One more chance before the racing begins

The third and final test of the winter before the Australian Grand Prix opener is about to begin, taking place from the 27^th February to the 2^nd March in Bahrain. This is one final chance for all the teams to perfect their cars in readiness for the racing to begin. Now, I’m not sure any team will really be ready, even Mercedes who have had a good winter are still encountering problems, although it has to be said not nearly as many as some teams.

Renault powered teams

All eyes will be on Red Bull as they strive for some meaningful mileage before Melbourne. All the Renault powered teams have had struggles, with perhaps Lotus looking the quickest out of the four, Caterham the most reliable and Red Bull and Toro Rosso just not getting anywhere fast.

But that doesn’t really say very much, in fact as much as times don’t mean anything when your lap times are over five, six or seven seconds off the pace surely alarm bells are ringing? Admittedly with the reliability issues these teams have been suffering, going all out in a qualifying simulation isn’t going to be high on the agenda. First of all they need to be able to finish a race, that’s the only way you’ll pick up prizes.

I’m afraid so far none of them have looked quick, or even given us a flash of speed. I’ve no doubt Red Bull at least will find solutions, but I hope it’ not too late for them to be involved in the title fight. It would be much more satisfying to see Red Bull beaten while challenging for wins. Then again the 2014 fight began almost two years ago such was the huge regulation changes and at the moment it looks like they just haven’t done as good a job? The second Bahrain test is crucial if we are going to see any progress.

Mercedes powered teams

Testing is meaningless, we all get that. But some things become patently obvious given enough evidence. What we’ve learnt so far is that the Mercedes engine cars are in a good position. No, let me add a little flair to that, they’re in another reality compared to most other teams, where power units work, with speed and reliability, where race simulations are a possibility and set up is being refined and out and out raw speed is beginning to be demonstrated.

It’s been a good start for the Mercedes powered lot, all four teams haven’t suffered with too much reliability troubles and all have made progress and topped the time sheets at some point over the eight days of testing we’ve had so far.

The Mercedes works team have been demonstrably the most reliable and fastest of all the teams so far. Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg both set times at the first Bahrain test which were simply out of reach of the others.  

It isn’t too much of a surprise, they’ve been concentrating on their 2014 car for quite some time, and it’s been long rumoured that the power unit was going to be a star. Also it should be noted that last time there was a significant rules change in 2009, in their former guise of Brawn, they exploited loop holes to become world champions.

It’s already looking like it could be a Hamilton vs Rosberg season for the championship. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves, there will be challengers. One of which is McLaren who look to have put the extremely poor 2013 season firmly behind them. With former team principal Ron Dennis back with a hand on the race team and former Lotus boss Eric Boullier effectively replacing Martin Whitmarsh, it’s all change at the Woking squad.

At the moment it all looks for the better, as they appear to be the only ones capable of challenging Mercedes with both Jenson Button and rookie Kevin Magnussen showing some good speed and consistency. They will want to make full use of what looks like the best power unit out there and gain one last title with the German manufacturer (built in Britain) before switching to Honda in 2015.

Williams have made great progress and with the addition of Rob Smedley from Ferrari as well as a host of other technical people, they are building themselves up after years in the wilderness. Nico Hulkenberg’s return to Force India looks like a good choice too. In fact at the moment all four teams look good, surely this test for them is about working on set up and race simulations? This final test will tell us more but at the moment it wouldn’t be so much of a surprise to see all these teams in the top 10 after qualifying which would be a great shuffle of the order. As I said before let’s not get ahead of ourselves, but it’s fun isn’t it?

Ferrari powered units

Sauber have occasionally looked quick once they’d got their updates on at the second test, but apparently they have issues with the fly by wire braking system for the rear of the car, Adrian Sutil stating that he can’t get much feel for it. The other Ferrari customer, Marussia, were making noises about getting into Q2, but so far they haven’t been able to demonstrate nearly enough reliability or speed with an apparent computer virus upsetting them at the last test.

Ferrari look to have decent reliability, so in this final test they’ll be wanting to extract a bit more performance. You can’t judge testing but you would have thought they would have shown a sign that they’re going to be challenging for race wins from the start.

I’m not sure they will but this final test will give us further indication if they’re going to be going for the title or annoying Fernando Alonso as he tries to get that elusive third title. If the car doesn’t have the speed expect Alonso to be getting more annoyed with the team than any challenge he can expect from new team mate Kimi Raikkonen, the last Ferrari world champion.

We’re not going to see the true pecking order until qualifying gets underway in Australia, but this  final test will at least show us what we might expect. At the moment Mercedes and their customers lead the way for me, with Ferrari sort of lurking. Despite their problems I think Red Bull will show some speed by the end of the test which will make the rest sit up and take notice, while Lotus will do the same thing. The other Ferrari and Renault customers are making up the back at the moment.

But that can all change, this final test in Bahrain is certainly one to watch very carefully as we look for answers before Australia.

all photo's taken from autosport.com

Will Vettel struggle in 2014?

With the racing yet to even start, the leaders of Formula 1 for the past four years already find themselves on the back foot. Red Bull completed just 20 laps in the first test at Jerez and just 116 laps at the next test in Bahrain. In comparison the leaders of the winter, Mercedes, completed 309 and 315 laps respectively.

It doesn’t help that there hasn’t even been a hint of the pace we’ve come to expect from Red Bull in recent times while Mercedes have been toward the top of the charts in practically every day of testing so far.

These problems have mostly come down to the new turbo Renault power unit which has suffered from heating issues amongst other things while Adrian Newey has once again made the Red Bull as compact as possible to the exclusion of cooling which apparently the Renault needs a fair amount of.

Obviously these problems are being sorted as quickly as possible, but even if the team sort out their car, Renault say they are weeks behind the development of Ferrari let alone the pace setting Mercedes powered teams. Rumours go they may be even further behind than that.

It’s not often that Sebastian Vettel has had to struggle in his Grand Prix career, or worse be faced with a car that might not be competitive. This situation could about to become a reality as he tries to equal Michael Schumacher’s record of five titles in a row.

At times when the car has not been fully optimised Vettel’s former team mate Mark Webber was often able to equal or better the German. Certainly in 2010 they were matched for almost all the season until the exhaust blown diffuser came on stream to give Vettel a decisive advantage as only he could fully exploit the driving style required.

After dominating 2011, 2012 started out with Red Bull struggling slightly and again Webber was back on terms after being comprehensively outperformed the previous year. What I’m suggesting is that when the car is less able to perform at its maximum, Vettel is not as able to drag that car to results as well as others like Fernando Alonso or Lewis Hamilton might. On the other hand when a car is performing well, I don’t think anyone can get the best out of it as well as Vettel.

But it’s all change in 2014, the blown diffusers are a thing of the past. What made Vettel so special in these years was that he was perhaps the finest in the art of counter intuitive driving, getting on the throttle to blow the exhaust gases on to the diffuser to create more downforce while usually you wouldn’t be touching the right pedal.

This technology is gone and with it one of the biggest advantages Red Bull and Vettel had. He was also the best at using the high degradation Pirelli tyres. With the new engines having so much more torque Pirelli have rightly gone conservative for this year, so another advantage of Vettel has been taken away.

It’ll be interesting to see how his new team mate Daniel Ricciardo gets on. He is there to make an impression, it’s the biggest opportunity of his career so far and he’ll want to make the most of it. If Vettel struggles, Ricciardo could well take advantage. However, I just can’t see this happening.

Let’s not get carried away with the Red Bull struggles just yet, this is a mere hypothesis about what could happen. Red Bull have Newey and a great team which will be working on how to solve their current problems 24/7, if they’re not competitive now, they certainly will be at some point.

And as I have written before, to me Vettel more than proved he had learned to get results from a less than perfect car, like in the first half of 2013 where let us not forget it was a lot closer than the end result would have you believe. Vettel was never out of the top four in that first half and scored wins he really shouldn’t have. That part of the season really showed that perhaps the issues that were once there had been eliminated.

The year is all up in the air still, but one thing is certain Red Bull are not going to be cruising away with this one and Vettel will be tested to the limit but there’s little doubt that he’s more than up to the task. If anything it’ll make him better and more determined to get back to the top such is his will to win and when Red Bull get it right, which they will, Vettel will be there to exploit it.

all photo's taken from autosport.com

It's time to get serious for Fomula 1 2013

If you watched the end of the last pre-season test you can’t have failed to get excited. Practically all the cars were out on track, some doing late race simulations, some doing a qualifying run, some piling into the pits for pit stop practice.

This was their last chance at getting track time before the teams ship out to Australia for the first race of the 2013 season. Yes in a week and half, 16 weeks since Sebastian Vettel secured his third straight title the lights will have gone out and they’ll be racing on the edge for the 64^th Formula 1 world championship.

So which teams seem to have used their winter down time the best? Most teams appear to have gone for an evolution of their 2012 car, what with the dramatic rule changes that 2014 will bring, this seems to be the most sensible option rather than opting for a whole new design concept.

Testing is never going to give you a clear picture of who is doing what. Most teams will run variable fuel loads. Even when fitting the softest tyre compound for a short run, you don’t actually know just how much they’ve filled up the car, no one wants to reveal their hand too early; secrecy is everything in testing.

Tyres are going to be a big talking point again, Pirelli have brought a new construction of their compounds and in the colder temperatures of winter testing degradation has been high. In warmer conditions they should last a bit longer, but still expect a few extra pit stops. Anyway after keeping a beady eye on proceedings and scouring the F1 press, I think there are a few assumptions that can be made.

Red Bull lead the way

First of all, it’s looks like it’s going to be close, very close. Last year’s champions Red Bull look like they might have the edge and they’ll certainly start this year more competitive than last, despite Vettel’s assertion that they still have a lot of work to do and cannot be sure just how good the car is as the tyres are making definite conclusions difficult.

When running though, the car just looks bolted to the road like no other. Technical director Adrian Newey will always be the first to the find the last ounce of down force and I don’t think you can look past Red Bull as the team to beat at the moment. There were suggestions that after the effort spent on grabbing the title in 2012, they may have taken their eye off the ball this year. I don’t think so, they’ll be there, they already had a good package and I think they’ll fly. Expect Vettel and Mark Webber to be near the top of the time sheets in Melbourne.

Ferrari start stronger

Ferrari is way ahead compared to where they were this time last year. They were shocking at the start of last year but things look to be coming together for them better this year. It still doesn’t seem like they’ve solved all their problems. In their test coverage Sky pointed out that the Ferrari seemed to be suffering a few tractions problems which won’t help them with looking after their tyres.

But as last year proved Fernando Alonso just needs a car near the pace to get involved in the title battle and they’ve made a much better start for 2013. Alonso himself feels confident and has said he’ll be better than last year. That’s enough to send shivers down the spines of his rivals. Felipe Massa looks confident too, he’ll be hoping to put Alonso under a bit of pressure, and when it’s from a team mate the Spaniard doesn’t always take it too well.

The closest challengers

However, the closest teams to Red Bull at the moment appear to be Lotus and Mercedes. Again analysis from Sky seemed to suggest that they might be slightly off Red Bull’s qualifying pace, but in race pace simulations they’re more than a match.

That bodes well for both teams. Kimi Raikkonen was arguably the most consistent of all drivers last year despite two years off, so with one year of experience back I expect him to be even quicker and lead the team to a few more victories.

Championship challenger? It remains to be seen, but I wouldn’t not back him to be in the hunt. Romain Grosjean has one lifeline left, too many crashes at the start of the season and it’ll be game over, but he’s quick enough to win, and so is the car. At the moment the black and gold cars look to be the main challengers to Red Bull victory.

Lewis Hamilton has to be pleased with the work done so far on his Mercedes. 

Certainly the car looks quick over one lap, and fairly consistent over a race run. There still seem to be issues with tyre degradation though, which after last year is something you’d have thought they’d have corrected.

Still Lewis said he’d be happy with points but I’d be surprised if both he and Nico Rosberg aren’t fighting for wins on occasion and perhaps more consistently than that.

McLaren looking inconsistent

McLaren are the only team to have started with a new design concept. Strange really as they pretty much had the fastest car last year, and definitely ended the season quicker than anyone else. You would have thought continue along that theme, but apparently not.

It was quick out of the box, but Jenson Button has pointed out it is quick one lap, not so quick the next. They seem to be having trouble working out just how to get the best out of their new car. It is also taking them a while to alter set up due to having changed their suspension layout from a push-rod to a pull-rod, copying Ferrari along this line of thinking. But it does result in extra time needing to be taken to make changes.

McLaren will be near the top, they always are but I have a feeling it’ll be a bit hit and miss. They also need their drivers Button and newcomer Sergio Perez to lift their game in qualifying, both often underperformed in 2012. However, Australia is an odd track and often doesn’t lay out the definitive pecking order so don’t be surprised to see Button win as he has done for 3 out of the last 4 years.

Tight in the midfield

The midfield pack looks close again. With only minor changes to the regulations we could be in line for a few more surprise results from the lower order teams as they have far more to gain than the bigger teams who will already have pushed these rules to the limit.

I believe Williams head the pack here, Pastor Maldonado and Valtteri Bottas are exciting by the gains made by the Oxfordshire squad. Really they should have been probably sixth in the constructors last year instead of eighth given their pace most of the year, but some drivers will crash a lot!

I think if they’ve gone the right way, they could again pluck out a victory. Force India I think lead Sauber, who look a bit unsure of themselves. With Adrian Sutil back for Force India together again with Paul di Resta, I see this team developing far quicker than Sauber who have a rookie in Esteban Gutierrez and Nico Hulkenberg who is a star, but can he alone moved the team forward.

Don’t really see why he left Force India to be honest, if anything he might have dropped down the pecking order. Toro Rosso look like they’ll be more of a challenger this year, they’ve set some impressive times and look consistent.

At the back

No change at the back really apart from the loss of HRT and Marussia looking much quicker than Caterham who say their main new package will come for the 5^th round in Spain. So a little change then.

Marussia will also be running KERs for the first time this season, sourced from Williams. It’s already making a difference. Both teams though are running pretty much all rookie drivers with the exception of Charles Pic who has one years worth of experience. I know times are tough but the loss of Timo Glock for Marussia and Heikki Kovalainen for Caterham is surely going to be a big blow if they want to develop further, but when you need money I guess. Points? No, I don’t think so.

Rash title predictions

So there it is; the main point to make is that it will be close. Early title predictions would be stupid so here are mine. A Vettel and Alonso battle to the end would be great as their rivalry intensifies. I think we can safely say these two will be involved in some way. So that’s not rash that’s just predictable.

A more reckless forecast I think is Kimi. He hasn’t had the best of testing seasons, but he’s a no nonsense kind of guy and this won’t affect him. I think he is a realistic contender, no not even that, he will be a championship challenger. Lewis Hamilton is the quickest out there and despite the softly softly approach and how poor Mercedes got last year, they look to have made giant strides in performance; Hamilton as an outside optimistic bet.

No one from McLaren? Jenson Button hates an uncertain car, he needs confidence so if they are unsure of how to access its potential, that’s not a good sign. However, if they do and they had the foresight to build it more for Button, then he can be great.

Testing is over, next stop Melbourne, Australia where the lights go out and Formula 1 2013 is go and the answers revealed, it’s going to be awesome.

all photo's taken from autosport.com