Formula 1 is about to return and commence a nine race run
over thirteen hectic weeks which will decide the 2013 championship. It’s a four
way battle at the moment, with Sebastian Vettel, Kimi Raikkonen, Fernando
Alonso and Lewis Hamilton fighting for the big prize. But surely it’s already a
certainty who’ll win? Vettel heads up the table 38 points clear of his nearest
challenger, no one’s going to catch him now.
Well most people thought that about Alonso this time last
year. As we headed to Spa-Francorchamps in Belgium Alonso was 40 points ahead
and ended up having to settle for the runners up spot once again as Vettel
surged ahead in the final races.
That could well happen again, but whereas Ferrari didn’t
have the best car, this years Red Bull is certainly one of the fastest out
there. It’s not always been able to show it due to conserving the tyres, but since
Pirelli changed their construction to be more consistent and durable at the
last race in Hungary, the odds on Red Bull wrapping everything up for a fourth
straight year were greatly lowered.
Vettel must remain the title favourite when we start the
second half of the season. He has been the most consistent performer of the
season so far, barely putting a wheel out of place, only a mechanical problem
forced him into a retirement at Silverstone. Otherwise he hasn’t finished lower
than fourth, such consistency combined with his four victories, double the
amount of anyone else, has made him the ultimate 2013 performer and likely
title winner.
His main 2012 challengers Alonso and Raikkonen remain the
closest to him in 2013, but with notable differences. Whereas last year they
had a poor car, Alonso and Ferrari were working in complete harmony and
maximising every opportunity that came their way to almost take the title, this
year there’s been slightly more discord.
Alonso has made a couple of mistakes and Ferrari hasn’t been
operationally sound either. The developments they’re bringing to the track aren’t
working, and so they’ve gone from looking like one of the fastest to being
merely the fourth best out there.
Not even Alonso can keep on dragging the car to miracle results
and you sense there’s a bit of frustration creeping in as he watches his glory
years go to waste. There were rumours linking him to the vacant Red Bull seat
despite most F1 observers believing he was tied to a Maranello contract until
2016. And Ferrari president Luca di Montezemolo didn’t take kindly when their
star driver said he ‘wanted the same car as the others’ as a birthday present.
Before the Schumacher era, Ferrari were often found to fall
into disarray if things didn’t go their way, and Alonso has shown before he can
throw his toys out of the pram with the best of them. Having said that, there’s
also no team with greater experience of winning and no driver who will push to
the maximum to achieve what he wants.
They’re not out of the title hunt yet, but unless they are
well on the pace on Spa, I can see the rest of the season being more interesting
not for how they maintain their title chances, but for how the team and driver
relationship develops.
Kimi lies second in the championship and has once again
shown great consistency in his Lotus. He’s not one to allow himself to be
troubled by off track activities despite the rumours around him concerning the
driver market. He’s out of the running for the Red Bull seat now, although
there is a significant rumour linking him with a return to Ferrari. Well if you
can’t have a Vettel-Kimi line up, it’ll be just as exciting to have an
Alonso-Kimi one instead. However his preference remains to extend his time at
Lotus if they can prove to him they have the financial means to compete as they
are now.
But this will be of little concern to him, what he’ll want
is to win more races. And to win more races, Lotus and particularly Kimi need
to improve their qualifying performances. The last two races he has finished
second after starting fourth then sixth on the grid. If he can get onto the
front row, then more race winning opportunities will open for him. Arguably he’s
had the fastest race pace for the last two races, but it is not being used thoroughly
because he has to work his way up to the front again.
Kimi is still certainly in this title fight, but you do have
to wonder whether Lotus really have the resources to be able to compete for an
entire season. They dropped off last year, they can’t do that this time, but
they need to start winning quickly. After a lull for a few races, at least
unlike Ferrari they appear to be heading in the right direction, if they can be
near the front at Spa Kimi will be here to play for the rest of the season.
Lewis Hamilton is now the most serious threat to Vettel’s
quad title chance. Let’s forget about Mercedes’ secret tyre test and all the palaver
surrounding that for a moment. It happened, they didn’t know the tyres and then
they missed out on meaningful tyre testing at Silverstone before Hungary. It’s
simplified but let’s leave it at that for now.
It was not much later in 2012 that around this time Lewis
Hamilton was weighing up whether to seek a new challenge at Mercedes or stay in
the bosom of his slightly controlling family at McLaren; with the benefit of
hindsight, what a fantastic decision.
Mercedes have grown hugely over the last 10 races, they were
almost immediately quick in qualifying (they’ve scored seven pole postions,
Rosberg 3; Hamilton 4) but couldn’t make the tyres last yet again in the races.
This looks to have been solved.
They were already making progress with this, but as with Red
Bull, Mercedes look to have greatly appreciated the tyre changes and look
likely to be race contenders for the rest of the year. Just in time for a late
championship charge.
With this tyre formula qualifying has been perhaps the only
time when you can really see a cars full pace unleashed. With that in mind
Mercedes total of 7 poles to Red Bull’s 3 is significant when you think that
Mercedes tyre degradation issues might be a thing of the past. Potentially
Mercedes look like they could win every race remaining, which is what they need
if they want to get anywhere near Red Bull.
We’ll get the definitive answer at Spa where the high speed
corners will put extra pressure on how cars look after their tyres. If Mercedes
can go well here, then they’re going to be a factor for the rest of the year.
They already showed they can last in the extreme heat that Hungary provided,
which before might have scuppered their chances.
Meanwhile on the driver front Lewis Hamilton is settling in
and getting faster and better as a result. He’s still not fully comfortable in
the car, but he’s now finally beginning to assert himself over his team mate Nico
Rosberg and has reeled off the last three pole positions while also claiming
his first win for the team in Hungary which will just add to his confidence.
He has some personal issues off the track but unlike in
previous times he looks to be using this to focus on his racing, from pain
perhaps he can create something good for himself. Lewis is focused and
determined to make his Mercedes switch work, and right now it looks like it’s
coming together. He’s producing exceptional speed in qualifying; his pole laps
this year have been sensational. Just think what he’ll be able to do when he’s
fully one with the car, Lewis definitely can make a title chance happen.
However, Hamilton is the furthest behind of the championship
challengers, 48 points to be exact. Vettel’s not just going to hand out free
gifts, he’ll be as consistent and ruthless as he has been all year and will
take the best result available to him every time. He isn’t a three time world
champion for nothing, and it’s going to take a lot to stop him claiming a
fourth.
all photo's taken from autosport.com
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