Thursday, 24 July 2014

The Hungarian Grand Prix Forecast


The Hungaroring hosts the Hungarian Grand Prix, tight and twisty with barely a straight worth the name it used to have a reputation of processional grand prix but over the last few years I think it’s held some pretty great racing.

Certainly the nature of the track can lead to bottlenecks as one driver falls off the pace and starts holding people up. I’m not sure the two DRS zones on the start finish straight and between turns 1 and 2 will help too much. There’s hardly time to open the wing between turns 1 and 2 although it will help to get a driver in position to perhaps attack down the relatively straight bit of track between turn 3 and 4.

Pirelli are bringing the soft and medium tyre this weekend, which as predicted last weekend could be redundant come race day as thunderstorms are meant to hit the track. It’s hot all weekend with temperatures ranging from 29C up 31C, so the tyres are going to take a lot of punishment, but the medium should hold up well once the track is rubbered in.  

It’s potentially a crucial race for the championship. Lewis Hamilton needs to win and once again reassert himself against his Mercedes team mate Nico Rosberg before the four week summer break. Good fortune has not shined on him too much this season despite the five wins and a car which when pushed can be up to two seconds a lap quicker than anything else on the track.

So I suppose it’s a curious thing to say but then when you’re only fighting against one other man for the title of world champion and he’s had less mechanical troubles than you, seems to have faster pit stops a lot of the time and when he makes mistakes in qualifying gets away with it, then that aspect of fortune becomes rather focused.

This weekend Hamilton and Rosberg will battle it out once again to take the momentum into the summer break. It doesn’t even matter which one of them is leading the championship at the end of the race it’s all about the psychological advantage of being the last one to win. If Rosberg wins then Hamilton could be left stewing for four weeks thinking the title is getting away from him.

If Hamilton wins, then for four weeks Rosberg will be metaphorically looking over his shoulder for a charging number 44 silver beast chasing him down thinking he’s going to get him because no matter what Rosberg says, he knows Lewis is the faster driver. Rosberg is driving exceptionally well, but if it came down to just natural talent Lewis would win. Fortunately for him, there’s so much more to it to come out on top.

But as we’re talking about fortune, of any race to go into the summer break with, Lewis must like the fact it’s Hungary. Four times a winner here from seven attempts including the last two years. Last season he out performed Rosberg significantly too, something he will be hoping to replicate this time.

To do that he needs to sort his qualifying out. Overtaking at the Hungaroring isn’t as impossible as some people seem to think but it is more difficult than a lot of other places; it once had the title of Monaco without the walls. Last Saturday looked to be going well, it was Rosberg making the mistakes while Hamilton had put a decent banker lap in and was looking to go faster when his brakes failed.

It wasn’t his fault but it adds to the last few sessions when it has been him making mistakes, he hasn’t had a pole position since the Spanish Grand Prix and that surely must rankle with him. He wants to be perceived as the fastest out there, having this car gives him the opportunity to show just how quick he can be but he hasn’t delivered, in fact Rosberg has out-qualified him 6-4 and that’s something he won’t like, perhaps it’s why he’s been making the mistakes.

Lewis made no secret of his annoyance that Sebastian Vettel was racking up the pole positions simply because in his opinion he had the best car. Now Lewis has that same opportunity and he’s not taking it so far. He wants to dominate Rosberg, but Rosberg is too good for that. Better for Lewis just to concentrate on getting the best out of himself rather than thinking of Nico, I think it only holds him back, at least on the Saturday. Whatever happens, it’s once again going to be a tense atmosphere in the Mercedes garage.

Once again Williams will be looking for their now traditional podium slot this season. They’re now targeting second place in the constructors championship ahead of Red Bull. Previously I might have said that I wouldn’t expect them to do well in Hungary given the fact it’s a high downforce track and they seemed to be lacking earlier in the year.

But I thought that about Silverstone and Valtteri Bottas charged from 14th to second so they’ve made some progress. They’re bringing an update to Hungary which should help them even more, in fact Williams Performance Chief Rob Smedley told autosport that this ‘should allow it to keep up its strong form’.

Felipe Massa will surely be hoping so after three crashes in the last four grand prix. Admittedly you could argue they weren’t really his fault, but he’s the one getting involved in them, not Bottas. A strong weekend and result for Massa and it’ll all be forgotten, it’s about time he got a podium too. Bottas though is on a strong run of form and really showing his potential. He was saying last weekend podiums are not enough anymore, at this this rate of progress could we see Williams occasionally challenge Mercedes for victory this year? Maybe, but probably not here.

Will we get another Fernando Alonso vs the Red Bulls battle? I really hope so, Alonso hasn’t let the lack of a winning car from Ferrari affect his racing, he still gives it everything, as does Sebastian Vettel who despite not winning everything and being beaten by his team mate is still proving how hard he can battle too, just to show he’s still got something while he sorts himself out.

While Daniel Ricciardo in the other Red Bull has shone brightly this year, Alonso even describing the young Australian as brilliant. While these guys are finding it difficult to get into the hunt for wins, the battles they’re having for the lower points places makes you wish they were fighting for the world championship.

I expect more of the same this weekend as despite being over 60 points ahead of Williams, Red Bull have slipped behind them and Alonso’s genius makes sure Ferrari always get a look in somewhere around the top six. With the Red Bull chassis and engine power not so much of an issue in Hungary I actually expect Vettel and Ricciardo to be more of a threat this weekend, I hope Alonso gets pulled along with them.

It would be great if Kimi could also get involved. In Germany he was literally in the centre of some battles, but it looked more like he was just getting in the way. There did look to be some genuine progress though, he topped a practice session and was charging hard before his front wing got squeezed too many times, the damage resulting in poor tyre life. Hopefully we can get two Ferrari’s and two Red Bull’s battling each other this weekend.

It was a shame Kevin Magnussen had that accident with Massa at the first corner in Germany after qualifying so well. Hopefully he’ll be able to continue that form, but I’m not sure McLaren are going to be loving a downforce heavy track, so I guess that means Jenson Button will continue to be a bit gloomy. The other major rookie Daniil Kvyat made his first major mistake last weekend but I feel sure the Toro Rosso driver will bounce back, he has the confidence of youth.

Force India will be racing for the lower half of the points, but I don’t expect the likes of Lotus, Sauber, Marussia or Caterham to be challenging for any points this weekend unless this potential rain does come down heavily. As I said last weekend that would be quite welcome as it’s been a while since we’ve had a wet race, but it’s only rained once at the Hungarian Grand Prix since 1986, so I’m not going to hold my breath.


So Hamilton and Rosberg resume battle, Williams look to charge after them, Alonso vs Red Bull round 3, it’s all looking like another great weekends racing.

all photos taken from autosport.com

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