The Japanese Forecast

The Japanese Grand Prix is pretty much beloved by all; the Suzuka is a fantastic track with a great fan base and atmosphere. Japan used to be one of the last couple of races of the year, invariably that meant it would be the host of a championship decider. Many drivers have won here to cement their name in the Formula 1 hall of fame to join the likes of Senna, Prost, Hakkinen and Schumacher who have secured their glory here.

It doesn’t happen so often now. After Japan there will still be four races to go. In fact the only driver who has manage to win the championship here in recent years is Sebastian Vettel in 2011, when he was on an equally dominant run as this year has turned out to be. And it’s here again that he has his first opportunity to wrap up the title.

If Vettel wins and Fernando Alonso finishes ninth or lower, the title is secure for the fourth year in a row. However it is by no means guaranteed that Vettel will win, despite it seeming like after four consecutive wins. It’s also highly unlikely that Alonso will finish outside the top six. No, the likelihood is the championship will appear to still be alive in to the Indian Grand Prix two weeks later.

Of course, this race isn’t just about the championship, there is an actual race up for grabs and that is more open than it might seem. First off, the simple things; the weather is meant to bring some rain with it over the weekend. Particularly at the time of writing, Friday and Saturday are meant to be wet, making qualifying a potential lottery which could spice up the race. Sunday however is dry, which means anyone out of position will have the opportunity to fight back.

There is only one DRS zone at Suzuka on the start finish straight. It’s not overly long, and it doesn’t make as big a difference as some other DRS zones. The tyres Pirelli have brought are the medium and hard tyre compounds, so you wouldn’t expect degradation to be too significant here, despite its blend of medium and fast corners which puts extra strain on the tyres.

Let’s put it out there now and say if you don’t predict that Sebastian Vettel and Red Bull will be contenders for pole and victory, you’d be pretty silly. Winner in three of the last four races here, Vettel is most certainly a driver to keep your eye on this weekend!

However, there are other contenders out there. First of all, we have to go with the Mercedes pairing, both looked strong last weekend in Korea, particularly Nico Rosberg until he fell backwards, but for various dramas and strategy calls they would have had at least one car on the podium.

Before Rosberg’s wing failure, he was just about to pass Lewis Hamilton and look to attack Romain Grosjean’s Lotus in second place. So Mercedes do still have some pace to perhaps at least make it look like a fight for victory, they just have to get it all together which they have failed to do since the summer break. I still feel Mercedes can win a few more races this year.

Hamilton has never won in Suzuka, which for a driver of his ‘calibre’ is a glaring omission from his winning record. Watch for him in practice, if he shines consistently we could be on for a good competitive weekend.

The other team pairing who both have a chance for victory are the Lotus duo of Kimi Raikkonen and Romain Grosjean. Grosjean has outpaced Kimi in qualifying for the last few races, yet the Finn still manages to come out on top during the actual races even if at the last race it was because of safety car circumstance.

Grosjean is increasingly becoming a threat; he is making less mistakes and has now learnt to combine that with the fantastic speed he possesses. Lotus are renowned for being kind to their tyres and that always stands them in good stead for the race. Once again I think Grosjean will be a podium contender. Kimi needs to qualify well to stand a chance of victory, I’m not sure they or anyone else are really on Red Bull’s level unless the tyres are critical, but he’ll certainly be a podium contender wherever he qualifies. This is the man who came from the back in 2005 to win on the last lap.

Of course let’s not forget our one remaining championship contender; Ferrari’s Alonso. If you judge them on their pace in Korea, you have to say there’s no real chance they can beat Vettel, but there’s also no real way they will fall out the top 10 this weekend. In fact with Alonso you can most likely say he’ll be up there for a podium. I think this weekend there will be too many stronger cars, but he’s a definite top six man. If Felipe Massa can put together a good whole weekend, he can also produce the result his pace deserves but his race craft hasn’t over the last few weekends.

And just in case, I don’t want to forget Mark Webber. One day the bad luck he receives will be on the other Red Bull and he has to be ahead or a close second to bask in the good. As I’ve written before, it would be great to see Webber win one more time before his time in Formula 1 is up. He’s still producing the speed, but for various reasons, the whole weekend isn’t coming together.

Other predictions for Japan; I expect Sauber’s good form to continue. They had both cars in the top 10 in qualifying last weekend and then Nico Hulkenberg took every opportunity that came to him and secured a brilliant fourth place. They are looking like heading the midfield at the moment. If the car allows then expect more of the same from the Hulk. Esteban Gutierrez was actually ahead of Hulkenberg at the start but was then pushed wide by a spinning Massa. He ended up 11^th, but I feel Gutierrez’s chance to score a point is fast approaching.

Toro Rosso will want to fight back against Sauber. They are now behind them in the constructors championship despite having a far more consistent season. Daniel Ricciardo retired while in a points position last time out so they are more than capable of still being up there.

I would like to predict that Paul di Resta will get his season back on track. He’s crashed in the last three races and it looks like it’s all falling apart a bit. It’ll only take one result for that to turn, it’s just a question of it the Force India will allow it. On current form I’m not sure it will, perhaps that’s why he’s pushed a bit too far on occasion.

McLaren are a bit forgotten, but I expect more points in the lower reaches of the top 10. While Williams can expect nothing more than a midfield scrap. Caterham and Marussia will continue to fight for the tenth place in the constructors.

So who’s going to win? Well Vettel will win the championship. Who’s going to win the race? More difficult to say, but can you look past a Red Bull when the track suits highly efficient aerodynamics? No, no you can’t. So I’m going to say Lewis Hamilton. Or Kimi Raikkonen. If they don’t then I expect a mesmeric display from Vettel as he steps closer to title number four.

all photo's taken from autosport.com

Hulkenberg stands out after another Vettel win

Why isn’t Nico Hulkenberg signed up for 2014 already? And in a top seat too. Hulkenberg hasn’t had the best of seasons but that is by no means his fault. His Sauber haven’t provided him the car to show his skills off but like in Monza when he finished 5^th, today was a day he showed he could mix it with the top guys.

Starting from seventh on the grid he made a fine start to be ahead of the Ferrari’s as Felipe Massa almost went spinning into Fernando Alonso at turn three. He ran fifth in the early stages, keeping a decent distance behind Nico Rosberg while fending off Alonso’s attacks.

The Ferrari was able to run quite close but then would wash out in some of the slower corners which meant Alonso couldn’t quite manage to make a move stick. At the first safety car caused by the tread on Sergio Perez’s right front tyre ripping off and lying in the middle of the track, Hulkenberg moved right onto the back of Lewis Hamilton’s Mercedes.

At the restart he slip streamed the Mercedes to move his Sauber into fourth spot. Lewis didn’t let Nico have an easy ride though, he fought back hounding the German driver for the rest of the race. Hamilton even managed to slip through using DRS on the start finish straight. However it meant Hulkenberg was now 

perfect behind to use DRS in the longer zone after turn one.

Nico was back ahead, despite a number of attempts Hamilton could just not get back ahead, the traction out of turn one from the Sauber was just awesome and he always managed to pull just enough of a gap from the Mercedes that he couldn’t be touched in that particular DRS zone. As Alonso moved into view behind Lewis, the pressure eased slightly as the Ferrari and Mercedes diced around the track several times. But they never left Nico alone, he had to concentrate fully and used all his defensive skills of which there are plenty and attacked decisively when the opportunity arose.

Hulkenberg can be quite aggressive, but still fair, he’s a driver which should be plying his trade all the time with the likes of Alonso and Hamilton, but unfortunately things haven’t aligned yet for him to be promoted to a top line seat. I wonder what Fernando’s opinion of him as a team mate at Ferrari was? 

I think he would have been quite unsettled to have a young skilled charger as his team mate, perhaps even more than he has been by Kimi’s near arrival.

Hulkenberg still has opportunities at Lotus, and on this performance he more than deserves a shot at the big time. A fine fourth place finish today, and I don’t think that’s the end of this form. Sauber have put some work in and are finally getting their car to perform as evidenced by two cars in the top ten, another Q3 showing from Esteban Gutierrez, although a battling but disappointing 11^th place finish. I expect to see a bit more from Hulkenberg fighting near the front in the closing races.

The duels in the pack

There was some spectacular racing going on in South Korea. Not least some great side by side action from Alonso and Hamilton who fought for fifth place as if they were battling for victory. Alonso had nowhere to go at the start and dropped a place to sixth in which he finished. He was stuck behind Hulkenberg and could never make a move. It was a resigned performance as he knew he was falling further behind in the title race and there was simply nothing he could do. This just wasn’t his weekend.

It looked like it could have been much better for Hamilton. Quickest in the first two practice sessions, it then started to go downhill. He lost out on pole position by two tenths, lost a place to Romain Grosjean at the start to lie third then started suffering from degrading rubber and lost out in the pit stops to let Kimi Raikkonen ahead and finally lost a place to Hulkenberg. All in all it could have been a better day for Lewis, but the days of challenging for victories seem a distant memory.

Further back in the pack there was more spectacular racing as Pastor Maldonado’s Williams held up a train of four cars which all proceeded to pass him in a matter of a couple of corners to drop him out of the points.

Mark Webber was on a charge after his ten place grid drop and wanting to get involved in the action but after a puncture dropped him into the pack at the first safety car restart he was hit by Adrian Sutil’s Force India and then suffered what he thought was a KERS fire. A second safety car was scrambled but not before the bizarre sight of a fire safety vehicle on track with twenty Formula 1 cars still at racing speed powering towards it.

Paul di Resta through his car into the wall for a third consecutive race; it’s really not a good time right now.

Felipe Massa recovered from his spin at the start to battle back up to ninth. The McLaren’s were involved in plenty of scraps with Jenson Button and Perez ending up eighth and tenth. Nico Rosberg was running strongly but suffered a front wing failure as he passed his Mercedes team mate. He had to make a stop for a new nose but recovered to finish seventh.

Lotus double up on the podium

Grosjean was once again the lead Lotus driver this weekend, and once again didn’t get the rub of the tarmac. After Mark Webber’s grid penalty, Grosjean lined up third with Raikkonen suffering another poor qualifying with ninth. But as usual Kimi comes alive in the races.

He was soon hounding Alonso for sixth place and made a great move around the outside to snatch the place. He was re-passed during the first pit stops, but strategy and safety cars worked for the Finn and he found himself in a podium position just behind his team mate.

Grosjean hadn’t let the leader disappear, but nor could he fight him, however he did keep the Red Bull honest. He held Lewis at bay until the Mercedes faded but his work was undone during the safety cars. Kimi made a move as Grosjean slid at turn 15 utilising the start finish DRS zone. Romain couldn’t respond after turn one due to yellow flags and then a second safety car came out. This helped Kimi keep his tyres fresh, they were seven laps older than his team mates.

There was frantic radio discussion as Grosjean asked if he could re-pass. It seemed like he hadn’t expected an attack from Kimi, and then was not sure if he was allowed to have a go back. In the end Kimi kept him at bay, but it’s an interesting situation at Lotus at the moment. You have their star driver who is leaving to go to Ferrari, whereas Grosjean is seeking to establish himself as the man to lead the team. I think he could, but he’s got to control his emotions better in heated times.

There was a winner…

Fourth consecutive win, third win in Korea, another pole position and victory double; Sebastian Vettel can do no wrong at the moment. He was once again in a race of his own, even if the Lotus’ did give him more of a run for his money than at Singapore.

Perfect start, perfect two second gap, little trouble with the tyres, but nothing that would throw him off his stride. It was another perfect performance from the star of the year. He used the Red Bull when he needed to, kept his competitors at bay and stroked the Bull home to his eighth victory of the year.

Make no mistake, the Korean race was a decent watch, the fight for victory though was non-existent. Vettel now takes a 77 point lead into the final five races ahead of Alonso. If Vettel wins and Alonso non scores then the title is over, and we can stop pretending there was ever a battle in the first place. A Superb display once again from the soon to be four time champion.

Final result:

1. Sebastian Vettel - Red Bull

2. Kimi Raikkonen - Lotus

3. Romain Grosjean - Lotus

4. Nico Hulkenberg - Sauber

5. Lewis Hamilton - Mercedes

6. Fernando Alonso - Ferrari

7. Nico Rosberg - Mercedes

8. Jenson Button - McLaren

9. Felipe Massa - Ferrari

10. Sergio Perez - McLaren

11. Esteban Gutierrez - Sauber

12. Valtteri Bottas - Williams

13. Pastor Maldonado - Williams

14. Charles Pic - Caterham

15. Geido van der Garde - Caterham

16. Jules Bianchi - Marussia

17. Max Chilton - Marussia

R. Jean-Eric Vergne - Toro Rosso - mechanical

R. Daniel Ricciardo - Toro Rosso - mechanical

R. Adrian Sutil - Force India - Accident damage

R. Mark Webber- Red Bull - accident/fire

R. Paul di Resta - Force India - accident

all photo's taken from autosport.com 

The Korean Forecast

The Korean Grand Prix doesn’t seem to be a much loved venue for the Formula 1 fraternity. Stuck in the middle of nowhere (attracting nobody), the circuit is situated in a half built complex, which I’m sure was meant to be completed some time ago. A lot of the hotels in the area are somewhat dubiously dubbed love hotels; I suppose that has a kind of charm!

But that actual track is pretty good, some long straights, with a flowing fast section followed by a slowed down more street course style on the way back, with concrete walls bordering the circuit. It’s got two DRS zones, one on the start finish straight followed immediately by another after turn one.

Pirelli are bringing the medium and super-soft compounds, which is a slightly more conservative choice than last year, and depending on degradation levels will make for an interesting strategy call. The medium at least should provide a durable tyre as we’ve had now for the last few races.

Whether the dry tyres come into play on the Sunday is another matter as rain is forecast for the drivers to enjoy. Practice and qualifying should be dry though, so we should see a normal grid with a chance of a mixed up race which is always a good thing. It’s been ages since we have a proper wet race, it’s about time we had one.

Despite Sebastian Vettel playing down his chances for this weekend how could you bet against him? Winner of the last three races, he’s also won here the last two years. Vettel is driving better than ever and his Red Bull appears to just be getting quicker and quicker. This isn’t a driver team combination that you can talk down its chances.

Putting that to one side however, there’s still a chance for Mercedes. They probably would have had a podium in Singapore if not for the safety car, so they’re still around fighting, and despite Nico Rosberg edging Lewis Hamilton at the last round, you just never know what Lewis can extract from a car. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Mercedes back on pole position here. They like long straights and twists and turns, so they should certainly be a factor.

But I don’t really wish to play up their chances because let’s face it, Vettel will be near the front, if he’s near the front and gets into the lead, he’ll win. He’s fooling nobody by saying others might be favourites. No they’re not. It’s foolish to think at the moment that this season has been anything other than a demonstration of Red Bull domination.

However, again Ferrari, or rather Fernando Alonso stole a second place, he can do that here too. He’s the only other winner at this track, and will be determined to not let this championship die just yet. It’s not completely over, one retirement and a win for this Ferrari driver and it’ll suddenly be much closer.

I will predict that Kimi Raikkonen’s back injury will be ok this weekend. It seemed to plague him at Singapore but he managed to get on the podium from 13^th. I really can’t wait to see him back in a Ferrari against Alonso.

Felipe Massa is the occupier of that Ferrari seat at the moment and he feels like he’s let off the leash so will again be out for himself as he looks to secure a new seat with specifically Lotus in mind. I think Romain Grosjean will be one to watch. In my opinion he is getting better, and he looked good in Singapore; it was unfortunate he suffered a car failure otherwise it would have been his Lotus on the podium. Even though he was visibly upset about it, I think he’s maturing into what will one day be a Grand Prix winner.

Let’s not forget Mark Webber. He crashed in 2010 which caused an almost knockout blow to his one shot at the title. I would love to see Webber finally get a win this year, and put some of those bad memories to rest.

Toro Rosso’s should be strong again, while Paul di Resta in the Force India was showing good form at the last race before crashing. He should have been around sixth, so perhaps it’s worth watching the Silverstone team, it looks like they might finally be getting an understanding of the tyres.

Other drivers to watch include Sergio Perez and Nico Hulkenberg, who might, just might be fighting over the McLaren seat. Hulkenberg’s most likely destination should be Lotus, but Perez hasn’t exactly sparkled in his debut McLaren season. Having said that I don’t think he’s done badly either and deserves a second shot at the big time. Hulkenberg just deserves a shot, Sauber need to provide with another chance to shine before the year is out. He’s in danger of being left in the midfield again, or worse.

Finally watch out for Esteban Gutierrez again. Points, he’s going to get points this time.

So pole position will go to a Mercedes (probably a Red Bull) with the win being a battle between the Silver squad and the cans of drinks (Vettel will win), while if it rains, it’s wide open (Vettel is a bit good in the wet).

all photo's taken from autosport.com