The Australian Grand Prix Forecast

Round 1 - Australia, Melbourne, Albert Park

Laps - 58

Pirelli compounds - Soft and Medium.

DRS Zones  - Two, on the start finish straight and between turns two and three.

Weather - Cloudy with temperatures hitting 23C on race day.

TV - Live on Skysports F1 (UK 5am lights out) and highlights on the BBC.

Pick a winner - Nico Rosberg to get his title challenge off to the perfect start for Mercedes.

Hot topics:

Sauber driver issues are likely to be discussed in the paddock this weekend. Giedo van der Garde was test driver for the Swiss team and claimed he had a valid contract for a 2015 race seat which has found to be correct by the Australian courts despite Sauber appealing. It's all rather messy and reflects badly on the team. Although there are various reasons behind it, in short Sauber needed more money from their drivers so hired Felipe Nasr and Marcus Ericsson instead of honouring van der Garde's contract. I'd still expect Nasr and Ericsson to race although that would risk Sauber being in contempt of court. It of course will eventually bring the discussion round to why the team reneged on a deal anyway, and of course that is money.

Fernando Alonso's accident and subsequent concussion is still a story full of intrigue and conspiracy. The likelihood is he got caught out, crashed, bumped his head, had a concussion and then doctors ruled him out. But apparently it's far more fun to think of more outlandish theories. Although it doesn't help that there has been contrasting information.

I think the grid are going to be stunned by just how far in front Mercedes are. This race is going to be all about Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg. It wasn't all fun and games this time last year, but it would certainly have been more relaxed as now they know where they stand with each other when it comes to the title fight. One has to strike first.

Manor's (formerly Marussia) resurrection is truly remarkable. Backed by OVO energy boss Stephen Fitzpatrick with ex-Sainsbury's CEO Justin King as interim chairman, Manor have been brought back to life. Team President Graeme Lowdon has worked tirelessly over the winter to get the team to Melbourne. Yes they'll struggle with an updated 2014 car, but work on a 2015 car is ongoing.

Predicting the headlines:

17 year old Max Verstappen for sensational debut.

McLaren to finish and score points.

Mercedes to dominate, Rosberg to shock Hamilton with overtake.

Williams, Ferrari fight for the podium but Ricciardo snatches it at the last.

Grosjean to comfortably score points in Lotus renaissance.

Vettel and Kimi rejuvenated for Ferrari.

Under the radar:

Power units are meant to be louder than last year according to those who attended testing. Of course this positive bit of news will be hushed as the powers that be have no intention of promoting their sport in a positive light.

Cost cutting will be a major talking point but one which might well be shoved aside as everyone's just relieved and amazed they've somehow managed to get 20 cars on the grid, when at some points over the winter it might have barely reached 16. Lots of deals including prize money advances have been done for some teams to get them to Australia. This year is going to be a struggle for many as the sport tries to find a way to overcomplicate matters further instead of just splitting the £1.8 billion income fairly.

The title chase:

It's already looking like it'll be an all Mercedes battle again. It could go one of two ways, Lewis Hamilton, full of confidence dominates the year or Rosberg has reset and come back stronger and takes the fight to the last race once again. I'm not going to rule out everyone else just yet either. It's the second year of fairly stable regulations, a lot of teams have huge room for development, while Mercedes could already be peaking. Of course that might just be hopeless optimism. We'll learn more when the lights go out on Sunday.

all photos taken from autosport.com

Let battle commence

The engines are about to roar (slightly louder) into life as the teams prepare in Melbourne for the opening round of the 2015 Formula 1 world championship. Testing, as always, has given us a vague picture of what to expect, but there has been enough to colour in some of the outlines we've been presented with.

I'd love to be sitting here about to write that this could be the most unpredictable season in years but I can tell no lies. Mercedes, like last year, are sitting at the top of the pile with if anything an increased margin of superiority despite the drivers saying the set up isn't great. Lewis Hamilton has remarked he'd like more competition from outside his own team but for now at least it's looking more likely that we're going to be seeing Lewis up against his team mate Nico Rosberg once again.

That's no bad thing, despite the sports apparent inability to promote the good things about Formula 1 such as the new power unit technology which saw the cars given faster motors using a third less fuel, or the fantastic wheel to wheel on track action we saw, last year was an epic contest between the two Mercedes team mates.

I think we can expect more of the same. Rosberg will come back stronger from his defeat. He'll have to if wants to stand a chance. He needs to lay down an early marker, particularly in wheel to wheel combat to show he's not going to be a walk over. Rosberg is a deep thinker, and he'll have analysed everything from last year to return to battle a more complete driver. Despite some circumstances which went against Lewis, Rosberg has already shown he is a match in qualifying, but the races are where the points are delivered.

If Rosberg has stepped up a level this year, then will it be enough to be champion? I'd hazard a guess and say no. Lewis is too strong a driver, too great a racer and perhaps the ultimate over taker. He will have the confidence of being champion, of having taken 11 wins in 2014 to Rosberg's mere five. Lewis will be supremely confident and he seemed to have sorted his mental fragility, particularly in the run in to the final race when he took six wins from the final seven races.

However, he has once again broken up with his on-off girlfriend Nicole Scherzinger. If his mood is not positive then he can break, and Rosberg could infiltrate the positivity from 2014 and erode it with a few early victories. When the reliability problems struck Lewis in the early going last year, there were times when he seemed to be questioning if the team were treating each of their drivers fairly. That way, darkness leads. But I believe Lewis will carry on where he left off in 2014, and despite a stronger challenge from Rosberg, he'll claim a third title to match his hero Ayrton Senna. But, there's plenty to say otherwise.

Behind Mercedes comes a tight pack of Williams, Ferrari and Red Bull. Williams have the all important Mercedes power unit which has been improved. They also have Valtteri Bottas who is a likely future champion and is working methodically towards a first Grand Prix victory. Felipe Massa already has 11 of those from his time at Ferrari and on his day could well earn another one. Either one could grab a win should Mercedes falter.

Ferrari have made changes. A lot of changes. Their new chassis seems good, and the power unit has been improved greatly. The most obvious staff change is the hiring of Sebastian Vettel in place of Fernando Alonso. Kimi Raikkonen remains despite an atrocious 2014 campaign where he was soundly thrashed by Alonso. However, the new Ferrari has left Kimi smiling (which is odd), the car is much more suited to him and he should bounce back with a decent campaign. 

I think eyebrows were raised when Vettel was hired for the Scuderia despite it being known Ferrari had coveted Red Bull's prodigal son for some time. Here was a team letting go of Alonso and hiring Vettel, a driver who was in the process of being fairly beaten by Daniel Ricciardo. But all was not as it seemed for Vettel in 2014. He'd just come off the back of four consecutive seasons as world champion and was faced with a car that was not doing what he wanted it to do.

No one else had maximised the exhaust blown diffusers as well as Vettel that had been banned for 2014. It left him slightly at a loss as the back end of the car would no longer stick the way he wanted it to. The Renault power unit left a title challenge unachievable and Ricciardo had given him a hurry up that he couldn't respond to as he adapted to regulations he didn't like for a title he wouldn't win. It's little wonder his motivation waned a little.

In winter testing you could see the smile was back, he's excited by the new challenge of emulating his hero Michael Schumacher to take Ferrari back to the top. He'll be challenged by Kimi this year, but I can't see Vettel not winning this battle. He may even sneak a win given the right circumstances, but this is a rejuvenated driver, and over the coming years I expect Ferrari to get stronger, as there's not many who work as hard as Vettel to achieve success.

Red Bull are probably not feeling optimistic. Renault haven't made the strides they wanted them to, but yet another decent chassis and the promise of improvements for their power unit should see them comfortably battling for best of the rest, particularly as the season develops. They've hired Daniil Kvyat as Vettel's replacement. He's only had a year in F1 but he'll make a good impression but I don't expect him to outshine the star of 2014 Daniel Ricciardo.

Ricciardo was brilliant last season, taking apart his four time champion team mate to the extent that even before Vettel announced his departure it already appeared to be Daniel's team. I think we can expect more of the same and despite looking like they might be slightly adrift of Williams and Ferrari at the moment it would come as no surprise to see Ricciardo being the one to force a win if Mercedes have problems, or even if they don't. I just hope the wait for Renault improvements doesn't hold him back too much but I think he'll be fighting for podiums all year long.

Toro Rosso have looked fairly rapid in testing. They have the youngest driver line up on the grid with Max Verstappen at 17 and Carlos Sainz Jnr at 20 combining to make an age which is just two years older than Jenson Button.

Verstappen is the prodigy and throughout testing he's looked calm and assured. I expect some good results from him and some outstanding performances. Sainz has looked a little wilder, but I think both will have their day in the sun with Verstappen the one who will be keeping Kvyat on his toes.

Lotus look a lot better this season. The chassis is improved and the switch to Mercedes power should give them an immediate pace injection. Romain Grosjean will deliver them the points while Pastor Maldonado should be able to deliver debris and a few starring results.

Sauber looked too quick in testing, but it did reinforce the belief that Ferrari have made significant improvements to their power unit. Felipe Nasr and Marcus Ericsson have brought significant funds to the team but both are race winners in GP2 and are capable of delivering results. The Swiss team shouldn't suffer another pointless campaign as they did last season.

Force India didn't bring their new car out until there were just two and a half days of testing left. To their credit it ran reliably pretty much throughout clocking some significant mileage. They might be lingering towards the rear of the field at first but I think they'll soon get it all sorted out and be racing for points. Sergio Perez will likely spring a couple of surprise results as is his way, while Nico Hulkenberg will once again produce a decent season worthy of a top team taking a punt on him.

However, he's signed up for a Le Mans driver with Porsche this year and I can see him joining those ranks permanently at some point. I fear a career in a top car may well have slipped past him.

Marussia, or Manor, are back on the grid. They've adjusted their 2014 car to 2015 spec with a full 2015 car due out later in the season. It's a great story to have them back on the grid bringing the total number of cars up to an acceptable 20. With no testing and running a year old engine it'll be remarkable if they actually qualify for the race, but it's great to have them back anyway. Formula 1 needs these teams. So far they have signed Will Stevens who did a decent job for Caterham in a one off race at the last race in Abu Dhabi. Roberto Mehri will fill the other seat for now.

And then we have McLaren Honda. I'm not talking about them last because I think they'll be bringing up the rear of the grid in Australia, although it is a possibility, but because there's no real place to put them. They've shown terrible reliability, the Honda isn't running smoothly, and they only just beat the total mileage of Force India despite having nine and a half days more running. Or more accurately sitting around in the garage as mechanics tried to fix the numerous issues.

Red Bull were in a terrible state this time last year and went on to take three wins. The thing is the Honda hasn't run anywhere near full power, their car has been given a Red Bull make over thanks to the acquisition of Peter Prodromou from the fizzy drinks team. They have Fernando Alonso and Jenson Button as drivers. There is a lot going for this team. I believe once they're up and running properly they're either going to be terrible or potential Mercedes challengers. Significantly, despite the woes the team are said to be still quietly confident. Or maybe it's just blind optimism.

Of course it's not just on the technical front that there have been set backs. In the second test Alonso crashed leaving him with a concussion which has ruled him out of the opening race. Kevin Magnussen will step up hoping to show the team exactly why they should have kept him instead of Button.

The whole Alonso affair is steeped with conspiracy theories. It does seem odd about some of the information or lack of information that has come out about the accident, but I hope we'll see Alonso ready to go for the second round in Malaysia. Alonso is desperate to win another title and this is certainly not how he would have wanted to start his second stint at McLaren especially as Ferrari seem to have built a decent car again.

So Mercedes are out at the front, but with fairly stable regulations there's only so much more they can develop. I think the other teams will be coming for them towards the end of the season, but by then it'll be too late and we'll be celebrating a Mercedes driver as world champion. The question is which one?

all photos taken from autosport.com

Alonso to miss season opener in Australia

Fernando Alonso will miss the season opener in Australia on 15th March due to worries about second impact syndrome. A statement from McLaren reported by autosport.com says 'Fernando's doctors have recommended to him that, following the concussion he sustained in a testing accident on February 22nd, for the time being he should seek to limit as far as is possible any environmental risk factors that could potentially result in his sustaining another concussion so soon after his previous one'.

Alonso has been allowed to return to training in preparation for the Malaysian Grand Prix two weeks later on the 29th March. It's a strange situation as there has been conflicting information about the accident in winter testing after which Alonso spent three days in hospital.

McLaren boss Ron Dennis suggested Alonso hadn't got a concussion, but that is now known to be wrong. The doctors say physically he is fine and the Spaniard believes he is ready to race, however with concussion it is good to be safe.

Kevin Magnussen will replace Alonso, driving at the race where he made such an impact last season. It'll be a great opportunity for him to show up Jenson Button too, the man who was chosen ahead of him to partner Alonso this season.