Belgian Forecast

There are nine races to go and four drivers still in the championship fight; time to let battle recommence. What better place to start the second half of the season than at Spa-Francorchamps in Belgium, one of the most fantastic circuits still on the calendar, a true test of man and machine.

Let’s get the weather out of the way first. Friday is hot, Saturday is rain and Sunday is cloudy. It’s going to be a troubling time for the drivers and engineers because as we know predicting the weather in Spa is never an exact science. Neither is predicting the weather in general, but especially so here. It has its own micro climate and those light clouds on race day can easily change it to big threatening black ones loaded with H2O.

It could be a winning gamble if it rains on Saturday to qualify with a wet set up in the hope it’ll stay that way on Sunday. Just as easily it could be one way to fall through the field. It’s going to be exciting times in Belgium as it always is for the Grand Prix.

There are two DRS zones this year, one on the Kemmel Straight after the awesome Eau Rouge and the second one on the start finish straight. To be honest I’m not sure why they have either, this is a track that you can pass on fairly easily, so why make it a mere formality, it seems a shame but it’s just a minor complaint.

Pirelli are bringing the Hard and Medium compound tyres which should be very durable. Spa has a lot of fast corners and puts a great deal of stress into the rubber so despite the change of construction the Italian firm are making there are no repeat of tyre failures over the 44 lap race.

All of which I believe will suit the Red Bull and Mercedes. They have been the out and out fastest cars all season; only tyre difficulties have restrained them during the races. With the tyres now seemingly suiting them a lot better, perhaps we’re about to see a proper head to head between the Bulls and Silver Arrows.

Time for some predictions then; I’m not sure you can look past a Mercedes pole position here and Lewis Hamilton is the man to secure it. Hamilton has been awesome here since his first trip, although the end results haven’t always made that quite clear. He has one pole position and one win, although it should have been two. In my mind at least, Lewis has now firmly gained the upper hand over Nico Rosberg and will be the man to beat here; I can see him controlling the race if all goes to plan.

However there are a few caveats; the new construction tyres suited Mercedes in Hungary under extreme temperatures. This at least suggests that Merc have got their tyre eating issues under control. But we still have to wait and see how they go on a fast circuit like Spa, where there are much faster corners and the tyres will be under more sustained pressure. The harder compounds of tyre should make life easier but it would be wrong to just assume that the Silver team have got it all sorted now. Still, if they’re about to make a championship charge then you’ve got to hope it is.

Sebastian Vettel arrives in Belgium in control of the championship table. He knows he has one of the fastest cars and he knows it should only get better as he can now push the car harder thanks to the redesign of the tyres.

The only question mark is if this tyre change has left them behind Mercedes now. They’ve got a good head start but it might be that they’re going to need it. Hungary certainly showed that Mercedes could maintain a good pace and look after the tyres. However, Vettel was stuck a lot of the time in traffic and wasn’t able to run a clean race. If he hadn’t have been trapped behind Jenson Button for over 10 laps, the result may well have been different and he’d at least have been ahead of Kimi Raikkonen for second place.

Red Bull are going to take some beating, a track like Spa should suit their all-conquering aero and Vettel is in the best form yet. It’s a safe bet Vettel will be on the podium. His team mate Mark Webber has gone well here before too, and he’ll be wanting a trouble free weekend. He’s shown good pace but too often his car has let him down. It’s certainly left Vettel well clear of him in the championship.

Last year Lotus arrived in Belgium with a lot of optimism surrounding them as they looked to capitalise on their consistency. But their development tailed off and they dropped back. This time Lotus are on an upward trajectory again. Double podium in Germany, another second for Kimi in Hungary; two races they also could have won. That’s what they need to do quickly if they’re to make inroads into Vettel. Kimi is a master around Spa, four wins between 2004 -2009 and he could be the surprise winner. I'm sure he'd be bouncing off the walls should he grab victory. Well, maybe a half smile. Well...

Even more so if his team mate can take out half the championship contenders as he did last year. However I’ll make the bold prediction that Romain Grosjean will not attempt to take out half the field. In fact he’s improving his judgement, well some of the time, he has inherent pace and could go well and like other team mates of championship contenders could be a factor in deciding the outcome of the title.

Lotus have tremendous race pace but they still need to qualify better, at Spa grid position isn’t as important and if they want to mount a challenge they need to claim victory soon, where better than Spa? At least if he can keep in front of Vettel that’ll be a start. More results like Hungary where you have two challengers in front of the German will keep this championship alive.

Even better if they can have three but how likely that’ll be is up for debate. Ferrari has fallen back dramatically, and I can’t see the Prancing Horse returning to the top anytime soon. Their developments have been lacking and you can sense the frustration slowly bubbling with Fernando Alonso as he watches another title chance slip away.

I think he’ll be fighting this weekend, but he’ll be lucky to get on the podium; however if anyone can, Fernando can.

I expect McLaren to show some good form, last year Button dominated for them, that’s not going to happen this time but I think they’ll finally usurp Force India from fifth place in the constructors championship.

Force India usually go well here, but since the tyre change, they’ve struggled. There’s no guarantee that they’ll find a solution quickly. Williams are still trying to develop something out of their 2013 car while Toro Rosso are excited about their new aero developments which they hope will push them back towards the front of the midfield. Sauber meanwhile are treading water.

Marussia have just announced a Ferrari engine deal for 2014, but that’s not going to help them now and with the loss of Technical consultant Pat Symonds to Williams, I can’t see them getting back up ahead of Caterham.

One of the best tracks of the year, with some of the most random weather in the world, it’s going to be an exciting weekend as Formula 1 returns.

all photo's taken from autosport.com