lotus approach this, I still think they'll have the edge on race pace as they'll be able to push the tyres harder even if they make the same amount of stops as everyone else.

While we're talking about Lotus expect to see Romain Grosjean bounce back after a torrid weekend in Monaco where he suffered no less than four separate incidents including mounting Daniel Ricciardo’s Toro Rosso. The Frenchman went well in Montreal last year when he finished second, if the race had been a few laps longer he probably would have won.

He needs a complete fast trouble free weekend, and despite the close proximity of the walls around there, this is the track he can do it on. He seems like a decent guy, and extremely fast, it would be a shame if he threw his Formula 1 opportunity away.

Fernando Alonso seemed subdued in Monaco, yes there were a few debris issues hurting the aerodynamics but he was caught out three times by passing moves which normally he would have seen coming.

He’s won once before in Canada but not since 2006. Alonso is more than capable of grabbing a podium here and he needs one if Ferrari is to make use of their best car in ages, they need to cut out the mistakes they weren’t making last year too. They didn’t have the pace in Monaco, they’ll be hoping that that was just blip. They’ll also not want any inexplicable crashes for Felipe Massa.

Of course the chances of a safety car here are extremely high, it’s not often a race in Canada doesn’t have a road going Mercedes heading the pack, and in this case that’s the only way I see Sebastian Vettel winning, or maybe even on the podium. However, he’ll almost certainly be near and definitely in the top 5, he’s been the most consistent out there this year, and I expect this to continue. He’s learnt something from Alonso last year and he just keeps on getting better.

Red Bull has never won here, and I don’t think they will this year either. It’s not a track that requires the huge downforce that an Adrian Newey designed car brings to the table, often over the last few years this is when other teams can come to the fore to steal their glory.

McLaren won’t be winning this year, they’ve taken the last three wins but I don’t think they have a chance. They’re getting better and I think they will again get both cars in the top 10 in Q3, but they’re not going to be repeating past glories any time soon.

Sergio Perez getting the better of Jenson Button again thought? That’s an interesting question and one I shall answer conclusively. No, Button is good around here, he should be the lead driver but I think Perez will be close, maybe even close enough to try a cheeky move which I’m sure will please Button no end.

Perez I’m sure will be talked about again in the drivers briefing but I don’t think he’s done much wrong, perhaps a little over exuberant but nothing dangerous.

My final race prediction is that a Force India will end up on the podium. I know I said this last time but historically in previous guises this team have done well in Montreal and in their current guise they have always been good at fast tracks. I’m going to go with Paul di Resta to take their first podium since Giancarlo Fisichella at the 2009 Belgian Grand Prix.

They’re in a similar situation to Lotus with tyres and could make a one stop work. We’ll see what happens there.

Of course tyre testing will still be a major talking point over the weekend, especially as Ferrari have now been brought into the debate, but seen as they were using a two year old car with a completely different suspension layout I don't really see they have a case to answer like Mercedes who used the current car, and who apparently altered their approach to the tyres after the test in Barcelona. It'll be interesting to see just how well they use the tyres in Canada.

Finally, here’s a few extra teasers, a Marussia or Caterham will finish last, Sauber will improve, a Toro Rosso will get into Q3, Williams will not improve and the title race is set to close up again. Should be an interesting and very open race this weekend, but one I feel Kimi will not be disappointed with.

all photo's from autosport.com