The Japanese Grand Prix Forecast

The Japanese Grand Prix held at the Suzuka track is a true drivers circuit. Quick changes of direction with daunting corners such a the S curves, the Degners, Spoon and not forgetting 130R which the drivers will hold on through at 200mph. It's the only figure of eight circuit as well, it's little wonder the drivers love it for all 53 laps.

Once a track of championship showdowns, its place on the calendar these days prevent it being the decider but it's still a much looked forward to challenge for the drivers and highly anticipated by the fans. This year with the slashing of down force and higher torque from the power units should see some spectacular driving as they try to keep their machines under control.

There is just one DRS zone in Japan on the start finish straight. The corners come upon you so quickly and the circuit being fairly narrow makes it very difficult to include a second one, not that it's needed anyway, I think that most if not all tracks should only include one DRS zone. Except at Abu Dhabi which is a track which although looking amazing as the sun sets is devoid of any major passing opportunities, but hey, its the double points finale, what better place to hold it...

Pirelli are bringing the medium and hard compound tyres used last at the similarly high speed Silverstone. Strategy is probably going to be two stops but the weather could play a part as at the time of writing it looks like quite the mixed bag. Friday has thunderstorms, qualifying should be dry but cloudy while Sunday could offer us a proper wet race which would be a challenge as the title battle hot's up.

It's the last thing the two title contenders will want as they home into the finishing straight of this titanic battle, they'll want it to be as straightforward as possible. Lewis Hamilton finally got back the lead of the championship for the first time since Spain, lets see if he can keep it longer than a race this time as he bids to crush the hopes of Nico Rosberg.

Rosberg is a man who seems desperately in need of any hope at the moment. Since his collision with Hamilton at Spa it's just not gone right for him. Soundly beaten in Italy and then his race ruined by reliability problems in Singapore for Rosberg this is a must win race to get back the momentum or at least stop Lewis' spiralling out of control. 

But this track is one where Hamilton desperately wants to win. Regarded as a classic it's one of the few he hasn't won and he'd already targeted it even as the champagne dried on his overalls after the Singapore race. Last season as team mates the Mercedes drivers had a poor time but Hamilton was quicker than Rosberg. It's going to be tough for Rosberg to level up again. Lewis looks confident, but the one shining hope is that Lewis has suffered such an up and down season, even career, that you can't ever guarantee how anything will play out.

The one thing each driver will want now is perfect reliability from their Mercedes team. It's becoming a bit of an on-going saga for the team, they seem to have been increasing the number of problems rather than lessening since the start of the season.

Neither driver will be happy if the other one gets a problem through the weekend as if it could happen to him then there's no guarantee it won't happen to their car too. As well as that I think both drivers would like to feel they've won it by themselves, not because of retirements. It's one of the things Mercedes are prioritising, it's already cost them a lot of points. Lucky for them they have such an advantage, but looking forward to next season as all teams will be by now, they'll want to work out their troubles sooner rather than later as by 2015 a few teams may well have caught up.

One team hoping to catch the Silver Arrows a bit earlier is Williams. They come to Japan with a major update and with confidence from Singapore in what they described as operationally the best the team has been. They've often been the main challenger to Mercedes this year but they haven't managed to get the wins that Red Bull have when they've been second best. 

Perhaps this race is an opportunity for the Martini backed squad to get to the top step of the podium with Felipe Massa more likely than Valtteri Bottas to secure it on recent form. I can't see it, I'm not sure their update is going to get rid of all their downforce troubles and they don't only have to contend with Mercedes but with Red Bull too.

Red Bull have arguably the best chassis on the grid, let down only by the Renault power unit which is steadily getting better. If the development regulations for engines are unfrozen next season they may be on level par quicker than expected as well as Ferrari. But that's beside the point, the twists and turns of Suzuka are tailor made for Sebastian Vettel and Daniel Ricciardo to exploit their cars, they may just spring a surprise.

Vettel is getting better and even Ricciardo feels they're operating equally now. However I still feel that Vettel is uncomfortable in the car but then again he did beat Ricciardo in Singapore to get his best result of the season. Ricciardo was afflicted with technical problems though, so if they are on equal footing now it'll be fascinating to see if Vettel can continue to re-assert himself within the team.

Ferrari should have had a much better result in Singapore than they ended up with. Kimi Raikkonen looked on it but various factors meant he couldn't exploit his pace. Fernando Alonso lost out in the safety car. But after looking like potentially the second best team, they're going to drop back again in Japan. Kimi says he is now feeling more at one with his car but that'll make little difference as they try to get third off Williams in the constructors.

Alonso is confident they can, but I fail to see the reason why. Maybe he just needs to believe that as this season has been a total write-off for the double champion. It's not been as bad as McLaren who still lurk behind Force India in the teams title race. Both Mercedes powered teams will hope for positive results. McLaren blew a decent result last time out when Jenson Button's car failed him and Kevin Magnussen nearly got cooked leaving Force India to pick up the pieces. 

Nico Hulkenberg and Sergio Perez have been off the pace in qualifying recently but their race pace is still ok. However, they are losing ground and I do expect McLaren to have the beating of them by the end of the year. The fact I'm writing about McLaren in this situation shows how far they have fallen.

Lotus will want to add a few points, Sauber will just want a point while Marussia look to hang on. Toro Rosso are debuting teenage sensation Max Verstappen in first practice. Despite turning 17 recently all eyes will be on him as he becomes the youngest driver to compete in a Grand Prix weekend. I'm not sure they'll put him on fast runs but it'll be interesting to see how he stacks up against their most recent young driver graduate Daniil Kvyat.

Despite protestations to the contrary it's not certain that Caterham will even compete this weekend due to financial difficulties. So the rumours go, a number of items were seized by bailiffs including the new front wing Caterham had hope would lift them above Marussia. These rumours go so far as to suggest staff were asked to leave the factory premises in Leafield. The team have issued a statement saying the rumours are 'unfounded and unsubstantiated...all operations are currently in place at Leafield and the race team is doing its preparation in Japan'. At least they still haven't manage to see Kamui Kobayashi's seat for his home Grand Prix.

Whether true or not it brings into sharper focus the recent talks about third cars for some of the top teams. Over the past few weeks there has been some debate about three car teams if the grid were to fall below 20 cars. With the potential demise of Caterham and other outfits known to be struggling these talks could be come a reality sooner rather than later.

I don't think that should happen at all, it would just end up as a two or three make championship, defeating the point of Formula 1. The weighting of the money given to teams is vastly one sided with the rich teams simply getting richer and creating a chasm between the haves and the never hads. Of course FOM and F1 owners CVC get a lot of money too, probably too much. The only difference in the money the teams receive should be the prize money they get at the end of the year and then you'd have a sustainable sport which can quit worrying about if a team drops out and then they can all compete on a more level footing...such things are but dreams in the world of F1.

The radio ban on drivers receiving help lessened as the weekend went on and there were some decidedly helpful messages during the weekend, but in the end it didn't effect much and I really don't see what the fuss is about. The drivers are still driving they're just using everything they can to make themselves faster, like they've always done.

Interesting talking points, intense competition in the pack behind Mercedes and a thrilling title battle heading towards the final quarter. Japan has the makings of an unmisable race.

all photos taken from autosport.com