Tuesday, 20 August 2013

Vettel's title to lose, Hamilton's to win


Formula 1 is about to return and commence a nine race run over thirteen hectic weeks which will decide the 2013 championship. It’s a four way battle at the moment, with Sebastian Vettel, Kimi Raikkonen, Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamilton fighting for the big prize. But surely it’s already a certainty who’ll win? Vettel heads up the table 38 points clear of his nearest challenger, no one’s going to catch him now.

Well most people thought that about Alonso this time last year. As we headed to Spa-Francorchamps in Belgium Alonso was 40 points ahead and ended up having to settle for the runners up spot once again as Vettel surged ahead in the final races.

That could well happen again, but whereas Ferrari didn’t have the best car, this years Red Bull is certainly one of the fastest out there. It’s not always been able to show it due to conserving the tyres, but since Pirelli changed their construction to be more consistent and durable at the last race in Hungary, the odds on Red Bull wrapping everything up for a fourth straight year were greatly lowered.

Vettel must remain the title favourite when we start the second half of the season. He has been the most consistent performer of the season so far, barely putting a wheel out of place, only a mechanical problem forced him into a retirement at Silverstone. Otherwise he hasn’t finished lower than fourth, such consistency combined with his four victories, double the amount of anyone else, has made him the ultimate 2013 performer and likely title winner.

His main 2012 challengers Alonso and Raikkonen remain the closest to him in 2013, but with notable differences. Whereas last year they had a poor car, Alonso and Ferrari were working in complete harmony and maximising every opportunity that came their way to almost take the title, this year there’s been slightly more discord.

Alonso has made a couple of mistakes and Ferrari hasn’t been operationally sound either. The developments they’re bringing to the track aren’t working, and so they’ve gone from looking like one of the fastest to being merely the fourth best out there.

Not even Alonso can keep on dragging the car to miracle results and you sense there’s a bit of frustration creeping in as he watches his glory years go to waste. There were rumours linking him to the vacant Red Bull seat despite most F1 observers believing he was tied to a Maranello contract until 2016. And Ferrari president Luca di Montezemolo didn’t take kindly when their star driver said he ‘wanted the same car as the others’ as a birthday present.

Before the Schumacher era, Ferrari were often found to fall into disarray if things didn’t go their way, and Alonso has shown before he can throw his toys out of the pram with the best of them. Having said that, there’s also no team with greater experience of winning and no driver who will push to the maximum to achieve what he wants.

They’re not out of the title hunt yet, but unless they are well on the pace on Spa, I can see the rest of the season being more interesting not for how they maintain their title chances, but for how the team and driver relationship develops.

Kimi lies second in the championship and has once again shown great consistency in his Lotus. He’s not one to allow himself to be troubled by off track activities despite the rumours around him concerning the driver market. He’s out of the running for the Red Bull seat now, although there is a significant rumour linking him with a return to Ferrari. Well if you can’t have a Vettel-Kimi line up, it’ll be just as exciting to have an Alonso-Kimi one instead. However his preference remains to extend his time at Lotus if they can prove to him they have the financial means to compete as they are now.

But this will be of little concern to him, what he’ll want is to win more races. And to win more races, Lotus and particularly Kimi need to improve their qualifying performances. The last two races he has finished second after starting fourth then sixth on the grid. If he can get onto the front row, then more race winning opportunities will open for him. Arguably he’s had the fastest race pace for the last two races, but it is not being used thoroughly because he has to work his way up to the front again.

Kimi is still certainly in this title fight, but you do have to wonder whether Lotus really have the resources to be able to compete for an entire season. They dropped off last year, they can’t do that this time, but they need to start winning quickly. After a lull for a few races, at least unlike Ferrari they appear to be heading in the right direction, if they can be near the front at Spa Kimi will be here to play for the rest of the season.

Lewis Hamilton is now the most serious threat to Vettel’s quad title chance. Let’s forget about Mercedes’ secret tyre test and all the palaver surrounding that for a moment. It happened, they didn’t know the tyres and then they missed out on meaningful tyre testing at Silverstone before Hungary. It’s simplified but let’s leave it at that for now.

It was not much later in 2012 that around this time Lewis Hamilton was weighing up whether to seek a new challenge at Mercedes or stay in the bosom of his slightly controlling family at McLaren; with the benefit of hindsight, what a fantastic decision.

Mercedes have grown hugely over the last 10 races, they were almost immediately quick in qualifying (they’ve scored seven pole postions, Rosberg 3; Hamilton 4) but couldn’t make the tyres last yet again in the races. This looks to have been solved.

They were already making progress with this, but as with Red Bull, Mercedes look to have greatly appreciated the tyre changes and look likely to be race contenders for the rest of the year. Just in time for a late championship charge.

With this tyre formula qualifying has been perhaps the only time when you can really see a cars full pace unleashed. With that in mind Mercedes total of 7 poles to Red Bull’s 3 is significant when you think that Mercedes tyre degradation issues might be a thing of the past. Potentially Mercedes look like they could win every race remaining, which is what they need if they want to get anywhere near Red Bull.

We’ll get the definitive answer at Spa where the high speed corners will put extra pressure on how cars look after their tyres. If Mercedes can go well here, then they’re going to be a factor for the rest of the year. They already showed they can last in the extreme heat that Hungary provided, which before might have scuppered their chances.

Meanwhile on the driver front Lewis Hamilton is settling in and getting faster and better as a result. He’s still not fully comfortable in the car, but he’s now finally beginning to assert himself over his team mate Nico Rosberg and has reeled off the last three pole positions while also claiming his first win for the team in Hungary which will just add to his confidence.

He has some personal issues off the track but unlike in previous times he looks to be using this to focus on his racing, from pain perhaps he can create something good for himself. Lewis is focused and determined to make his Mercedes switch work, and right now it looks like it’s coming together. He’s producing exceptional speed in qualifying; his pole laps this year have been sensational. Just think what he’ll be able to do when he’s fully one with the car, Lewis definitely can make a title chance happen.


However, Hamilton is the furthest behind of the championship challengers, 48 points to be exact. Vettel’s not just going to hand out free gifts, he’ll be as consistent and ruthless as he has been all year and will take the best result available to him every time. He isn’t a three time world champion for nothing, and it’s going to take a lot to stop him claiming a fourth.



all photo's taken from autosport.com

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