The German Forecast

About half way round the 34^th lap of the German Grand Prix at Hockenheim we will be exactly at the halfway point of the 2014 world championship. We won’t be there for long, there’s a race to complete, but they could be shooting off into the spray as we anticipate our first wet race for a very long time. It’s about time that we had the unpredictability that a slavering of H20 can do to a piece of tarmac.

Currently the forecast is for very hot days on Friday and Saturday with temperatures reaching as high as 33C. Race day doesn’t get much lower, still pushing the boundaries of a 30C day but couple that with thunderstorms and you’ve got some rather unpleasant racing conditions for the drivers, or some absolutely thrilling conditions if you’re sitting at home.

We’ve got two DRS zones as is mostly the norm these days, the first one on the exit of turn one down to turn two. Then there’s a quick right and left before the second DRS zone a little after turn four. Pirelli are bringing the soft and super-soft compounds to Germany with their Motorsport director Paul Hembery not overly sure how many pit stops the teams will have to make as they’ve not brought the super-soft to this track before. It could all well be superfluous if the track is glistening with rain.

Germany still have the most drivers on the grid with four, one of them a four time champion, so it's strange they're also one of the markets which is losing viewing figures despite a German challenging for the world title again this year not to mention the countries national team being dominant. Hopefully the stands will be full and an air of celebration will be present after the countries world cup win. With such a thrilling season it seems strange areas are losing viewers but that's another blog entirely.

There’s been strange goings on since the British Grand Prix. Charlie Whiting, Chief technical delegate of the FIA has been investigating teams suspension seasons, the Front and Rear Interconnected system (FRIC) that pretty much works like active suspension used to in keeping the car level in corners to create more downforce, to be simplistic.

Although it hasn’t been banned outright, it has been suggested that because the FIA now believe it to be contravention of the rule that requires there to be no movable aerodynamic devices on the car it could be subject to protest from the German race onwards if teams were to keep it on their car and a rival outfit were to protest it.

There was hope that the teams would come to an agreement to not protest each other for the remainder of the season so a proper ban could be put in place for the 2015 season, but as ever with Formula 1, that kind of agreement was always subject to never happening. So what does this mean for the performance of the teams with the most advanced systems?

Well so the F1 press has speculated, not much. Mercedes run the most advanced version so it will be interesting to see if any of their advantage is quelled this weekend. At the time of writing they have not announced that they won’t be using it whereas Red Bull and McLaren have already said they are removing it from their cars. I would suggest that with the likes of Red Bull perhaps finishing third behind two FRIC equipped Mercedes cars that a protest would be forthcoming very quickly unless a team can prove it is not an aerodynamic aid which would be a risky strategy.

Therefore I suggest it is very unlikely any team will be running it this weekend. At the moment we don’t know exactly how much it will or won’t affect certain teams but it’s definitely a story to keep a watch on.

So to the interesting things, such as who’s going to win? Well if I may be so bold, I think a Silver car will win, probably not a McLaren. Mercedes head to Germany having won eight of the nine races so far, they’ve just signed Nico Rosberg to a new multi-year contract and have him leading his team mate Lewis Hamilton by just four points.

Rosberg is turning up with a world cup themed helmet and will be determined to show well at his ‘home’ race, especially after suffering his first retirement at Silverstone. It enabled Lewis to win without a fight he was relishing, so game on once again between the two drivers. With just those four points separating them if Lewis was to win this weekend, wherever Nico finishes would mean he’d lose the championship lead. To lose it on home turf would be quite the blow and with only one other race to go before the summer break, Rosberg will not want to be against such a momentum swing behind Hamilton.

It’ll be close but Lewis does well at this track, he took a great win in 2008 and this track is similar to Canada and Austria, lots of straights and slower corners, despite Rosberg getting the better results Lewis was faster so he should be confident. Having said that Nico has proved this year he is a fighter and does not give up, his desperation to get the car moving at Silverstone is testament to that. This will once again be a close battle between the silver arrow drivers and one I’m sure the Mercedes management are getting increasingly nervous about.

I think Williams will be quietly confident this weekend. They should have won in both Canada and Austria, took a great second place at Silverstone as Valtteri Bottas sliced through the field from 14^th which was particularly noteworthy as it wasn’t supposed to be a track the team would do well on.

I think Hockenheim will suit Bottas and Felipe Massa and I fully expect them to be on the first two rows of the grid. They really are the coming team at the moment, vying with Red Bull to be best of the rest, but in recent races they’ve stolen the advantage. Massa will want a bit of the podium action his team mate has monopolised so far, Bottas is certainly somewho who's in a rich vein of form. It should be noted that Susie Wolff will once again be taking over a car for Friday morning practice. Hopefully she will have more of a run than at Silverstone so she can show what she can do, her progress will be closely followed I’m sure.

Sebastian Vettel comes to Germany suffering his worst half season of Formula 1 ever. He is still being outperformed by Red Bull team mate Daniel Ricciardo and will be desperate to get one over on him at his home race but he’s still not comfortable with the car and the Australian is in great form. I’m not sure podium places are available this time, I think this will be a Mercedes and potentially Williams race, but Red Bull probably have the best chassis on the grid, and when it rains their power deficit becomes less of a problem…

McLaren and Ferrari are suffering terrible seasons. It hasn’t been this bad for the sport’s biggest teams for a long time, but they keep fighting although you have to believe they’re already looking to 2015 despite their protestations that they’re still developing their 2014 cars. If it’s dry they’ll be points contenders if it’s wet then watch out for Jenson Button and Fernando Alonso, it could be their biggest opportunity of the year. Kimi Raikkonen will be back in the second Ferrari after his huge shunt, but whether he’ll ever get a decent weekend this year is still open to debate…a bit.

Force India will be looking to improve their form after an off-colour weekend in Britain, Nico Hulkenberg will want a starring result as I feel he’s beginning to fly a bit under the radar at the moment, while Lotus just want to scrap for points. Such a shame for them and particularly Romain Grosjean who looked like a race winner last year, at least for him he’s putting Pastor Maldonado to shame.

Toro Rosso continue to qualify strongly and then retire although they did get a double points finish last time out. Daniil Kvyat is just awesome, rookie of the year by far and away at the moment, I’m sure before the year is out he’s going to have a run of strong results. If it rains I hope he goes well, it’s always a sign of a top driver.

Sauber will lead the charge from the back which for such an established team is a bit heart breaking for them. Marussia will hope for a mixed up race to see if they can score a couple more points, Jules Bianchi, fresh from testing for Ferrari will look to take a star role while Caterham are in upheaval after their sale.

So to the halfway point we race to, rain or shine, FRIC or no FRIC, this weekend promises to be one of the more unpredictable races of the 2014 season and another step in this thrilling story of how the 2014 world championship was won.

all photo's taken from autosport.com